2024 MLS Season Preview: Part IV

2024 MLS Season Preview: Part IV

This article is part of our MLS Preview series.

Welcome to Part IV of my MLS season preview series. We embark on a journey through the Western Conference that takes us through the heart of Texas, which includes Austin FC, FC Dallas and the Houston Dynamo.

Part I

Part II

Part III
Part IV
Part V
Part VI

Austin FC

  • 12th in the West - 39 Points
  • Missed the Playoffs

Manager

  • Josh Wolff (2021-present)

Additions

Departures

Designated Players

Young Player to Watch

Owen, 19, is the son of the manager Josh. Naturally, he's going to get a decent amount of playing time as long as his dad is the coach. On the midfield depth chart, he's behind both Alexander Ring and Daniel Pereira, but Wolff's versatility saw him make appearances at left-back and in a winger role last season. All nepotism aside, Wolff is a good, young prospect who represented the United States at the U20 World Cup and I expect him to continue to develop under the tutelage of the veteran Ring.

Under the Radar Breakout

Kolmanic started the first seven MLS matches last season before tearing his ACL in training. This forced Jon Gallagher to play on the left side with Nick Lima taking over at right-back. Lima has been traded away and Kolmanic is back on the pitch, starting his first friendly against Chicago on Feb. 7. This could be a bounce-back year for Kolmanic, who turns 24 next month. Austin signed left-back Guilherme Biro from Mirassol in the offseason, but I see him more as a depth signing.

Top Newcomer

In a signing out of nowhere, Rubio joined Austin as a free agent after an injury-ridden final season in Colorado. Injuries have been the story with Rubio, but when he is healthy he can play at a close to elite level in MLS. If you look back at his 2022 season with Colorado, Rubio scored 16 goals and added six assists in 30 appearances. If Austin get a healthy Rubio, the sky is the limit for the Rubio/Sebastian Driussi connection.

Position Battle to Watch

All things considered, Stuver had a solid 2023 in net leading the league with 130 saves. In a surprise move, Austin picked up Cleveland on a free-agent deal from Seattle. Cleveland reportedly left Seattle to battle for a starting job, which makes this move a head-scratcher (especially when the team has up-and-coming talent Damian Las on the roster, as well). This is Stuver's job to lose in my opinion and I would be shocked if he wasn't the opening-day starter.

Outlook

  • Austin largely overachieved in their first season in MLS in 2022. Last season, they came back to earth in a season that is to be forgotten. Coach Josh Wolff kept his job and Austin used the first selection in the MLS Re-Entry Draft to select Jader Obrian from rival FC Dallas. The Rubio signing gives them a scoring option when healthy, as the only striker on the roster was Gyasi Zardes before his arrival. Injuries are going to define the season for Austin FC. If Driussi and company can stay healthy, this is a playoff-capable team. If there are injuries, it's tough to see them making the playoffs.
  • Ceiling: Conference Semifinals
  • Floor: Miss the Playoffs

Colorado Rapids

  • 14th in the West - 27 Points
  • Missed the Playoffs

Manager

  • Chris Armas (New)

Armas returns to MLS after being an assistant in England since 2021 (Manchester United and Leeds United). Previously, he spent three seasons as the manager of the New York Red Bulls (46.48% win rate) and one rough season in charge at Toronto FC where he only won two matches in his 15-game tenure. Colorado have a completely revamped squad from last season and it will be interesting to see how Armas does at the helm.

Additions

Departures

Designated Players

Under the Radar Breakout

Bombito featured for Canada in the CONCACAF Gold Cup last season and was more prevalent in the Rapids side down the stretch. In the offseason, Colorado parted ways with Danny Wilson which opens the door for a new starter. Lalas Abubakar is the other option for the other center-back next to Andreas Maxso. Abubakar had links to the Turkish league and Bombito has started three out of four preseason games. Bombito took a big step last season and I expect him to improve on his 748 minutes with the Rapids this season.

Young Player to Watch

Yapi, 19, made eight starts and 12 appearances off the bench for Colorado last season, though the production wasn't there as he only had one assist. His ability translated with the MLS Next Pro club Rapids II, where he had four goals and two assists across nine appearances. Yapi was also a member of the United States U20 team at the U20 World Cup in Argentina. Starting striker Rafael Navarro is a designated player they signed last summer for $5 million, so Yapi is behind him on the depth chart. The upside is there for the young forward and he's one to keep an eye on as the season progresses, as he's an injury away from getting back into the starting lineup.

Top Newcomer

Colorado made a lot of great moves this offseason, but acquiring Mihailovic from AZ Alkmaar has to be the top move. Mihailovic struggled after joining AZ only having four goal involvements in 36 appearances in two seasons. He's an MLS veteran playing for the Chicago Fire (2017-2020) and CF Montreal (2021-2022). If you look at his stats before he left for AZ, in 33 appearances for CF Montreal, he had 12 goals and seven assists. The previous year in 35 appearances he tallied six goals and 21 assists. The potential production is there and I fully expect him to have a big season.

Position Battle to Watch

  • The Midfield

Colorado deployed a 4-2-3-1 last season and it will be interesting to see if new coach Chris Armas continues to use the formation. The nailed-on starters for me are Connor Ronan (RCM), Omir Fernandez (RM) and Djordje Mihailovic (CAM or LM). This leaves two open spots for two different scenarios. If Mihailovic plays CAM, it will be Calvin Harris and Kevin Cabral in the mix to start. If Mihailovic plays LM, it could mean Cole Bassett starts at CAM. Bassett has some versatility, as he can slide into the vacant LCM position, as well. The other candidate for LCM is newly acquired Lamine Diack. I prefer Mihailovic on the left, Bassett as the CAM, Fernandez on the right, and Dack and Ronan as the central/defensive midfielders.

Outlook

  • What a difference a year makes. Colorado could have five new starters this season and have a completely revamped team. As bad as the team was last season, they start 2024 with a ton of optimism. As good as Colorado usually is at home, they were only 3-8-6 at Dick's Sporting Goods Park last season. With the highest elevation in the entire MLS at 5,200 feet above sea level, they could get back to their old ways of being one of the toughest places in the league to pick up points. Several players are coming back to MLS to jump-start their careers again like Zack Steffen (Manchester City), Sam Vines (Royal Antwerp), and Mihailovic (AZ). The ability for this team to gel and avoid a slow start will be the biggest question for me. The upside is there and they are a wild card in the West.
  • Ceiling: Western Conference Semifinals
  • Floor: Miss the Playoffs

FC Dallas

  • 7th in the West - 46 Points
  • Lost to Seattle in the First Round

Manager

  • Nico Estevez (2022-present)

Additions

Departures

Designated Players

Young Player to Watch

Kamungo had a meteoric rise last season to be an important player for FC Dallas, a year after he had a breakout season with Dallas' MLS Next Pro side, North Texas SC, where he scored 16 goals and added five assists in 25 appearances. Last season, he got his chance for FC Dallas and didn't disappoint. The 22-year-old made 12 starts from 24 total appearances, while contributing eight goals and five assists. The highlight of his season were performances at the Leagues Cup where in four matches he had five goal contributions. This Dallas attack is scary good and Kamungo is one of the unsung talents in the group.

Under the Radar Breakout

Sealy broke into the first team last season making two starts and 11 appearances off the bench. The previous two seasons he spent on loan with Jong PSV (PSV Eindhoven's reserve team). Sealy is another FC Dallas academy graduate with a lot of upside. He's still only 20 years old and has represented the United States at the U16, U17 and U20 levels. Alan Velasco is still recovering from his torn ACL and MCL he suffered in late October and while the starter should be Paul Arriola, there's a clear path to playing time for Sealy. He's more polished at the moment than newcomer Enes Sali, who is turning 18 at the end of February. All signs point to Sealy carving out a bigger role this season.

Top Newcomer

Dallas splashed the cash and acquired Musa from Benfica this offseason. The signing for the 25-year-old Croatian is a club-record fee of $9.7 million that could rise to $13 million based on incentives and add-ons. Musa is going to be an imposing figure in MLS standing 6-foot-3 (1.90m). The biggest benefactor of the Musa signing is Jesus Ferreira in my opinion. Ferreira can now slide into a No. 10 role or a shadow-striker type of position that you see Hany Mukhtar play in Nashville. Ferreira will have more freedom and won't get the sole focus of backlines. On set pieces, I fully expect to see several Ferreira to Musa connections throughout the season.

Position Battle to Watch

  • Central Midfield

Asier Illarramendi should lock down the No. 6 role, but he's turning 34 next month and is in the last year of his contract with FC Dallas. Liam Fraser could get some starts for Illarramendi with rotation and Dallas have also played them together a few times including once in the preseason. The No. 8 role will be between Paxton Pomykal and Sebastian Lletget, who both got playing time at the position last year. Pomykal can also play CAM if Dallas want to go with a two-striker look with Musa and Ferreira. Lletget can also play on the right wing if needed and is under contract through 2026. I expect a decent amount of rotation in the midfield amongst the four guys in this column.

Outlook

  • I really like the makeup of this FC Dallas team. The addition of Musa is huge for an MLS side that needed a target man to open up Ferreira. The injury to Velasco hurts, but if his rehab continues to go well, he could return at the end of the season for a playoff run. The backline is what will decide how far they go. 

    At center-back, Nkosi Tafari and Sebastien Ibeagha are the starting pair, but there isn't a lot of depth behind them (and I'm not sold on Ibeagha). Omar Gonzalez is serviceable but is 35 and past his prime. Amet Korca could see some extended time, as well, as Dallas rotated a three-man group last season with Jose Antonio Martinez. The full-backs are in the same boat, as on the left side Marco Farfan was losing the job at the end of the season to Sam Junqua. On the right side, Geovane Jesus tore his ACL in September, so it will be Ema Twumasi taking over the position. The upside is there, but the depth of the backline is a clear concern.

  • Ceiling: MLS Cup Winner
  • Floor: First Round Exit

Houston Dynamo

  • 4th in the West - 51 Points
  • Lost to LAFC in the Western Conference final

Manager

  • Ben Olsen (2022-present)

Additions

Departures

Designated Players

Young Player to Watch & Under the Radar Breakout

Nelson Quinones was my first choice, but he went down with a nasty-looking injury on international duty with the Columbia U23 team. He tore ligaments in his knee and is out seven-to-eight months. When healthy, Quinones is my young player to watch as he had a huge role on the left wing last season, starting 30 matches and playing 2,480 minutes across all first-team competitions.

That leaves 22-year-old Aliyu to fit the mold for both columns. Aliyu joined Houston last offseason from Lokomotiva Zagreb for around $2.1 million. He started 20 matches, scoring six goals and tallying three assists. With starting striker Corey Baird leaving, the door is open for a starting position. Designated player Sebastian Ferreira is back in the mix, as well, after being loaned to Vasco da Gama last season. 

The Quinones injury opens a spot on the left wing, which Aliyu is capable of adapting to and I see a nice bump in production in year two for the Nigerian.

Top Newcomer

Yikes. It was a really disappointing offseason for Houston, who are a worse team coming into this season. They made three sub-par pickups and let Baird walk. Out of the three newcomers, 33-year-old Jan Gregus fits an immediate need with Hector Herrera missing the beginning of the season due to injury. Gabe Segal could fight for action, but I don't see him as a major contributor.

Position Battle to Watch

It's very weird situation where designated player Ferreira was loaned to Vasco da Gama and not expected to return to the team this season. Houston decided to let Baird go, which means Ferreira is back in the fold fighting for a starting spot. In 2022, Ferreira had 13 goals in 31 appearances, so he has shown he can find the back of the net with opportunity. Last season, the team preferred Baird, hence the fallout and loan. I think Ferreira is the front-runner to start, but Aliyu will get his chances at the position as well as each winger role. Segal is also a dark horse, as he was loaned to Hapoel Tel Aviv from NYCFC last season and acquired by Houston via trade.

Outlook

  • Houston was the feel-good story of last season, advancing all the way to the Western Conference final. I'm a big Ben Olsen fan and I don't think it can be understated how good of a job he did last season. Herrera turned into the elite player everyone knew he could be and the team was a blast to watch at home. 

    This season, I have some reservations as the offseason was mostly a bust and they're coming into 2024 with injury doubts. I was surprised that Carrasquilla didn't get a move, as he had a lot of links (and even thanked the fans of Houston), but he will most likely be gone in the summer window. The back line is still intact outside of declining Teenage Hadebe's option. There should see some reinforcements coming in the summer window, especially with the likely departure of Carrasquilla. Houston will struggle without Herrera to start the season, but I expect them to be extremely tough to play against at home in the dog days of summer once again.

  • Ceiling: Western Conference Semifinals
  • Floor: Miss the Playoffs

LA Galaxy

  • 13th in the West - 36 Points
  • Missed the Playoffs

Manager

  • Greg Vanney (2021-present)

Additions

Departures

Designated Players

Young Player to Watch & Top Newcomer

Pec arrives in LA on a club-record fee of $10 million, which could grow to $11.5 million based on incentives. The 23-year-old established himself at Vasco da Gamaand helped secure promotion to the Brazilian Serie A in 2022. Last year was Pec's best season, appearing in 50 matches with 14 goals and five assists. This production got Pec a call-up to Olympic qualifying with Brazil's U23 team, though his experience ended with Brazil failing to qualify for the 2024 Olympics. I'm excited to see Pec in this LA Galaxy team with Riqui Puig sending through balls to him into space. The Galaxy needed a pacey winger with the departure of Tyler Boyd in the offseason and they'll get exactly that in Pec. With the high price tag, Pec will have some pressure, but he should be a great fit in this squad.

Under the Radar Breakout

Joveljic is finally out of Chicharito's shadow and I think he's going to have a breakout season. He's the guy at striker at the moment with no competition as Miguel Berry is his backup. The only major risk could be if LA decided to buy a designated player striker as they still have a spot open. There have been some links with Joseph Paintsil from Genk, but there's been nothing concrete yet. Joveljic was a disappointment last season, only netting six goals in 37 appearances. With a healthy Puig, Joveljic should be able to score 15-plus goals in all competitions.

Position Battle to Watch

It's a three-way battle to start between the posts for the Galaxy. The incumbent Bond didn't have a great 2023 opening the door for competition. McCarthy started for cross-town rival LAFC until Maxime Crepeau returned from injury. Micovic has the highest upside of the three, as his buy-option was triggered from FK Cukaricki who already produced Djordje Petrovic. As far as advanced metrics go, McCarthy had a +1.5 Post-Shot Expected Goals +/- according to fbref.com, while Bond was 63rd in the league at -4.1. I believe that McCarthy is slightly ahead at this point and is the favorite to be the starter for the season opener. If Bond loses the job, I wouldn't be surprised if he was waived or the LA Galaxy would just decline his option for next season.

Outlook

  • The injury bug derailed the LA Galaxy season in 2023. The lone bright spot was Puig, but even he got hurt at the end of the season. The backline was horrendous and the Galaxy conceded the most goals in the league at 67 (eight more than second worst). I love the signing of RB Miki Yamane from Kawasaki Frontale, but center-back looks to be an issue again. Maya Yoshida is a great leader, but the rest of the options are quite poor. Jalen Neal would be a solid option next to Yoshida, but he has battled injuries and is out six-to-eight weeks once again with a lingering abdominal issue. 

    Depth is an issue with this team, but they have the upside to compete in the West. If all things go right and they make another splash signing with their last DP spot, this could be one of the most improved sides in MLS. If Greg Vanney's side has the same issues as last season, expect disappointment once again.

  • Ceiling: Western Conference final
  • Floor: Miss the Playoffs

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Deke Mathews
Outside of rooting on his Philadelphia Union, you can find Deke making spreadsheets, coaching hockey, and teaching 7th grade math.
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