The third round of Wimbledon begins Friday on the grass courts of the All England Club in London. One of the top title favorites is on upset alert against a dangerous opponent, while a pair of surging teenagers look to keep riding their recent momentum and establish themselves as second-week contenders.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as Wimbledon are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous grass court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Wimbledon Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Marton Fucsovics (+249) vs. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Fucsovics benefited from Learner Tien being at less than 100 percent physically in the fourth set of the Hungarian's second-round win, but Fucsovics put himself in position to win the match prior to that point by outplaying the 16th-seeded American. This is the fourth time in his last six trips to the All England Club that Fucsovics has reached the third round, and he has been as far as the quarterfinals, while Davidovich Fokina is just 7-4 in his career at Wimbledon, with this third-round appearance equaling the No. 22 seed's best previous result here. Davidovich Fokina just got the monkey off his back by capturing his first ATP Tour title on the grass courts of Mallorca on home soil, but the enigmatic Spaniard isn't known for his tournament-to-tournament consistency. These two have split two previous meetings, as Fucsovics won handily on indoor hard court in 2021 before Davidovich Fokina needed a fifth-set tiebreak to get revenge at the 2022 US Open.
Jelena Ostapenko (+305) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Ostapenko is an opponent that no top player wants to see in their section of the draw because she can take the racquet out of your hands with her aggressive court positioning and power. The talented Latvian defeated Sabalenka the last time these two tangled in 2025, though Sabalenka won their previous three encounters. Ostapenko has reached at least the quarterfinals at Wimbledon three times in her career, last doing so in 2024. Sabalenka's not quite as dominant on grass compared to hard courts, as Wimbledon is the only Grand Slam at which she has yet to reach the final. If errors creep into Sabalenka's game like they did in the second set of her 6-1, 7-6 (9) second-round win over McCartney Kessler, the world No. 1 could find herself in trouble in this battle of big hitters.
Honorable Mention
Jessica Bouzas Maneiro (+534) vs. Jessica Pegula
Wimbledon Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Rafael Jodar (-317) vs. Shintaro Mochizuki
Jodar has a 25-5 record dating back to the Miami Open, as the 19-year-old Spaniard has climbed into the top 30 and is showing no signs of slowing down. He didn't have a grass-court match on his ATP Tour ledger prior to this tournament, but Jodar won a prestigious under-18 grass-court tournament in Roehampton, England in 2024 prior to reaching the quarterfinals of junior Wimbledon that same year, so he has demonstrated some grass-court aptitude. Jodar's coming off a five-set win over veteran compatriot Pablo Carreno Busta, whom Jodar also defeated in five sets in the Round of 16 at the French Open. He's likely to meet less resistance against the 151st-ranked Mochizuki, who was 0-6 in ATP Tour-level matches prior to this tournament
Iva Jovic (-219) vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova
The 18-year-old Jovic has rocketed up the rankings, rising up to 16th while posting a 28-13 record in 2026. The American teenager has been locked in to begin this tournament, dropping just nine games through two rounds against a pair of potentially tricky opponents in Jaqueline Cristian and Tatjana Maria. Jovic is ranked only three spots above Alexandrova, but the 31-year-old Russian has been in far inferior form this year, with an ugly 11-16 record. Alexandrova has also been a perennial Grand Slam underperformer, as she has never exceeded the Round of 16 at a major and has a pedestrian 11-7 career record at Wimbledon.
Honorable Mention
Barbora Krejcikova (-225) vs. Nikola Bartunkova
Wimbledon Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Hubert Hurkacz (+161) vs. Tommy Paul
Friday's action consists almost exclusively of matches featuring clear favorites, but Hurkacz-Paul figures to be one of the most competitive battles of the day. It's surprising that Hurkacz is viewed as the clear underdog considering the big-serving Pole has a pair of top-15 wins this grass-court season over Andrey Rublev and Casper Ruud, and Hurkacz has been as far as the semifinals at Wimbledon. The former world No. 6 has dropped 90 spots in the rankings since then, but he's starting to find his game on his best surface. Paul's an excellent grass-court player, with a 31-15 career record on the surface, but he doesn't get nearly as many free points on serve as Hurkacz. The 25th-ranked American leads their head-to-head 3-1, but two of Paul's three wins were decided by one-break margins in the final set, and these two have never faced off on grass before.
