This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The outdoor hard-court BNP Paribas Open from Indian Wells, California continues Thursday, as the men's first round gets underway, accompanied by a number of women's first-round matches. All of the seeded players get a first-round bye, so the selection of matches will be limited to clashes between unseeded opponents. Match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Betting the opening round at any tournament can be tricky, as you can never be sure about how players will adapt to the conditions and court speed at any particular tournament, but there are still some options that stand out, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Sebastian Baez (+135) vs. Nick Kyrgios
This will be a battle of effort and determination versus talent. Baez is Diego Schwartzman-lite — a 5-foot-7 Argentine who always gives 110 percent and isn't afraid to take control of rallies when given the opportunity. The 21-year-old Baez has just hit a career high ranking of 60 and seems poised to keep climbing, having already beaten Cristian Garin this year and battled Stefanos Tsitsipas hard in a 6-7 (1), 7-6 (5), 3-6, 4-6 loss at the Australian Open. Kyrgios undoubtedly has more natural talent, with a 6-foot-4 frame and one of the best serves on tour, but the enigmatic Aussie's singles ranking has dropped to 132. While Kyrgios has the much higher ceiling, there's a substantial chance that he'll just phone in part or all of this match, while Baez will force him to earn every point. Kyrgios hasn't played a singles match since the Australian Open, so he's unlikely to be in top form.
Borna Coric (+235) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
It's hard to predict what we'll see from Coric in his first tournament action since getting shoulder surgery last May, but it's also hard not to like him at these long odds. Prior to his injury issues, the 25-year-old Coric was a superior player to Davidovich Fokina, peaking at No. 12 in the world in 2018 and reaching the 2020 US Open quarterfinals. While Davidovich Fokina's a solid player, the 22-year-old Spaniard is just 3-6 thus far in 2022.
Honorable Mention:
Lorenzo Musetti (+140) vs. Marcos Giron
Lock It In
Soonwoo Kwon (-295) vs. Laslo Djere
Djere comes into this one on a five-match losing streak, while Kwon has been tough out lately. Of Kwon's last five losses, two came against Andrey Rublev — who might be playing the best tennis in the world this side of Rafael Nadal right now — and one against Stefanos Tsitsipas. The Tsitsipas match went five sets in Australia, and Kwon forced a deciding set in one of the defeats to Rublev as well. Kwon also beat Djere 6-0 in the third set in their lone career meeting last year, which came on an indoor hard court. There's a reason Kwon's a comfortable favorite despite being ranked 64th while Djere is the world No. 52.
Honorable Mention:
Kaja Juvan (-280) vs. Oceane Dodin
Value Bet
Marie Bouzkova (-110) vs. Qiang Wang
Bouzkova's a slight underdog in this one, even though there's a good argument to make that she should be favored. She's ranked 97th, which is seven spots ahead of Wang, and both players have gotten used to the conditions, having to win two qualifying matches apiece to get into the main draw. Bouzkova beat Wang 6-3, 6-3 less than two weeks ago in Guadalajara, and the 23-year-old generally has more upside than her 30-year-old opponent at this point.
Steve Johnson (-110) vs. Daniel Altmaier
Johnson's in a similar position to Bouzkova as a slight underdog capable of pulling out a win. The California native will feel right at home against the German Altmaier, who's just 2-7 in main draw matches this year. Johnson's not much better at 4-5 and has seen his ranking slip to 115 compared to Altmaier's 79, but Johnson knows how to feed off a supportive crowd — just ask all the players he beat during his 72-match win streak to close out his NCAA career at USC back in the day.
Honorable Mention:
Dominik Koepfer (-145) vs. Benoit Paire
