The UFC's offering in Macau features an oddly consequential main event compared to the rest of the card, which includes several debuting local fighters. We'll take a look at all 13 bouts across three different platforms, including an undersized dog who can get the job done and a streaking light heavyweight primed for another finish. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Petr Yan ($9,000)
After three consecutive losses against elite-level talent, Yan showed just how good he is with a dominating win over Yadong Song in March. As he often does, the former champion needed a round before he got going. This shouldn't be an issue against Deiveson Figueiredo, who often likes to take a counter-striking approach early in fights. While he is a ferocious top-position grappler, "Deus da Guerra" can be stuck on his back, and Yan can effortlessly mix his striking and wrestling.
Carlos Hernandez ($8,600)
For someone with only two KO/TKO victories on his resume, Nyamjargal Tumendemberel is fond of standing in the pocket and throwing hands. He can generally use that pace and pressure to implement his grappling game. I don't expect this to work against a veteran like Carlos Hernandez, who has good footwork, a solid jab, and can work a wrestling game of his own. If Tumendemberel can't catch Hernandez early, I expect the 31-year-old to control this fight for three rounds.
Long Xiao ($8,200)
Xiao has been pitted against so many relentless grapplers lately that he hasn't had much of an opportunity to show his offensive wrestling. He should get that chance against Quang Le, who will look to throw big shots in the pocket. Long's game is as well-rounded as any prelim fighter on this slate, and he should be able to put it all together to notch a big score here.
Balgyn Jenisuly ($7,900)
His nickname may be "You-Jitsu" but Su Young You is perfectly comfortable letting his opponent lead the dance on the feet, opting to have a slow kickboxing match. Jenisuly will likely not allow this, as he will come forward and throw big shots as an entry into his wrestling attack. This could lead to a dominant performance, but a more likely scenario is that the Chinese fighter outworks his opponent over three rounds.
Muslim Salikhov ($8,500)
"The King of Kung Fu" has been the king of drawn-out striking matches in recent times, but we will likely see him go back to his wrestling against Song Kenan, who is a wild and powerful striker. This kind of attack could also open up some counters for Salikhov when Kenan charges into range. It's always difficult to predict a big score for Salikhov, but he should be able to generate a decent cash game score at this price.
Shi Ming ($7,000)
Even with a pronounced size advantage, I'm having trouble picking Xiaocan Feng, whose upright posture and stationary style have seen her taken down by smaller fighters in the past. Ming has a scrappy style reminiscent of wrestle-boxers in heavier divisions, which should be enough for "The Doctor" to give a good account of herself.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Cong Wang OVER 71.5 Significant Strikes, Yan Xiaonan UNDER 77.5 Significant Strikes, and Dong Hoon Choi UNDER 60.5 Significant Strikes
Wang's quick finish in her UFC debut was a combination of her aggressive style and Victoria Leonardo's extreme lack of defense. While she is squaring off against a much better opponent in Gabriella Fernandes, Wang will still be able to walk forward and pile up the strikes, relying on her pressure and wrestling defense to stay upright.
We have seen instances in which Tabatha Ricci is more than happy to kickbox with an opponent for 15 minutes. Against Xiaonan, however, she will be at a four-inch height disadvantage, making it difficult for her to stand at range. Expect "Baby Shark" to look to get on the inside whenever possible, resulting in takedown attempts and short strikes from the clinch.
Choi will need to be cautious against Kiru Sahota, who throws long strikes with power from a karate stance. The Korean fighter tends to fight at a slower pace, which could result in these two having a slow, rangy kickboxing match for three rounds.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Hayisaer Maheshate OVER 10 Minutes of Fight Time, Lone'er Kavanagh OVER 11.5 Minutes of Fight Time, and Zhang Mingyang UNDER 4.75 Minutes of Fight Time
While never shy about throwing himself into a firefight, Maheshate has been far from a prolific finisher, notching just four KO/TKO victories among his ten wins. On the flip side, he has been knocked out just once in 13 professional fights. He will need that toughness against Nikolas Motta, who counts ten stoppages by strikes among his 14 victories. While there will be plenty of swinging in the pocket in this one, the slow pace of the bout itself will carry us over this total.
Kavanaugh had one of the scarier knockouts we've seen on The Contender Series, but the London native went into the third round in each of his previous four fights, which makes me wonder if that kind of performance is repeatable. This is a particularly valid question against Jose Ochoa, who will also be hunting for a knockout. The respect for the power of his opponent should be enough to give us a fight that meanders along and reaches our total here.
Mingyang only knows one speed in the cage, as evidenced by the fact that his last 14 fights have finished in the first round. Ozzy Diaz tends to stand squarely in front of his opponent to try and land big shots, meaning that this one will end quickly one way or another.
Bets to Consider
Carlos Ulberg Wins via KO/TKO (+150)
Ulberg has progressed from being a hesitant fighter with potential to someone who goes after his opponents, as we can see from the fact that he has finished three of his last four fights in the first round. Volkan Oezdemir has struggled when dealing with powerful opponents who push the pace. Unless he puts on his wrestling shoes to an extent we've never seen before, it seems unlikely that "No Time" will be able to avoid running into the big shot.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our UFC Macau Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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