A busy 13-game slate is on tap Friday evening at FanDuel, getting underway at 7:05 p.m. EDT. Jacob Misiorowski ($11,400) leads three pitchers priced in five-figures, but just two more are priced at $9,000 or greater, so if you're a pay down guy, you'll be tested here.
While the bottom tier of arms is pretty gross, it's not fully reflected in the run totals, as no game reaches double-digits. Orioles-Nationals and Rockies-Twins, despite no Coors Field, are the high points at 9.0 runs, while four games sit at a slate-low 7.5. The Brewers are massive (-270) favorites, but it thins out after, with the Twins (-162) having the second lowest odds. Rain chances need to be monitored in Baltimore and St. Louis, though postponements as of Friday morning seem unlikely. Early wind reports seem favorable for our three West Coast games, and possibly in Chicago and New York. Perhaps the best chance for impact is San Francisco.
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Pitching
Will Warren, NYY at BOS ($9,200): All three five-figure arms are worthy, it's simply a matter of whether you can afford them. I'll simply highlight some of the remaining options. Warren likely doesn't have a 40 FanDuel point performance in him, having done so in just four of his 15 starts. He's got some puzzling splits; a 2.94 road ERA with a 4.64 xFIP, and his strikeout rate is down almost four per nine outside of Yankee Stadium. But Boston comes with a league-low 84 wRC+ off righties and they don't take walks at just 7.8 percent. Efficiency hasn't been Warren's friend, but there's hope that changes here and we can get a three-times-plus return.
Taj Bradley, MIN vs. COL ($8,800): Strictly a matchup play, as Bradley hasn't reached 30 FDP since May 23. Colorado comes with a low 3.8 run expectancy, fans 22.1 percent against righties while posting a below average 96 wRC+. Bradley has been good for a strikeout per inning on average, and has been marginally better at home, particularly in not allowing homers, which have plagued him in recent starts, allowing six in his last three outings.
Joey Cantillo, CLE vs. SEA ($7,900): Cantillo has quietly allowed just two runs and 10 hits across his last two starts, fanning 13 across as many innings. Seattle counters with the league's second-worst offense against lefties, bringing a weak 80 wRC+, .277 wOBA and .116 ISO into Friday. Josh Naylor's .263 average is the best on the team across the last 14 days, and Cantillo's 41.3 ground ball rate should further help limit damage. He's pounding the zone of late, especially with his curveball, and nothing suggests the Mariners will take advantage if he hangs a few.
Top Targets
Colin Rea has been horrible on the road (7.14 ERA, 5..40 xFIP), allowing a .408 wOBA to lefties. Building around Brice Turang ($3,900), who has 12 hits in his last 11, and/or a slumping Christian Yelich ($3,500) seems like a reasonable starting point.
Bryce Harper ($3,900) has four multi-hit games in his last six. Zach Thornton has just 4.1 big league innings, and they didn't go particularly well, as he allowed four runs in 4.1 innings. A similar outing can be anticipated.
Wyatt Langford ($3,200) isn't priced appropriately. He's homered in four of his last seven and has 20 hits across his last 13 games, driving in 15. Toronto's Patrick Corbin paired with low prices certainly makes Texas a stacking consideration.
Bargain Bats
Baltimore-Washington is a game where the total suggests we need shares, but I find it difficult to single out. Trevor Rogers has pitched better of late and has been tough on lefties, potentially eliminating the Nationals big two. Andrew Alvarez has been solid overall, and Baltimore's LvL splits aren't ideal. Dylan Crews ($2,800) is hitting .370 over his last seven, and Taylor Ward ($3,100) has two homers in his last six, offering potential different entries into the expected scoring.
Similarly, we can't ignore the Twins and their 5.6 run expectancy. Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed 11 runs in his last three road starts, spanning 14.2 frames, and lefties get him more readily. Trevor Larnach ($2,800) should lead off, and is hitting .371 with two homers and two doubles in his last 10.
It may not be right, but it's certainly not wrong to consider Francisco Lindor ($2,800) at this price as there's ample upside and name recognition. He's a reasonable 9-for-34 (.265) with a homer off Zack Wheeler.
Stacks to Consider
Rays vs. Zac Gallen (Diamondbacks): Yandy Diaz ($3,700), Junior Caminero ($3,400), Jonathan Aranda ($3,400)
It certainly looks like Gallen is done; allowing nine runs in his last start and at least four in four of five. He's been worse on the road, too, where righties have a .433 wOBA and 1.011 OPS and lefties .406/.945. This certainly isn't cheap or positionally friendly, but taking the top of the Rays lineup seems to make ample sense. We can't chase Caminero's three-homer Thursday, but he's hitting .320 over his last 13, making for a nice singular play. Diaz is hitting .480 in his last seven and Aranada .393. Perhaps this is too obvious?
Braves vs. Trevor McDonald (Giants): Matt Olson ($3,600), Drake Baldwin ($3,500), Michael Harris ($3,200)
McDonald doesn't figure to last long here, be it performance or pitch count, having maxed out at 5.0 innings across his last four. But he's being pelted by lefties, allowing a .408 wOBA which rises to .443 at home with a 1.037 OPS. Atlanta's offense is in a bad way right now, which has decreased prices across the board. There also seems to be favorable double-digit outbound winds if these three can lift the ball against a ground ball pitcher. Baldwin is hitless in his last 22 with 14 strikeouts, so it's a leap of faith rostering him at this price, but know it will come with low percentages. Olson hasn't homered since June 12, so perhaps he's due. Harris meanwhile has returned to health and is hitting .300 over his last five since a three-game absence, making for a fine stand alone option.
