FanDuel's Friday main slate is a massive 12-gamer, with first pitch at 7:05 p.m. EDT. It's a curious one on the bump with only one pitcher being priced in five-figures, and he's the White Sox's Davis Martin ($10,400). Not sure anyone had that on their preseason bingo card, but he's run off six straight games of 40-plus fantasy points and is certainly in a favorable spot at San Francisco. Just five more are in the 9k tier.
The lack of high-priced pitching is very much not supported by the run totals. No game has a double-digit mark; Braves-Nationals is our highest number at 9.0. Atlanta is our largest favorite at (-225), followed by Arizona (-190). It's suddenly (and thankfully) gotten cool across the East, and we'll need to track rain concerns in Baltimore and Atlanta.
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Pitching
Jacob deGrom, TEX at LAA ($9,700): He's coming off of a game in which he allowed four homers and now has surrendered 10 on the season. But I'm expecting a massive bounce-back here, and the question then becomes is everyone else, too? The Angels strike out at a massive 26.4 percent mark against righties, posting just a .298 wOBA and 87 wRC+. Their 3.2 run expectancy is the slate's second-lowest.
Kevin Gausman, TOR vs. PIT ($8,500): Gausman is a bit of an enigma; we're used to him being higher priced, but his strikeout rate (8.3 per nine) limits his upside. So does a matchup with Pittsburgh, who is third in the league with a .337 wOBA and 112 wRC+ off righties, striking out just 21.5 percent of the time. But they still come with a meager 3.4 run expectancy, and Toronto (-164) is a decent favorite. Gausman has gone six-plus in six of his 10 starts, so some clean innings can get us to a quality start and potentially a win.
Trevor McDonald, SF vs. CWS ($8,200): I'm a tad disappointed at this price point and would prefer to highlight someone cheaper as a pay-down option. If you're looking to punt pitching, either Chris Bassitt ($6,900) or Jack Flaherty ($6,800) look appealing if rain doesn't cause issues. But McDonald gives us the opposite side of the higher-priced Martin mentioned above in a game where neither side is expected to score four runs. Chicago fans at a 24.5 percent clip against righties, and McDonald is just two outs from having three quality starts in as many outings. He's likely pitching to secure a rotation spot moving forward and has looked terrific; his 2.37 ERA comes with a 2.77 xFIP, and his 64.8 percent ground ball rate limits damage.
Top Targets
Eury Perez has allowed 19 runs across his last 26.1 innings. The splits say target righties against him, but I don't trust anything the Mets offer there. Consider that as a sneaky stack, or just play Juan Soto ($3,900), who's taken him deep in four at-bats and is hitting .385 with four homers in his last seven.
The matchup profile is very similar to Perez for Noah Cameron in that the lefty has targetable splits to left-handed bats, but the Mariners don't have top options there. Julio Rodriguez ($3,300) finally is seeing a price increase, but it's still not massive. He has a .443 wOBA, 192 wRC+ and .373 ISO off southpaws.
Bargain Bats
It hasn't been pretty for Pittsburgh's Bubba Chandler, pitching to a 5.14 ERA and 5.65 xFIP, so I wouldn't fault stacking Blue Jays. But it's lefties doing him in, something Toronto is short on. Daulton Varsho ($2,800) looks like a nice stand-alone option. He'll slot atop the order and is hitting .341 over his last 13.
Is anyone really buying Nick Martinez' results? His 1.51 ERA comes with a 4.23 xFIP and he's striking out just 5.9 per nine. The Yankees have a 4.9 run expectancy. Maybe rounding out your build with a secondary piece pops. Jose Caballero ($2,900) has four-position eligibility, and with Spencer Jones being sent back to Triple-A, Trent Grisham ($2,900) figures to be healthy to start here.
Rain potential is enough to keep me away from a Braves stack. But what are we doing with Michael Harris ($2,900) at this price? He's homered three times in three games and is 5-for-11 against Miles Mikolas, who is a target every time he pitches.
Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Tomoyuki Sugano (Rockies): Corbin Carroll ($4,000), Ketel Marte ($3,200), Geraldo Perdomo ($3,000)
Sugano is making his second straight start against the Diamondbacks, and while he hasn't been incredibly awful, his 4.02 ERA comes with an elevated 4.94 xFIP, and he's been lit up by lefties, allowing a .405 wOBA overall, which only falls to .396 on the road. Marte is a terrific stand-alone play, as his price hasn't caught up to his surging form, hitting .341 with two homers and seven extra-base hits in his last 12. Carroll isn't a must-play given the price, but he's hitting .333 with two homers, eight extra-base hits and 10 walks in his last 12. The third piece is a struggle, as Perdomo hasn't been right all year but he gives us a third lefty atop the order. This unfortunately feels pretty obvious and chalky.
Rangers vs. Grayson Rodriguez (Angels): Jake Burger ($3,200), Josh Jung ($3,100), Ezequiel Duran ($3,000)
With the low scoring totals overall, stacking Friday is a challenge, and there should be enough nuggets above to consider other stacking options that are far safer. But perhaps the untrustworthy Ranger bats can offer some upside as low-rostered GPP plays. Rodriguez got lit up for seven runs and seven hits in his first 3.2 innings after just 9.2 minor league rehab frames, and the Angels bullpen has the league's highest ERA at 5.62. Jung has been Texas' most stable option and brings a .382 wOBA and 146 wRC+ off righties into Friday. Duran has four-position eligibility and is hitting .333 with eight RBI in his last six. Burger is hitting .371 with three homers in his last 10, giving us some power upside.
