Ryan Mountcastle

Mountcastle was batting .227/.264/.431 when he was put on the IL in early June with vertigo. He had been in a bad slump in the weeks leading up to illness but it's unclear if they were related. After returning a month later, Mountcastle went on a roll, posting a .326/.407/.492 line the rest of the way. He missed some time in September with a shoulder injury but was able to return for the playoffs. Taken as a whole, it appears Mountcastle improved across the board compared to the previous season, but his batted ball metrics, and expected average and slug were nearly identical both seasons. To his credit, Mountcastle fanned at the lowest rate since his rookie year, which was the pandemic season. Mountcastle undershot his expected homers for the second straight season, which could be due to the renovations in Camden Yards, or a hint there is latent pop. Mountcastle's cost of acquisition should be reasonable, though there are durability concerns since he's never played more than 145 games. Even so, there is a draftable floor, with a chance 2021 is not Mountcastle's apex season.

Mountcastle's numbers don't express it, but he sported better skills than the previous season, but was shortchanged between six and nine homers, depending on which xHR mark is trusted. Looking at his spray chart, the discrepancy is more than the new Camden Yards dimensions. Mountcastle increased his fly ball exit velocity 1-mph, adding around four feet to his average fly ball distance. Yet, his HR/FB slipped from 20.4% to a snake bit 13.3%. Mountcastle chased less while being more aggressive in the zone, resulting in shaving a couple of points of his strikeout rate. The narrative will be moving the left field fences back in Camden Yards cost him power, but he was also unlucky in the home run department. This presents a buying opportunity as many will over adjust Mountcastle's new power baseline. He's still in the upswing of his career, hitting in the meat of an improving lineup.

After a surprise debut year in 2020 when he hit for a .333 average, the batting average stepped back some for Mountcastle in 2021, but fortunately, that was not the case with his power. After a slow start (.628 OPS on June 1), he heated up over the last four months (.878 OPS with 28 of his 33 homers). He gave up some contact for more power (.159 to .232 ISO, 87 to 89 mph avgEV). It's tough to gauge his talent going forward since his limited production keeps bouncing around (e.g. 1.183 OPS in Aug. with a .710 OPS in Sept.). He should not be a drag in batting average and provide 30 or so home runs with a half dozen steals. It's not game-changing talent, but Mountcastle should be considered a nice roster fill-in especially since he's qualified at first base and outfield.

Mountcastle is not the answer for the Orioles, but he is pretty clearly one of the best players on the current roster. Among Baltimore position players in 2020, Mountcastle finished third in fWAR behind Jose Iglesias (who's no longer with the team) and Anthony Santander. He achieved that finish despite not debuting until Aug. 21. His success over 35 games was fueled by a .398 BABIP, a number not supported in any way by his batted-ball metrics. In fact, Mountcastle's xBA was nearly 70 points below his actual BA, the third-greatest differential between expected and actual average. It's encouraging that he crushed same-handed pitching; hopefully the landing will be fine with some gains against lefties. Mountcastle will have dual eligibility in many leagues as he made 10 appearances at first base in addition to 25 in the outfield. The fact he plays at Camden Yards helps the appeal of his compiler profile.

Mountcastle is a prime example of why team context matters when valuing prospects for dynasty leagues. On any contending team or National League team with solid depth, he wouldn't be assured an audition as a regular. However, Baltimore gave Dwight Smith (-0.8 fWAR) almost 400 plate appearances last year, so Mountcastle should be given regular playing time for several years despite his obvious deficiencies. He is a below-average defender in left field, but that won't stop the O's from giving him time there while also giving him starts as the designated hitter. With a potentially plus hit tool and 4.3 BB% at Triple-A, Mountcastle is much more valuable in AVG leagues than OBP leagues. He could be a 25-homer threat, thanks in part to his home park, but won't be a threat on the bases. It's not an exciting fantasy profile, but he could spend most of 2020 hitting in the top half of the big-league lineup.

Mountcastle flopped in a 39-game run at Double-A to close 2017, but mastered the level in a return trip. Among qualified Eastern League hitters under 22, only Ke'Bryan Hayes and Brendan Rodgers topped Mountcastle's 121 wRC+. If he were a quality defensive third baseman, the profile would be straightforward, as he should hit enough to profile at the hot corner. Unfortunately, he will likely have to move to left field or DH, which means his bat (potentially plus hit tool with above-average power) needs to max out. Mountcastle's 6.1 BB% was the eighth-worst mark in the Eastern League, but he makes contact at a high clip (18.5 K%) and uses the whole field. A reasonable outcome would be a .280 hitter who hits 20-25 home runs. Fantasy managers would take that production, but if it comes with a low walk rate and below-average defense, most big-league teams would be unsatisfied. Fortunately, the Orioles are not most big-league teams.

Mountcastle had more home runs (18) than walks (17) in 2017, but was still able to break out as a legitimate fantasy prospect thanks to his innate bat-to-ball ability. He led the Carolina League with a .314 average while ranking fifth in home runs (15) and eighth in strikeout rate (16.1 percent), all while being one of the 10 youngest hitters in the league and playing just 88 games prior to a promotion to Double-A. The breakout party came to a screeching halt in the Eastern League, as his walk rate dropped to 1.9 percent, he became much more pull happy (54.8 percent), and simply put too many pitcher's pitches in play. He will head back to Double-A for his age-21 season, with plenty of time to make adjustments at the plate. Evaluators still see a hitter with the potential to flirt with .300 and provide 20-plus homer pop. Unfortunately, he is a below-average runner and doesn't have the arm for shortstop or third base, so left field makes the most sense long term.

Mountcastle was viewed by many as a reach at No. 36 overall in the 2015 first-year player draft, but if he puts it all together, he could be a major league regular at shortstop in three or four years. Standing 6-foot-3, 195 pounds, Mountcastle was touted for his raw power coming out of high school, but that raw power did not translate during his first calendar year in professional ball. He slugged just .393 between rookie ball and Low-A Aberdeen in 2015 and managed one home run over the first two months of 2016. Finally, Mountcastle began to put the ball over the fence in June and went on to hit nine homers over the final three months of his age-19 season. He'll need to develop a keener eye and make more consistent contact to have success at the upper levels, and speed is not a part of the package. Still, Mountcastle deserves to be monitored by those in long-term keeper leagues.

The Orioles used a 2015 compensatory pick on Mountcastle. They may have reached a bit in order to sign him under slot, though Mountcastle was a late blooming prospect whose reputation grew only over the year before he was drafted. Mountcastle is widely regarded to possess superior bat speed and profiles with above-average power. As with most players out of high school, Mountcastle's power may not be present, but he is expected to add more muscle over the next few seasons. It will not be surprising to see him retain a higher than average BABIP the way the ball jumps off his bat. Mountcastle started his professional career as a shortstop, but his defense probably will not be enough to stay put and he could move to third base or a corner outfield spot. He posted respectable numbers in Rookie League, earning a 10-game cameo in short-season ball. The Orioles are high on Mountcastle and he is advanced enough to be able to begin the 2016 season at Low-A.