The fourth round of Wimbledon continues Monday from the grass courts of the All England Club in London. An American favorite will have to tread carefully to avoid being sent home by a fellow big server, while a former finalist here tries to recapture that form against a far less experienced opponent.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as Wimbledon are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Wimbledon Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Alexander Bublik (+178) vs. Taylor Fritz
This match between two of the best servers on the ATP Tour will likely come down to a few key points. Bublik could have the advantage in those key moments as the more battle-tested of the two competitors. The No. 10 seed has already battled through two five-setters in this tournament, including a five-set third-round win over 17th-seeded Frances Tiafoe during which Bublik served a whopping 48 aces and fought off nine set points in the third set. Fritz has benefited from an easy draw, as 69th-ranked Lorenzo Sonego is the only top-100 opponent that the sixth-seeded American has faced through three rounds, so Bublik presents a big step up in level of competition. Both of these players arguably play their best tennis on grass, so it's encouraging for Fritz that he has won both of their previous encounters on this surface, though their overall head-to-head is tied 4-4.
Honorable Mention
Flavio Cobolli (+282) vs. Alex de Minaur
Wimbledon Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Grigor Dimitrov (-234) vs. Arthur Fery
Dimitrov is 12-3 in his last 15 matches at Wimbledon, with all three losses coming against opponents ranked in the top six, and two of those defeats being in matches that the Bulgarian was unable to finish due to injuries. There is some concern about how his 35-year-old body will hold up coming off a five-set third-round win over Matteo Berrettini, though that match didn't feature many extended rallies. Assuming Dimitrov's anywhere near full fitness, it's hard to see him having much trouble against the 114th-ranked Fery, who didn't face a seeded opponent en route to the fourth round of what has already been by far the best tournament of the 23-year-old Brit's otherwise unremarkable career.
Alexander Zverev (-303) vs. Jiri Lehecka
Zverev is playing with newfound confidence after notching his first Grand Slam title at the French Open, and the No. 2 seed looks ready to outperform his previous best result at Wimbledon, having lost his previous three Round of 16 matches at the All England Club. Lehecka is a solid all-around player, but the No. 13 seed has come up well short against the highest level of competition on the biggest stages. He defeated Felix Auger-Aliassime in his first Grand Slam matchup against a top-10 player back at the 2023 Australian Open, but Lehecka hasn't won a single set in six subsequent matches against top-10 competition at majors. He also failed to win a Grand Slam match this year prior to Wimbledon, where Lehecka has lucked out in facing three unseeded opponents prior to this steep increase in difficulty against the surging Zverev.
Honorable Mention
Marta Kostyuk (-225) vs. Ashlyn Krueger
Wimbledon Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Madison Keys (-142) vs. Linda Noskova
Keys can beat anybody when she's locked in, and the big-hitting American is on a heater reminiscent of the one that culminated in her only Grand Slam title to date at the 2025 Australian Open. She won a tune-up event in Adelaide that year, entering the Australian Open on a five-match winning streak that Keys subsequently extended to 12. Keys also entered this tournament on a five-match winning streak after winning Eastbourne in the lead-up to Wimbledon, and she has only built momentum since then, having defeated No. 6 seed and 2025 runner-up Amanda Anisimova in her previous match. Like Anisimova, Noskova's a power player who will try to beat Keys at her own game, which is extremely difficult to do when Keys is in top form. Noskova also has a grass-court title this year and is ranked 10 spots above Keys at No. 12, but the 21-year-old Czech has reached only one Grand Slam quarterfinal so far at the 2024 Australian Open, while Keys has been at least that far in a major on 12 previous occasions, including twice at Wimbledon.
Jasmine Paolini (+141) vs. Alexandra Eala
Eala's riding high coming off an emotional win over defending champion Iga Swiatek, but Paolini's a nice value here as the underdog against the 21-year-old Filipina despite the Italian holding a 15-spot edge in the rankings. These two players find success on grass in different ways, and while Eala has excelled at using her opponents' power against them in these quick court conditions, Paolini can retrieve the ball well and force Eala to generate more of her own pace in this matchup. It has been a down year for Paolini, who began the year comfortably within the top 10, but the 2024 Wimbledon finalist has found some of her best form again at the All England Club this year, reeling off six consecutive sets since dropping the first set of her first-round match 6-0 to Robin Montgomery. Eala defeated Paolini on hard court earlier this year in their first career meeting, but this is a far bigger stage and it remains to be seen if Eala steps up to the pressure in her first Grand Slam Round of 16 match or has a letdown after the high of taking out Swiatek.
Honorable Mention
Elise Mertens (-129) vs. Marie Bouzkova
