Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, June 11
MLB 2026 betting record: 16-25-1, -10.71 units
Just over half of MLB's 30 teams are in action today, providing us with an eight-game betting slate for Thursday's contests.
I'm making four bets across three of those games, including two predictions from the Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates matchup early this evening.
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Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Predictions and Best Bets
Ozzie Albies over 0.5 runs/RBIs (-127 DraftKings)
Albies is having a major bounce-back season. He's hitting for more power, striking out at a career-low rate and is producing well-above average offense, per wRC+, for the first time since 2023.
The second baseman is batting over .300 vs. southpaws and slugging north of .500, continuing his career trend of providing better production against left-handed pitching. Albies is a career .325 hitter vs. lefties with an .885 OPS, compared to 245/.734 vs. righties.
He'll see a southpaw tonight in White Sox starter Anthony Kay and will be hitting out of a prime lineup spot. Against a righty, Albies was slotted in the No. 2 hole yesterday — behind Michael Harris, who hit leadoff for the first time this season — after nearly three weeks straight batting cleanup.
With the way Albies is swinging the bat (.333/.382/.556 in June) and Ronald Acuna Jr. sidelined, perhaps that combo sticks up top regardless of the pitcher. What matters most, though, is that we know Albies will be in a good spot. Hitting second in front of Matt Olson — fourth in MLB in RBIs — is an excellent way to score. And hitting behind Olson is a great way to drive one in, plus Harris (.852 OPS) should help Albies out here, too, in some capacity.
Chicago's Kay is part of why Albies is my target. Kay has been obliterated by right-handed batters, surrendering a .300/.387/.511 line. He has allowed nine of his 10 homers to them and enters with a bottom-10th percentile xERA (5.87).
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Predictions and Best Bets
Dodgers -0.5, first five innings (-125 DraftKings)
Freddie Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+100 BetMGM)
I like this matchup for the Dodgers against a struggling Mitch Keller and the Pirates. But we can do better than paying a -170 price for them to win. That's why I'm turning my attention to the F5 market.
Los Angeles starts Justin Wrobleski, who continues to deal without big swing-and-miss stuff. Wrobleski enters with a 2.62 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and one of the best walk rates among starters. According to Odds Shark, the Dodgers are 8-2 in the first five innings across the southpaw's 10 starts.
No team in baseball has led through five innings more than the Dodgers. They have the second-best team ERA in that spot and rank second in runs per game. They've scored five-plus runs in four straight.
Wrobleski gets a Pirates team that's 25th in wRC+ vs. lefties. Meanwhile the Dodgers get Keller, who has been hit hard in four of his last five starts. Over that stretch, Keller has allowed 32 hits in 26 innings, posting an 8.31 ERA.
I expect the Dodgers to get to him and I see value backing Freddie Freeman on his total bases prop. There aren't many operators serving this at even money, making a +100 price on Freeman appealing.
The Dodgers star posted a .928 OPS in May and has started off June with a .351/.400/.568 line. He's recorded two-plus bases in six of nine June games and has cashed this prop at a top-15 rate in MLB, per Team Rankings.
Freeman has made a career of demolishing right-handed pitching, and this season is no different. The veteran is batting .307 and slugging .534 vs. righties (.225/.352 against LHPs), bashing all but two of his 10 homers off them.
While the sample is small and not entirely telling, Freeman is 9-for-18 in his career vs. Keller, striking out twice. Following Keller will be a Pirates bullpen that has the 24th-ranked ERA (4.95) over the last 30 days.
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Predictions and Best Bets
Rockies to win (+135 Caesars Sportsbook)
If you're looking for an underdog, I think you can do worse than the Rockies to complete the sweep of the Cubs.
The Cubs are 5-8 since dropping a season-high 10 games in a row. They've been playing bad baseball for a while. The Rockies have been, too, but these teams don't look much different over the last month.
Colorado has been MLB's worst offense this season. In the last 30 days, however, the club has outslugged the Cubs. They top them in OBP, have nearly 30 points on them in batting average, and have scored almost 30 more runs.
Yes, park factors matter, which is why the Cubs barely edge them in wRC+. But this Chicago team has been reeling and Edward Cabrera has not delivered in his first season with the club.
Cabrera was mauled in his first start back from the IL last week (eight runs, eight hits, three homers), and has allowed three-plus runs in every start outside of his first two this season. He's been getting barrelled up at one of the highest rates in the game, per Baseball Savant, and will be pitching at Coors Field.
Chicago certainly has a bullpen edge, but the gap is probably smaller than what ERA indicates, as the group doesn't miss many bats and has served up plenty of homers, leading to a FIP that's only slightly better than Colorado's.
While I'm not saying Ryan Feltner gives the Rockies a starting pitching advantage, he has thrown well. Feltner has allowed one run over his last two starts, going six innings each time out. Both outings were at home.
His underlying metrics aren't great, but Feltner has been rotation-worthy and, not long ago, was an intriguing arm with good velocity and multiple offerings to turn to.
MLB Picks Recap
•Ozzie Albies over 0.5 runs/RBIs (-127 DraftKings)
•Dodgers -0.5, first five innings (-125 DraftKings)
•Freddie Freeman over 1.5 total bases (+100 BetMGM)
•Rockies to win (+135 Caesars Sportsbook)
