This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Atlantic City card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Angel Pacheco (7-2-0) v. Caolan Loughran (8-1-0)
Angel Pacheco - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 7 wins
Caolan Loughran - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Pacheco is making his debut after a Contender Series loss, while Loughran is appearing in his second UFC fight after an ugly debut loss. This is pretty straightforward: Pacheco is better on the feet, and Loughran is better on the mat. If Loughran finds success with takedowns, he should win and score well. However, Pacheco has shown decent takedown defense, and his forward pressure could keep Loughran on his back foot. I expect Loughran to find just enough success to edge this one out.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Loughran
Andre Petroski (10-2-0) v. Jacob Malkoun (7-3-0)
Andre Petroski - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Jacob Malkoun - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 7 wins
DFS Perspective: The striking is pretty even in this matchup, and it should come down to whoever implements the better wrestling. Petroski is likely slightly better at grappling, but I expect Malkoun to be the better wrestler. As long as he avoids getting submitted, he should chain takedowns and record a massive score for DFS.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Malkoun
Melissa Gatto (8-2-2) v. Viktoriia Dudakova (8-0-0)
Melissa Gatto - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Viktoriia Dudakova - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be Dudakova's toughest fight to date. I expect Gatto to be better everywhere. However, Dudakova has never lost. This fight should be close, but Gatto's technical striking should keep Dudakova on the outside reaching. I would not expect a high score to come out of this fight without a finish, which is equally unlikely.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Gatto
Ibo Aslan (12-1-0) v. Anton Turkalj (8-3-0)
Ibo Aslan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 12 wins
Anton Turkalj - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Turkalj has not shown he is UFC-caliber through three losses with the promotion. Aslan is making his debut and is deadly on the feet, but he has never really been tested by a strong grappler. Though I have slight worries about his takedown defense and cardio, I expect Aslan to take control in the first and eventually knock Turkalj out.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Aslan
Connor Matthews (7-1-0) v. Dennis Buzukja (11-4-0)
Connor Matthews - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 7 wins
Dennis Buzukja - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Buzukja has lost both of his UFC fights and has not looked good in either. Matthews is making his UFC debut after an impressive and dominant performance on the Contender Series. I expect Matthews to do what Buzukja could not and win in his debut. I would not be surprised to see another dominant performance and a high score for DFS.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Matthews
Julio Arce (18-6-0) v. Herbert Burns (11-4-0)
Julio Arce - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" - Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 18 wins
Herbert Burns - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Burns has not fought in almost two years and is now 36. He was also knocked out in his two most recent fights. There is little faith that he will have much more success in the UFC. Arce should be better everywhere and dominate this fight.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Arce
Virna Jandiroba (19-3-0) v. Lupita Godinez (12-3-0)
Virna Jandiroba - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 19 wins
Lupita Godinez - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: As long as Godinez avoids being submitted by Jandiroba, she should control and dominate this fight. Godinez has repeatedly proven that she has the complete game to challenge for the belt, and her run does not stop here.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Godinez
Nate Landwehr (17-5-0) v. Jamall Emmers (20-7-0)
Nate Landwehr - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 10 wins
Jamall Emmers - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: I would give Emmers better odds if he were more active, but I do not see how he wins this fight if he cannot land a knockout. Landwehr will be the fighter bringing more pressure, throwing more volume and potentially landing takedowns. This is Landwehr's fight to lose.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Landwehr
Chidi Njokuani (22-10-0) v. Rhys McKee (13-5-1)
Chidi Njokuani - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 22 wins
Rhys McKee - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This is likely McKee's last chance to remain on the roster, as he has lost all three of his UFC fights so far. Njokuani started with two consecutive wins in the UFC but has since lost three straight. Either fighter could record an early knockout, so both become solid plays for GPP. However, I expect McKee to get his first UFC win and keep himself in the promotion.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: McKee
Bill Algeo (18-7-0) v. Kyle Nelson (15-5-1)
Bill Algeo - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" - Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 18 wins
Kyle Nelson - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Though Nelson has strung together two consecutive wins, Algeo is a better version of him and far more technical. I expect Algeo to piece Nelson up to a decision win. However, without a finish this is likely low-scoring.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Algeo
Nursulton Ruziboev (33-8-2) v. Sedriques Dumas (9-1-0)
Nursulton Ruziboev - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 31 finishes in 33 wins
Sedriques Dumas - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Dumas has won two straight fights against lesser opponents, while Ruziboev recorded a knockout in his UFC debut. Dumas is still suspect and has many glaring holes in his defense. I expect Ruziboev to have the edge everywhere and end this fight early. He should be one of the best plays on the slate.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Ruziboev
Bruno Silva (23-10-0) v. Chris Weidman (15-7-0)
Bruno Silva - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 23 wins
Chris Weidman - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Weidman should never have returned after his significant injury. In his two fights since returning, he was knocked out in 17 seconds and dominated in a decision. Silva is far more dangerous and should have no issue finding a knockout in this fight, making him an excellent play for all DFS contests.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Silva
Vicente Luque (22-9-1) v. Joaquin Buckley (17-6-0)
Vicente Luque - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 22 wins
Joaquin Buckley - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight is a pick 'em for a reason. Both fighters are evenly matched, and it likely comes down to the damage done. Luque will have the edge on the mat if he succeeds with takedowns, while Buckley will have an advantage with power. Though Luque tends to eat a lot of shots, I expect him to be the one pressuring and finding his mark more often. Plus, he will throw more volume, and his kicks are dangerous.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Luque
Erin Blanchfield (12-1-0) v. Manon Fiorot (19-9-0)
Erin Blanchfield - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 66" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 12 wins
Manon Fiorot - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: While both ladies have been in the UFC, I have taken them to win every fight they have been in. Unfortunately, they both cannot win here. If Fiorot can stop the takedowns, she will win this fight with her striking. While Fiorot has shown elite takedown defense, Blanchfield is a different animal and should find success more often than not. Whoever wins this fight will likely make the optimal DFS lineup. I expect that to be Blanchfield.
UFC Atlantic City Pick: Blanchfield
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
