UFC London Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The UFC heads to London for a card that is a bit more consequential than the Apex events we have seen lately. We'll break down every bout on the 13-fight card, including a powerful bantamweight looking to get back in the win column and a former champion who is being disrespected. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Alexia Thainara ($8,900)
Thainara's agility, slick boxing and wrestling prowess make her a promising entry in the strawweight division. Molly McCann was once thought of this way, but the inability to defend takedowns has made her far too easy to gameplan against. When we consider the sizeable athleticism advantage she will have here, Thainara begins to look mighty tempting as a favorite under $9,000.
Gunnar Nelson ($8,500)
I have my issues with the organization, but I fully support the UFC's apparent plan to match Kevin Holland against committed grapplers going forward. "Trailblazer" looked downright listless in his loss to Reinier de Ridder, and there's no reason to expect that Gunnar Nelson will do anything less, even with a two-year layoff. It should be noted that this fight is back at welterweight, and while this should put Holland on a more even playing field in terms of strength, he is still impossible to trust until he shows interest in preparing for opponents who will wrestle him.
Morgan Charriere ($8,700)
As a powerful, explosive kickboxer who has shown chops on the ground, Charriere looks like the total package. This should mean a dangerous fight for Nathaniel Wood, who is a dynamic striker in his own right but is far too stationary to keep up with an athletic opponent who will be able to mix the martial arts effectively.
Caolan Loughran ($7,900)
I've described Loughran as a fighter built to do well on the regional scene in the past. I believe the same critcism applies to Nathan Fletcher, who goes as hard as he can with pressure and grappling, hoping to overwhelm his opponents. I believe Loughran is well-suited for this matchup, as he will stay on the pressure from the opening bell, throws varied, powerful strikes, and should be difficult to take down thanks to his short, muscular frame. When we remember that the Irish fighter can throw in his own wrestling, it seems likely that he will be able to stop Fletcher's first line of attack, leaving him without answers.
Jai Herbert ($8,300)
Herbert's offensive wrestling is the perfect complement to a lanky frame and strong kickboxing fundamentals. While his takedown defense leaves something to be desired overall, he was able to stop four of five attempts against a strong, tricky grappler in Fares Ziam. Chris Padilla has overperformed in the UFC due to his explosivity and aggression, but this is likely too big of a test for him.
Leon Edwards ($7,600)
Sean Brady will be the more active wrestler in this matchup, but we've seen in bouts with Colby Covington and Belal Muhammad that Edwards can grapple with the best of them. While Brady has bounced back well following his own loss to the current welterweight champion, his penchant to enter on straight lines got him tagged more than once by Gilbert Burns, and Edwards will be able to use a sizeable height advantage to counter punch and snipe from range.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Shauna Bannon OVER 70.5 Significant Strikes, Marcin Tybura OVER 40.5 Significant Strikes, and Guram Kutateladze UNDER 64.5 Significant Strikes
Frankly, I don't believe Bannon or Puja Tomar are UFC-caliber fighters. Both ladies like to bounce around on the outside and dart in with kicks, but they generally lack the power or technique to make these weapons effective. Regardless, they should trade strikes for the better part of three rounds.
Tybura and Michael Parkin are more than willing to kickbox with their opponents. The Polish fighter has shown durability in the face of power punchers before, and Parkin tends to work his way into fights, which should give us enough room to get over this line.
Kutateladze is a slow counter fighter by nature, but the key to this matchup will be the persistent leg kicks of Kaue Fernandes, which will make it difficult for "Georgian Viking" to stand at range. Kutateladze went to his wrestling to change the tempo of his bout against Jordan Vucenic, and I expect that we'll see a similar dynamic here.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Christian Leroy Duncan UNDER 9.75 Minutes of Fight Time, and Carlos Ulberg UNDER 14.99 Minutes of Fight Time
Lines seem to be particularly generous regarding finishers lately, as Duncan and debutante Andrey Pulyaev will look to stand in the pocket for as long as this fight lasts. Between Duncan's explosive offense and Pulyaev's upright posture, it shouldn't take long before this fight sees a winner.
It's not often we see a line that essentially asks us to bet on a decision, but I think that's exactly what we will get here. Ulberg has been better about taking the fight to his opponents during his winning streak, but Jan Blachowicz forces others to fight at his pace. "Polish Power" is an excellent counter striker, and a physically strong grappler, which should make Ulberg hesitant about opening up with big shots.
Bets to Consider
Jordan Vucenic Wins via KO/TKO (+360)
Vucenic's speed jumped off the screen in his debut, allowing him to rock Guram multiple times before he was forced to wrestle. Chris Duncan is a more committed wrestler but does not have the poise or technique of Guram. Duncan creates havoc whenever he is in the cage, but the power and agility of Vucenic should prove too much for him here.
Lone'er Kavanagh Wins via KO/TKO (+370)
Kavanagh's style of prodding with kicks and making opposition pay when entering the pocket seems like an excellent strategy against Felipe dos Santos, who seemingly can't help but crash in with big strikes from range. I expect Kavanagh to break the Brazilian down with counter shots before finding the finish.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Best Bets for UFC London for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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