Quarterfinal play at Wimbledon continues Wednesday from the grass courts of the All England Club in London. Another upset could be brewing in a women's draw that has already seen plenty of big ones throughout this tournament, while recent head-to-head history may not be the most reliable indicator in a high-profile men's matchup.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as Wimbledon are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends an enticing option in a matchup considered closer to a toss-up.
Wimbledon Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Jasmine Paolini (+215) vs. Marta Kostyuk
Kostyuk has outplayed Paolini throughout 2026, but only four spots separate them in the rankings, and the 30-year-old Italian is the more accomplished grass-court player, having reached the Wimbledon final in 2024. This is Kostyuk's first quarterfinal at the All England Club and only her third career Grand Slam quarterfinal (1-1 record), though she just reached the French Open semifinals during what has been a torrid 20-1 stretch. All but four of those matches came on clay, and the 24-year-old Ukrainian has been pushed to three sets twice in her four matches at Wimbledon despite facing only one top-100 opponent in No. 23 seed Emma Navarro. Paolini has the edge in both experience and accolades on grass, plus she has beaten Kostyuk in two of three previous meetings, though they haven't faced off since 2023. This is only the third major quarterfinal for Paolini herself, but she reached the final both previous times that she got at least this far.
Wimbledon Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Linda Noskova (-160) vs. Elise Mertens
Noskova has gone 9-1 this grass-court season, with wins over Jessica Pegula, Sorana Cirstea and Madison Keys. The big-hitting Czech has consistently overpowered opponents on this fast surface and is well positioned to do so again here, as Mertens can't match the 12th-ranked Noskova's pace off the ground and typically falls short against high-level competition. Mertens bucked that trend with a straight-set third-round win over No. 2 seed Elena Rybakina here, though Rybakina largely beat herself with 31 unforced errors in 20 games. Prior to that win, the 27th-ranked Mertens was 1-9 in her previous 10 matchups against top-15 competition.
Honorable Mention
Flavio Cobolli (-286) vs. Arthur Fery
Wimbledon Tennis Predictions: Value Bet
Alexander Zverev (-109) vs. Taylor Fritz
Fritz has a freshness advantage in both the micro and macro senses, as he had a recovery day Tuesday while Zverev had to come back out and finish out his four-set fourth-round win over Jiri Lehecka, which was suspended at 3-3 in the third set the previous day. The sixth-seeded American also avoided the wear and tear of the clay-court season, which he missed almost entirely while recovering from knee tendinitis. Zverev won't mind all the effort he put in on the dirt considering it culminated in his first Grand Slam title at the French Open, and the second-seeded German has a stellar 16-1 record in Grand Slam matches this year, with the lone defeat coming in a five-set nail-biter against eventual Australian Open champion Carlos Alcaraz (wrist) down under. Fritz has been locked in this tournament, dropping just one set, and he actually has a seven-match winning streak going against Zverev, with three of those wins coming on grass. A lot of signs are pointing in Fritz's favor here, and yet it's hard to argue against the value of taking Zverev at even money given just how much more proven Zverev is on the biggest stages. While Zverev had a well-known reputation for coming up just short in Grand Slams prior to finally getting over the hump at Roland Garros, he has consistently put himself in position to contend for major titles, with an 11-6 career record in Grand Slam quarterfinals. Fritz is just 2-5 at the same stage in his career.
