The UFC returns after its longest layoff in recent memory to bring us a 12-fight card that promises finishes and some intriguing matchups. We'll take a look at each bout across three platforms, including two distinct Prize Picks formats. This week, we take the over on a few bouts projected to finish in the blink of an eye and bank on a knockout artist to get back on track. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Preston Parsons ($7,800)
The fact that Matthew Semelsberger has so many fights where he hasn't seen the canvas likely has to do with opponent draw and a penchant for fast finishes, as he was taken down a total of 10 times in fights with AJ Fletcher and Jeremiah Wells. Parsons is vulnerable to a knockout, but Semelsberger's style is more focused on quick strikes than sustained offense, which should give Parsons the ability to find his ground game.
Ricky Simon ($8,600)
Simon finally found someone he couldn't run over with pace and wrestling in Yadong Song but seems to have a much more forgiving style matchup in the person of Mario Bautista, who tends to focus more on scrambling on the ground than actually defending takedowns. Explosive offense and a tricky guard game may surprise Simon, but it's hard to fade the 31-year-old in this matchup, as he has averaged a whopping 86.9 DraftKings points.
Joshua Van ($8,800)
Van is coming in as a late replacement but is the rightful favorite here, as Felipe Bunes looks like a fighter who has gotten by on length and athleticism on the regional scene. While he will have another reach advantage here, Van should be in his face from the opening bell, and Brunes doesn't do well when he is unable to keep range. I expect van to do a bit of everything to get the victory in this one, landing a high volume of strikes while mixing in takedowns to keep his opponent off balance.
Farid Basharat ($8,900)
I was close to pulling the trigger on Taylor Lapilus as a fighter who can use a good, stiff jab and movement to control range and work his deeper boxing combinations. My hesitation is that Basharat will constantly be in his face with offense, and it's hard to pick a fighter with minimal power to be on his back foot and pick up the victory. On a slate where viable underdogs are a bit hard to come by, you could do worse than "Double Impact," but I ultimately expect Basharat to take over the fight in his usual manner.
Jim Miller ($8,200)
You wouldn't expect Miller to be one of the more reliable DraftKings scorers at the age of 40, but "A-10" has notched over 100 points in three of his last four wins. Gabriel Benitez has always been a clever striker, but struggles when pressured, and Miller has a knack for breaking opponents. It's also worth noting that "Moogly" has had difficulty with wrestlers in the past, as evidenced by his 48 percent takedown defense rate. This gives Miller several different avenues to force a favorable fight, while Benitez will largely look to have a kickboxing match for 15 minutes.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Magomed Ankalaev OVER 36.5 Significant Strikes, Waldo Cortes-Acosta OVER 38.5 Significant Strikes, and Marcus McGhee Under 40.5 Significant Strikes
It seems that DFS sites everywhere want to treat Magomed Ankalaev like a wrestler and submission grappler. The reality is he is much more comfortable as a kickboxer, as he has only landed about one takedown per 15 minutes of Octagon time, and has never attempted a submission in the UFC. Before their first fight ended due to a knee to a downed opponent in Round 1, Ankalaev and Johnny Walker were trading leg kicks, which contributed to him notching 12 significant strikes. Higher weight classes generally see finishes at a higher rate, but I think the most likely outcome is a breeze past this number.
Cortes-Acosta got his first UFC finish in his last fight, and Andrei Arlovski has been finished in each of his last two. This naturally has our line gravitating to a lower total, but I'm not convinced of either Cortes-Acosta's finishing ability, nor that Arlovski's durability has faded. For starters, one of Arlovski's losses in this stretch was by submission, which the former Cincinnati Reds prospect is unlikely to replicate. More importantly, though, "Salsa Boy" has finished just five of his 10 wins by KO/TKO, and Arlovski has only been knocked out once in his last nine fights. This tells me that the former heavyweight champion will try to score with his jab, while Cortes-Acosta throws telegraphed power shots. I am still confident that it takes a bit more craft to finish Arlovski than a few haymakers.
McGhee and Gaston Bolanos are two powerful strikers who both seem to have gotten the upper hand in fights by leaning on their athleticism. The two will match each other in that regard, leaving both of them to be available to be hit with big shots. Unless someone tries to wrestle, I expect an early finish in this one, as neither man seems equipped with fantastic defensive skills.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Manel Kape OVER 14.75 Minutes of Fight Time, Jean Silva OVER 4.0 Minutes of Fight Time, and Tom Nolan OVER 5.0 Minutes of fight time.
I may be a bit of a cheat here, as the first fight between Kape and Matheus Nicolau went to decision, but I am taking my cues more from the fact that Nicolau has excellent command of range and has shown himself to be durable in the past. Kape can certainly be explosive, but tends to pick his shots early, and doesn't have the hurricane style of Brandon Royval, despite being the better fighter overall. Thus, I think these two will stand and trade at range more often than one might expect, leading to this fight seeing the final bell.
There may be a tendency to see a bit too much of Jordan Wright in Westin Wilson. That's not to say Wilson can't be finished, but this karate stylist does seem to be a bit tougher and better at keeping distance. Silva is undoubtedly powerful, but tends to explode into counter shots rather than go and find his finish. The fact that he went to decision in his Contender Series fight may be an indication that those knockouts won't be so easy to come by going forward.
I was incredibly impressed by Nolan on the Contender Series, but I'm not ready to annoit him as a killer just yet. Nikolas Motta has shown tougness in the cage, despite being finished in all five of his losses. I'm betting it doesn't happen quite so early here, as Nolan will need to learn how to deal with a veteran who won't automatically go away at the first sign of trouble.
Bets to Consider
Brunno Ferreira wins via KO/TKO (+125)
Ferreira's knockout loss to Nursulton Ruziboev may have occurred under strange circumstances, as it looked like his fall to the canvas after being tripped may have been what dazed him initially. In any case, he now takes on something of a glass cannon in Phil Hawes, who has a tendency to look good in fights until his defense lets him down. I don't think he will be able to stand up to the power of "The Hulk," meaning this one will end in a knockout unless Hawes can keep him grounded for the better part of 15 minutes.
For more UFC betting picks, check out our UFC Vegas 84 Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
ESPN BET is officially live as of November 2023. Sign up with the ESPN BET promo code ROTO for $250 in bonus bets!
If you prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
