Saturday's main slate at FanDuel includes seven games with first pitch at 7:10 p.m. EDT. The slate is largely void of aces on the mound as Texas' Jack Leiter ($9,800) leads the way pricing-wise against the Dodgers; that's a hard and obvious no for nearly everyone.
The betting lines don't exactly follow the lack of elite pitching, as the highest run totals are 8.5. As always, the Dodgers are the biggest favorites at (-188), followed by the Brewers (-178) and Padres (-172). Weather overall looks like a complete nonfactor; there's no rain and minimal winds everywhere.
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Pitching
Kyle Harrison, MIL vs. WSH ($8,500): If paying a premium is our tried and true strategy, Logan Webb ($8,900) is my preference for stability. But this slate doesn't seem to make that plan a necessity. The Nationals bring a 24.3 percent K rate against lefties to the table, and an elevated .388 BABIP suggests regression to their otherwise successful splits. Harrison seems to be finding his groove with the Brewers after being traded twice as a once top-prospect. He's struck out 14 across his first 10.1 frames, averaging 35.0 FanDuel Points (FDP). That's raised his price, but if we get a third straight strong showing, that's still a 4x return.
Chris Bassitt, BAL vs. SF ($7,200): I'm expecting high roster percentages on Emmet Sheehan ($7,500) in this lower tier. If we say he's been less than average in his first two starts, we can follow by saying Bassitt has been downright awful. He brings a 14.21 ERA, 2.84 WHIP and paltry 4.3 K/9 ratio into Saturday. But for the low number, I'm willing to be different and fade Sheehan with this play. The Giants have been ice cold, sitting with a weak .268 wOBA and 70 wRC+ off righties. It would seem like it's now or never for the veteran; he either shows something or he's completely washed.
German Marquez, SD vs. COL ($7,000): This certainly is a slate where you can punt pitching given a lack of aces. Marquez has one solid start and one blowup to open the year, but should have a little extra juice facing his old Rockies teammates. Colorado hasn't been awful offensively but still come with a 25.3 percent K rate off righties. They've got a low 3.5 run expectancy, so if Marquez can work five relatively clean frames and get a punch-out per inning, there's a clear path to a 4x or better return while freeing up ample money for offense.
Top Targets
The Brewers will be the bane of my writing existence all season. They're a terrific team with no clear cut star offensively, making it incredibly difficult to target confidently on a daily basis. But they come with a 5.1 run expectancy Saturday, so ignoring isn't prudent either. William Contreras ($3,600) has a solid .410 wOBA and 161 wRC+ off lefties out of the gates.
Staying in Milwaukee, are James Wood ($3,500) and CJ Abrams ($4,100) too hot to fade, even in an LvL matchup? Wood had four hits last night, giving him 10 in his last four games. He's boasting a decent .354 wOBA, .263 ISO and 124 wRC+ off lefties, and would be my preference.
Bargain Bats
In yesterday's column, I noted Ronald Acuna ($3,100) was warming up, coming off two doubles. Well, he homered and singled in five at-bats last night, giving him three two-hit games in his last five. His price remains far too low thanks to an early-season slump.
If you're interested in fading Bassitt (and I wouldn't blame you), he's allowing a .566 wOBA and 1.396 OPS to lefties. Rafael Devers ($2,900) is ridiculously priced and is 10-for-20 off Bassitt with three homers.
Boston-St. Louis seems to have some sneaky game stack potential. Ranger Suarez has not been what the Red Sox thought they were getting, as he's allowed eight runs in his first 8.1 innings. The Cardinals lineup, particularly down the order, stinks, however. Give a look to Ramon Urias ($2,300) who is near minimally priced and has a plethora of position flexibility. We can come back around on the Boston side with cheap plays like Roman Anthony ($2,900) and Marcelo Mayer ($2,700). St. Louis starter Kyle Leahy is allowing a .481 wOBA and 1.095 OPS to lefties.
Stack to Consider
Rangers vs. Emmet Sheehan (Dodgers): Corey Seager ($3,700), Brandon Nimmo ($3,400), Evan Carter ($2,700)
One of the easiest strategies I see Saturday is to identify the chalky, lower-priced pitcher many will pick and subsequently target the offense he's facing. We've got a terrific setup here. Sheehan has faced 43 hitters this season, and 32 of them were left-handed, as teams are clearly loading up with opposite-handed bats against him. And he's allowing a .449 wOBA and 1.030 OPS to them, so why not keep rolling with it? I admittedly don't love Nimmo at this price given that he's a bit more of a floor play than a ceiling, but we'll force him in as a leadoff guy and the required lefty. Carter and Seager both homered last night, so we're either a day late, or one is about to go on a hot streak. Carter would gain more appeal if he can find a way into a higher lineup spot, but as currently expected, it's a 1-2-5 lineup stack, close enough to allow them all to correlated success.
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