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Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians
The Los Angeles Angels travel to Cleveland to take on the Guardians for Game 2 of a three-game series between these two American League teams. The Guardians are off to one of the best starts in the American League so far, going 20-12 to start the season and they are currently leading the AL Central division. They have lost six of their last 10 games, though, but they are 8-5 at home this season. The Angels have gotten off to a rough start at 12-20 this season, and they have won just three of their last 10 games overall. They are interestingly much better on the road at 8-9, but they are a brutal 6-16 against teams with winning records this season. Most notably, they are without Mike Trout who was added to the IL recently with a knee injury, and he will be out for a significant amount of time. That is obviously a massive loss for the Angels.
The Angels won the first game last night, 6-0, behind a great effort from Jose Soriano. He diced up the Guardians lineup and they clearly had no response when you see they were shut out. However, they traveled home the night before yesterday without an off day while the Angels were waiting for them in Cleveland, so I am not surprised to see a sleepy start to the series. I think we see a completely rejuvenated Guardians team today, a team that has looked more like the team that started the season 20-12.
The Angels are going with southpaw Reid Detmers to start this game and he has been great for them so far this season, going 3-2 with a 3.12 ERA in six starts. All three of his road starts have been very good, however, he is coming off his two worst outings of the season. He allowed four runs in seven innings pitched to a very good Orioles team, and then he allowed five runs in five innings pitched to a good Twins team. Both those teams are ranked in the top 5 in wOBA against lefties this season, and now he has to face a Guardians team that is ranked 10th in the league in wOBA against lefties this season. Ben Lively is starting for the Guardians and he is making his fourth start of the season. He is 0-1 with a 2.30 ERA, but he hasn't allowed more than two runs in any of his three outings. He has faced some very good lineups too in the Red Sox back-to-back and the Braves on the road. I am very impressed with his start to the season and I think he continues to find success against an Angels team that is ranked 13th in the league in wOBA against righties this season. However, we do have to remember that number isn't as representative of the quality of the Angels lineup right now without Mike Trout.
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The biggest difference between these teams are the bullpens. The Guardians are ranked third in the league with a 2.66 bullpen ERA. The Angels are ranked third worst in the league with a 5.28 bullpen ERA. Neither team had to use any of their top bullpen arms yesterday with the game being 6-0 pretty much the whole time. However, the Guardians have six different relievers with an ERA under 3.0 with more than 14 innings pitched in their bullpen. That is important because it means they don't need to extend Ben Lively more than necessary. They can use their bullpen for four innings and they don't drop off in terms of the quality, so they only need Lively to go five innings or so. The Angels do not have a single reliever who has pitched at least 14 innings with an ERA under 3.00 this season. Luis Garcia, Matt Moore and Carlos Estevez are their three best relievers and only one of them has an ERA below 4.00. Carlos Estevez is their closer with a 6.23 ERA on the season and he blew a save in his last outing. I like the Guardians to force a rubber game at home.
BEST BET
Cleveland Guardians Moneyline -135 vs. Los Angeles Angels (DraftKings)
