Trying to find the best home run props today? The process itself is pretty straightforward with the RotoBombs Home Run Props Tool.
After using it on tonight's slate, four names immediately jumped off the page.
📲 Combine this research with Rotowire Smart Money. Start a free trial today.
Find the Best Home Run Props Today
If you're having issues on mobile, tilt your phone to landscape mode.
I use the RotoBombs tool above, which takes every qualified hitter and starting pitcher over the last 15 days and throws everything into one environment-adjusted model: barrel rate, exit velocity, pull air%, blast contact, swing speed, HR/FB, EV allowed, fly-ball rate, barrel allowed, all of it. Then it layers in park factors and live RotoWire weather data before assigning every hitter-vs-pitcher matchup a weighted score from 0-10.
I loaded up all 15 games, hit analyze, and let the board sort itself. And honestly, if you've never used a projection model to cut through a 15-game MLB slate before the numbers move, this is probably a pretty good night to start.
Here's a look at RotoBomb's best home run bets today.
ATL's Drake Baldwin hit the IL today, excluding him from this article. He was RotoBomb's #3 HR hitter today. A good pivot from him would be any LHH Braves power bat, like Matt Olson.
1. Kyle Schwarber (PHI vs Gavin Williams) — 8.8
This wasn't even remotely close.
Schwarber completely nuked the board with a 44% barrel rate, a 52.9% HR/FB rate, and a 56% pull-air profile heading into Citizens Bank Park with weather helping pull-side power. Then you add in Gavin Williams allowing damage on four-seamers — the exact pitch Schwarber destroys — and it turns into the cleanest HR setup on the slate.
Honestly, if Schwarber gets one elevated tonight, there's a decent chance it leaves in a hurry.
Best Odds: +245 (FanDuel)
2. Corbin Carroll (ARI vs Tomoyuki Sugano) — 7.8
This is one of those spots where the dome actually helps because it removes all the noise.
Carroll's profile right now is exactly what you want for HR props:
- 21.1% barrel rate
- 52.6% pull rate
- elite pull-air profile
- consistent hard contact
Sugano's fastball usage and elevated HR/FB numbers are basically the weak point the model identified immediately. Carroll grades out as one of the cleanest pure metric plays on the board.
Best Odds: +360 (FanDuel)
3. Junior Caminero (TB vs Gerrit Cole) — 7.2
This is where the model started getting interesting.
Most people will avoid attacking Gerrit Cole by default, but RotoBombs clearly weighted the Tommy John return angle heavily. Historically, pitchers making their first start back tend to allow more damage than usual, especially early before command fully settles back in.
Caminero absolutely crushes velocity, especially four-seamers, and Yankee Stadium's conditions tonight only amplify the upside.
Very uncomfortable matchup if you're a Yankees fan.
Best Odds: +325 (Hard Rock Bet)
4. Jac Caglianone (KC vs Logan Gilbert) — 7.2
This was probably the biggest surprise name in the top five.
But once you dig in, it makes sense pretty quickly.
Caglianone's 55.2% pull rate was the highest mark on the entire slate, and Gilbert's recent EV-allowed and HR/FB metrics are exactly the type of cracks a hitter like Caglianone can exploit if he gets something elevated.
The recent form matters too. He's been squaring baseballs up consistently over the last couple weeks.
Best Odds: +500 (BetMGM)
Find More Home Run Props Today with Player Evals
The Player Eval tab is honestly where the tool becomes really useful.
You can type in literally any hitter and it'll spit back a verdict — PLAY, LEAN, or PASS — alongside the opposing pitcher's arsenal and a quick breakdown of what helps or hurts the matchup in plain English.
I tested it on Yordan Alvarez tonight because Wrigley's weather looked tempting. RotoBombs came back with a 6.9 and basically flagged it as a weather-assisted LEAN rather than a true smash spot because Taillon's curveball-heavy mix suppresses some of Alvarez's upside profile.
That's the kind of nuance you actually want from a tool like this.
📲 Combine this research with Rotowire Smart Money. Start a free trial today.
