FanDuel is giving us a seven-game main slate Saturday with starts between 4:05 and 4:10 p.m. EDT. Unlike Friday where we had a plethora of pitching depth, this slate only has three arms priced at $9,000 or greater, which will either force your hand at paying up, or can conceivably allow you to punt the position and go cheap while loading up on offense.
Padres-Royals is our lone game with a double-digit run total at 11.0, while four others sit at 9.0 or 9.5. The Phillies (-164) are the slate's biggest favorite, followed by the Brewers (-134); nothing overwhelming so it should be a relatively competitive slate. Rain needs to be monitored in Philadelphia, while early wind reports look blustery and outbound in Boston, potentially offering a major offensive boost.
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Pitching
Shane Drohan, MIL vs. MIA ($8,300): For a slate like this, I can begin by asking if I'll target Marlins bats. With the answer to that being unlikely to no, we can then turn to Drohan, as it seems whatever Milwaukee does on the mound at least turns to bronze, if not silver or gold. Drohan has gone for 21.0 FanDuel points or better in eight straight, four times topping 30 including three straight. The Marlins strike out 23.6 percent of the time against lefties, helping create a fair 3-3.5x expectancy.
Trevor Rogers, BAL at HOU ($8,200): If we ask the same question here regarding the Astros offense, the answer is a definite maybe, so Rogers isn't a slam dunk. But the form is too good to ignore for the price. He's allowed just two runs in his last four starts and three or fewer in seven straight, lowering his ERA from 6.96 to 4.48. While unlikely to continue, Yordan Alvarez is 0-for-3 against him with two strikeouts, while the Astros overall sit 15th with a below average 97 wRC+ off lefties.
Owen Murphy, ATL vs. TEX ($6,500): Murphy is a bit of an unknown with just four innings under his belt, and how long he'll last is a major question Saturday. But he's also $200 cheaper than Griffin Canning, whom we know we aren't using, so if you're paying down, take a stab at some swing-and-miss from a guy who has 92 Ks in 81 minor league innings and four in his limited big league career. Texas is right at league average against righties with a 100 wRC+. Five innings, five strikeouts and a couple of runs allowed can get the job done at this number.
Top Targets
Rain is a concern, but if Edmundo Sosa ($2,600) starts and hits fifth, then the top five of the Phillies order will all have a homer off Sean Manaea with only Kyle Schwarber ($4,100) not hitting at least .316 off him, all with double-digit plate appearances. Feel free to target Schwarber or Bryce Harper ($3,700) on the high end, and Trea Turner ($3,000), Alec Bohm ($2,700) or Sosa on the low end.
We've got to confirm these potential winds in Boston, but if and when we do, this game and its 9.5 run total seems incredibly low. Junior Caminero ($4,000) had three hits across yesterday's double header and appears healthy. He flirts with a must play, posting a .445 wOBA, 189 wRC+ and .274 ISO off lefties.
Bargain Bats
Canning hasn't been incredibly awful over his last three outings, allowing "just" five runs 13.0 innings, but he's still being pelted by lefties, allowing a .422 wOBA and 1.098 OPS to them on the road. Kansas City gives us a plethora of options to consider, including Carter Jensen ($3,100), Vinnie Pasquantino ($2,900) and Jac Caglianone ($2,800).
Austin Riley ($2,700) gives a cheap entry into Atlanta's lineup and its 4.8 run expectancy. He homered last night (off a position player) and is 4-for-12 off MacKenzie Gore. Perhaps we can buy low here on a second-half resurgence.
Stack to Consider
Red Sox vs. Ian Seymour (Rays): Willson Contreras ($3,700), Wilyer Abreu ($3,100), Ceddanne Rafaela ($3,000)
Seymour has shown some great swing-and-miss stuff, but he brings a 5.87 road ERA into Saturday and a massive 50.9 percent fly ball rate. If we really do have 20 MPH outbound winds, good luck to him. Conteras is raking against lefties, posting a .419 wOBA, 168 wRC+ and .289 ISO. Seymour has been slightly more vulnerable to lefties, putting Abreu and his .411/162/.182 in play. Rafaela goes .376/138/.240 and gives us a third top of order piece.
