This article is part of our FanDuel Fantasy Soccer series.
MATCHES (EDT)
- 10:00 am: AFC Bournemouth vs. Norwich City
- 10:00 am: Aston Villa vs. Brighton & Hove Albion
- 10:00 am: Chelsea vs. Newcastle United
- 10:00 am: Leicester City vs. Burnley
- 10:00 am: Tottenham Hotspur vs. Watford
- 10:00 am: Wolverhampton vs. Southampton
- 12:30 pm: Crystal Palace vs. Manchester City
For additional stats and odds, check out the FanDuel Fantasy Soccer: Saturday EPL Cheat Sheet.
FORWARDS/MIDFIELDERS
Four of the five most-expensive players are from Manchester City but I'm not sure they're worth it. Sergio Aguero ($23) and Kevin De Bruyne ($20) are banged up and probably won't make the full 90, while Raheem Sterling ($23) has had some issues with form, making the scoresheet in one of his last five starts. I also think Crystal Palace's home splits have to be taken into account, allowing one goal in four matches. Sure, the schedule hasn't been difficult, but they already won 2-1 at Manchester United. I'd rather spend on favorites at home like Tottenham and Chelsea, who are in equally favorable situations, as Watford have a minus-11 goal differential and Newcastle are at minus-8, both away from home. That's why Harry Kane ($23) has the best odds to score on the slate with Tammy Abraham ($19) close behind. Prior to the dud at Brighton, Kane had gotten on the scoresheet in six straight starts in all competitions. While he doesn't have much of a floor, the likelihood that he scores is hard to pass up. If you don't want to worry about needing a goal, Son Heung-Min ($19) is cheaper and has a better floor, averaging 1.48 shots on goal and 2.04 chances created per 90 minutes. Abraham is a good pivot from Kane since he has similar odds to score in addition to being more consistent, with at least three shots on goal in four of his last five starts.
Riyad Mahrez ($18) and Bernardo Silva ($18) are the same price, but I'd rather go with Callum Wilson ($18). Of course, since Man City are the biggest favorite, those guys will be more popular in cash games, so if you want to ride Wilson in tournaments, that's a fine strategy. He's hit double digits in his last seven starts and has five goals in his last five. Norwich City gave up five goals to Aston Villa a couple weeks ago, and it'd be disappointing if Bournemouth didn't hit the back of the net a couple times.
Unfortunately, there are more places to look because of the number of home favorites. Wesley Moraes ($18) is a bit overpriced against a defensive Brighton side, but Jamie Vardy ($17), Mason Mount ($17) and Raul Jimenez ($16) are all reasonable plays if you want to stack mid-range forwards. It makes a little more sense to go all in for GPPs, which means putting together Wilson and Joshua King ($15), Vardy and James Maddison ($15), as well as Abraham with Mount and Willian ($15). Christian Eriksen ($15) is also sitting there if he finds his way into the starting XI.
The problem if you stack the wrong team is that you'll likely be dead in the water because you know two or three of these squads could grab at least three goals. For cash games, it makes sense to have a piece of each of these sides with a focus on the players with the highest floors. That means Abraham, Son, Wilson or even John McGinn ($16), who has at least 9.5 fantasy points in every match.
As for the value plays, Anwar El Ghazi ($13) will get attention with five shots on goal and eight chances created in his four starts. Not many in this range have that kind of production outside of David Silva ($14). Callum Hudson-Odoi ($12) is another option in the Chelsea stack after hitting 23.6 fantasy points with an assist in his first start. Marvelous Nakamba ($11) remains on my list with a floor of 16 points in the last three matches, mostly from defensive stats. Adama Traore ($11) will probably be over-used, but there isn't a valid reason not to add him after scoring a brace against Man City. Conor Hourihane ($9) is quietly sitting in the basement despite taking eight corners in the last two matches for Aston Villa. If you're paying up at other spots, he makes a lot of sense for cheap.
DEFENDERS
You can reasonably put together a cheaper lineup of forwards and midfielders, so it's not crazy to pay up for Willy Boly ($16). His defensive numbers have been second to none with at least 24 fantasy points in four of his last five starts. Otherwise, I can't support spending on anyone else in this range. Instead, I'll go to the bottom of the list where most people turn no matter the type of game.
DeAndre Yedlin ($9) and Ciaran Clark ($8) may be the best choices if Newcastle repeat their starting XI from the Man United win. Chelsea have forced the third-most blocks, fourth-most interceptions and fifth-most clearances this season, and 10 points should be in play for everyone on Newcastle, with Jetro Willems ($12) and Jamaal Lascelles ($11) next in price. Man City don't force as much defensive action, but Gary Cahill ($11) and Martin Kelly ($9) have been fairly consistent with their production.
Watford defenders haven't been consistent, but Daryl Janmaat ($10), Jose Holebas ($10) and Craig Cathcart ($9) are in the money range. Plus, Tottenham have forced the second-most clearances and Cathcart had seven against Sheffield United last match. If you want a little more safety, Christian Kabasele ($12) returned to the XI last match and did his thing with 28 fantasy points. Burnley's Ben Mee ($12) and Matthew Lowton ($12) are also in a good spot and usually don't disappoint. If you want a tad more upside, full-backs Matt Targett ($12) and Serge Aurier stand out, though Ben Chilwell ($11) could be just as useful.
GOALKEEPER
Given all of the home favorites, you'll either have to spend more on a goalkeeper or cross your fingers and hope your underdog hits. I usually try and play things safe because 17 points (clean sheet and win) can go a long way, though I can't say that works more than 50 percent of the time. According to the odds, Mathew Ryan ($9) is in the best position as the lowest underdog on the slate, and he made 15 saves in the last three matches. It's the same case for Tim Krul ($9) or Michael McGovern ($9) because no matter who has been in net for Norwich, they've made a ton of saves. Kasper Schmeichel ($11) has the third-best odds for a clean sheet, yet Burnley have scored in all four of their away matches. That pick could turn sour, but the same goes for everyone else. Kepa Arrizabalaga ($13) has one clean sheet this season and Paulo Gazzaniga ($14) isn't in a much better situation given that Spurs gave up three goals to Brighton last match. My other pick would be Rui Patricio ($13) as it seems the Wolverhampton back line has returned to last year's levels with back-to-back clean sheets (three straight in all competitions) and Watford have eight goals from 34 shots on goal.
