This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC remains at at the Apex in Las Vegas on Saturday, March 23 for UFC Vegas 89. In the main event, Rose Namajunas takes on Amanda Ribas at flyweight.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Steven Nguyen (9-1) vs. Jarno Errens (13-5-1)
Steven Nguyen makes his UFC debut, and I'm backing him to get the win as the favorite against Jarno Errens.
Nguyen is coming off a stoppage win over AJ Cunningham on the Contender Series which was his third appearance on the show, where he was 2-1. Ennis, meanwhile, is 0-2 in the UFC and hasn't impressed, as he doesn't throw much volume.
Ennis is averaging just 1.67 significant strikes per minute while Nguyen is averaging 8.29 significant strikes per minute. Nguyen will be able to land the better shots and cruise to a decision win.
UFC Vegas 89 Best Bet: Steven Nguyen (-170)
Weight Class: Lightweight
Kurt Holobaugh (20-7) vs. Trey Ogden (16-6)
For my underdog pick at UFC Vegas 89, I'm backing Kurt Holobuagh to get the win over Trey Ogden.
Holobuaugh is coming off winning TUF, as he submitted Austin Hubbard in surprising fashion. He now faces Ogden, who has had a very up-and-down UFC career. Both Holobaugh and Ogden are solid on the ground, so it wouldn't be a shock to see this fight play out on the feet.
On the feet, Holobaugh is a very capable striker, as he throws a ton of volume, while Ogden is more cautious. This will be a very competitive fight, and one that could be a split decision, but I like Holobaugh to be more active on the feet to get the nod.
UFC Vegas 89 Best Bet: Kurt Holobaugh (+124)
Weight Class: Women's Flyweight
Rose Namajunas (11-6) vs. Amanda Ribas (12-4)
In the main event of UFC Vegas 89, Rose Namajunas takes on Amanda Ribas, and I'm backing Namajunas to get the win by KO/TKO/DQ.
Namajunas is a great striker, and although she doesn't have a ton of power, Ribas' chin is a concern, as she tends to absorb big shots and is there to be hit. Ribas has been knocked out twice in the UFC, as Maycee Barber finished her with ground-and-pound while Marina Rodriguez knocked her out.
Namajunas should be able to land heavy shots and eventually, likely in the championship rounds, will put Ribas away due to the sustained damage.
UFC Vegas 89 Best Bet: Rose Namajunas by KO/TKO/DQ (+140)
Weight Classes: Featherweight & Middleweight
Fernando Padilla (15-5) vs. Luis Pajuelo (8-1)
Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4) vs AJ Dobson (7-2)
This isn't the best card to parlay, as most of the fights are close odds, but for my parlay, I'm backing Fernando Padilla and Edmen Shahbazyan to get their hands raised.
Padilla is coming off a disappointing loss to Kyle Nelson in a fight he didn't look good in, but I like this spot for him against Luis Pajuelo. Padilla has a 6.5-inch reach advantage and should be able to use his length and jab to cruise to a decision win.
For the other leg, I like Edmen Shahbazyan to beat AJ Dobson. Shahbazyan is 1-4 in his last five and has struggled as of late, as his cardio is a concern. He is no longer the top prospect he was touted to be, but this is a winnable fight against Dobson.
Dobson is 1-2 in the UFC and is there to be hit, as he absorbs 5.25 significant strikes per minute. Shahbazyan should be able to land the better shots and possibly put Dobson away, but if not, will at least win the first and second rounds.
UFC Vegas 89 Best Bet: Fernando Padilla & Edmen Shahbazyan parlay (+138)
UFC Vegas 89 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 89 best bets:
- Steven Nguyen (-170)
- Kurt Holobaugh (+124)
- Rose Namajunas by KO/TKO/DQ (+140)
- Fernando Padilla & Edmen Shahbazyan parlay (+138)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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