Farm Futures: Ranking Dilemmas: Prospects 276-300

The indefinite suspension of MLB, MiLB and fantasy baseball seasons are obviously a minor inconvenience compared to everything else going on in the world. However, in an effort to provide a distraction during this difficult period, I am going to peel back the curtain of my top-400 prospect rankings. This 12th article will cover my updated 276-300 prospects. I will continue this series, working down my top-400 prospect rankings every week throughout this hiatus.

In addition to each player's rank, I have noted where I believe the tiers are in the rankings and where each prospect was ranked on 10/1/19 and 1/1/20 (there are now graphs on each player's page to show how their ranking on the top 400 has changed), to provide a glimpse of how my valuation of these prospects has evolved throughout the offseason and spring training. For the players who saw big jumps from 10/1/19 to 1/1/20, my evaluation of that player changed significantly when I was able to do a deep dive on them while writing their outlook (available at the top right of each player page) for the magazine. Sometimes when I'm writing up a player, I have that ah-ha moment where I realize they need to be bumped quite a bit higher/lower, which is why there is sometimes significant movement when games aren't being played. The tier from the 10th installment in this series that began with Andres Gimenez at No. 246 continues over to this week's list, so there is one big tier from 246-300.

Might Be Too Low

I'm content with where I have them ranked, but these are the players who I'm most worried about being too low on.

Hitter: Yeison Santana/Victor Bericoto/Anthony Rodriguez

Santana is a very good athlete who showed a good approach in his stateside debut. He should stick at shortstop for the foreseeable future, and is starting to tap into some power. If he continues on this trajectory, he could have four tools that are at least above-average with solid-average raw power. 

Bericoto was an absolute monster in the DSL and was rewarded with a brief taste of the AZL at the end of his debut season. He is a bat-first prospect all the way, as left field and first base are his two most likely positions, but the DH should also be an option in the National League by the time he reaches the majors. He has a patient approach and should have no trouble growing into at least 25-homer pop.

Rodriguez is a 6-foot-2, 165-pound switch-hitting Venezuelan shortstop who signed as part of the Giants' 2019 J-2 class. He has significant bat speed and is a good athlete with a great frame to grow into. I love his swing, particularly from the left side, and project him to grow into plus power. He has significant upside if he hits, which I think he will. The Giants have an excellent recent track record of getting their J-2 kids game ready ahead of their debuts.

Pitcher: Cristian Javier

I'm always on the lookout for pitchers with a chance for multiple plus pitches. Javier has zero plus pitches, which is why I've had a hard time rewarding his production with a spot in the top half of the top 400. However, on production alone, he certainly deserves a spot in that range. While he lacks a plus pitch, he throws around five distinct pitches and excels at keeping hitters guessing, showing advanced pitchability. Hitters will often tell you how good a pitcher is, and they simply don't hit Javier, which is why his WHIP figures are so low while his walk rates are on the high end. It's possible that he is able to carry over this success in the majors, which would mean I was way too low on him here, but I think it's more likely that he will settle in as more of a No. 4 or No. 5 starter against the best hitters in the world.

Might Be Too High

These are guys who I keep thinking I might have ranked a little bit too high.

Hitter: Estevan Florial/Kyle Lewis

Florial's combination of power and speed would typically be found 200-250 spots higher on the top 400, while his approach and hit tool don't belong anywhere near the list. I even dropped him from the rankings completely at the end of the 2019 season before deciding that might have been a bit of an overreaction. If we want to be generous, injuries contributed to some of his struggles last year. To be clear, I have zero faith in Florial hitting enough to more than a Keon Broxton type of toolshed fifth outfielder, but if I'm ranking the best 400 prospects for fantasy, there's a case for his inclusion, given his immense upside IF he does figure it out at the plate. You probably can't get much for him in a trade right now, but if I were rostering him, he would have been traded or released a year ago.

Where should a player rank who is in the majors and has impressive physical tools, but who probably won't hit enough to be a long-term regular? It's tempting to not rank Lewis at all. He struck out 29.4 percent of the time in his age-23/24 season at Double-A and then logged a 29:3 K:BB in 75 MLB plate appearances, so there is no reason to expect him to be productive in the short term. However, injuries earlier in his career greatly affected his development, so perhaps as he gets more and more uninterrupted reps under his belt, he will be able to improve significantly as a hitter. 

Pitcher: Bryse Wilson

I love watching Wilson pitch (bulldog mentality, etc.), but the fact is, he has stagnated. His fastball is his best pitch, and his changeup is good enough, but he has been unable to develop a quality breaking ball over the past few years. His fastball command has also been greatly lacking during his cups of coffee in the majors. Either the fastball command needs to be better and more consistent, or he needs to develop a useful breaking ball. Otherwise, he projects for a seventh or eighth inning role. 

Feel free to ask me any prospect-related questions in the comments section or on Twitter.