This article is part of our Yahoo DFS Soccer series.
Sunday's single-game Yahoo slate features a marquee matchup between two countries with plenty of World Cup pedigree: Spain and Germany. Spain won their first group matchup comfortably against Costa Rica and enter this one as a narrow favorite, whereas Germany will be looking to rebound from a stunning opening-round defeat against a motivated Japan squad.
For detailed stats and odds, check out the
Cash Game Strategy
This match will showcase two of the best midfielders in the world and prices in this contest kindly allow for quite a bit of exposure to some of the elite talent on display Sunday. It's not terribly often that one can roster three Golden Boy finalists (two winners, thus far) in a DFS contest concurrently, but this weekend's optimal lineup may well include Gavi ($26), Pedri ($16) and Jamal Musiala ($22). Gavi has experienced a rich run of recent form - scoring in his last two international matches - and he's a strong candidate to tally a third during a game projected to yield over three goals. Pedri hasn't been as impressive from a fantasy perspective, but he's been increasingly involved on set pieces and could provide outsized creativity and value for his price.
With respect to the always-important Superstar (1.6x points) role, I recommend paying the premium for Serge Gnabry for a couple of different reasons. First, he's taken exactly six shots (three on target) in each of his last three competitive matches. I expect that sort of aggression to continue in an important spot Sunday and this clash is effectively a must-win for Germany. Moreover, Gnabry is +250 to score, which represents the best scoring odds of any expected starting forward in Die Mannschaft. Fellow winger Musiala isn't terribly far behind at +300 to score and it's conceivable that both German attackers could find the score-sheet in a high-octane affair.
Given that the key to this match could easily be clinical midfield play, let's fill in the first gap of this lineup with a no-brainer value play Ilkay Gundogan ($24). Gundogan will likely find his way into most lineups, regardless of format, as a cheap opportunity to obtain German penalties and set pieces without paying all the way up for Joshua Kimmich ($28). Speaking of value plays, Jordi Alba ($17) appears underpriced considering his crucial role sending in crosses from the flank (not to mention the fact he logged an assist against Costa Rica). I prefer Gundogan and Alba - provided each starts - over generalists Thomas Muller ($20) and Leon Goretzka ($17), who split 90 minutes between the two of them during the the Japan tilt.
Tournament Strategy
Based on the way prices shake out in this particular contest, a heavy Germany stack provides perhaps the best value of any strategy and should profit nicely if they bounce back against the Spaniards. Following their first-round flop against Japan, it's difficult to envision such a storied, experienced squad playing poorly in two-consecutive matches. On the flip side of things, Spain sit at the top of the group and could suffer a letdown of sorts on the heels of a wide victory (7-0) over inferior competition. Accordingly, one could do far worse than loading up on the likes of Niclas Fullkrug, Musiala, Muller, Gundogan and even Kimmich in hopes that they each post attractive stat lines and connect the dots for a strong tournament result.
If you're looking to get even more picky with your strategy and believe Spain find the back of the net at least once in a game that Germany still capture, fade both keepers (Manuel Neuer, $17; Unai Simon, $19) and double-down on one of La Roja's primary goalscorers like Ferran Torres or Marco Asensio ($24). In any event, this will be one of the most entertaining matchups of the group stage and could easily see multiple goals on each side.
