This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC 307 Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 307 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Tim Means (33-16-1) v. Court McGee (21-13-0)
Tim Means - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 25 finishes in 33 wins
Court McGee - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: Although these guys are 40 and 39 years old, respectively, they are both still capable of entertaining fights. This fight should be close, and I would not be surprised to see a split decision. This fight is unlikely to score well for DFS purposes, so I would enjoy watching the two veterans duke it out.
UFC 307 Pick: Means
Ovince St. Preux (27-17-0) v. Ryan Spann (21-10-0)
Ovince Saint Preux - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 27 wins
Ryan Spann - Height: 6'5" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: OSP is another fighter likely heading toward retirement soon. He looked rejuvenated in his most recent fight that he won, but we have seen these late rejuvenations generally only last a fight or two. Unfortunately for him, Spann will likely be too much. I expect Spann to hit the gas pedal, pressuring forward and ending this fight within the first couple of rounds. Spann will be popular but a solid play for all contests.
UFC 307 Pick: Spann
Carla Esparza (19-7-0) v. Tecia Pennington (13-7-0)
Carla Esparza - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 19 wins
Tecia Pennington - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 60" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 2 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This fight likely comes down to how much volume Pennington can get in before being controlled on the mat. Esparza will undoubtedly be shooting for takedowns early and often, and if she finds success, she should score well for DFS. Pennington will not be able to do enough in a win to score well for DFS, making this a dog or pass fight.
UFC 307 Pick: Esparza
Alexander Hernandez (14-8-0) v. Austin Hubbard (16-7-0)
Alexander Hernandez - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Austin Hubbard - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Losing four of his last five fights makes it difficult to trust Hernandez to get this done. He looks really solid for a round, and then his cardio tapers off. Fighting at elevation is not going to help him, either. Hubbard is a low-level fighter but offers a little bit of everything regarding his fights. If he can keep Hernandez on the mat after taking him down, he can steal this win and score well as a dog for DFS.
UFC 307 Pick: Hubbard
Ihor Potieria (21-6-0) v. Cesar Almeida (5-1-0)
Ihor Potieria - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 20 wins
Cesar Almeida - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 5 wins
DFS Perspective: Almeida took his first career loss last time out after struggling to defend takedowns. However, Potieria has yet to land a takedown in the UFC and has preferred to stay on the feet. Almeida should prove too much and too quick for Potieria on the feet, eventually knocking him out within the first two rounds. Almeida might not be as popular as other options on this slate and could be a solid contrarian play if you think this ends in the first round.
UFC 307 Pick: Almeida
Marina Rodriguez (17-4-2) v. Iasmin Lucindo (16-5-0)
Marina Rodriguez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 17 wins
Iasmin Lucindo - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Rodriguez is a phenomenal striker and would win striking matches in nearly all of her fights. However, she struggles against takedowns and has issues getting back to her feet. Lucindo will have a massive edge in that department, and it will not be surprising to see her get three plus takedowns and at least seven minutes of control time in this fight if it goes to a decision. Lucindo makes an excellent selection for DFS contests.
UFC 307 Pick: Lucindo
Stephen Thompson (17-7-1) v. Joaquin Buckley (19-6-0)
Stephen Thompson - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 17 wins
Joaquin Buckley - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: If this fight stays on the feet, it will likely remain close with damage and volume. However, if Buckley goes back to his wrestling and shoots for takedowns like he did in his most recent win, this will be an easy win for him. Thompson struggles with takedown defense and being controlled, so I cannot imagine Buckley not going to it. Buckley has scored well in three of his last four wins and using his wrestling only adds to that value.
UFC 307 Pick: Buckley
Roman Dolidze (13-3-0) v. Kevin Holland (26-11-0)
Roman Dolidze - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 13 wins
Kevin Holland - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 22 finishes in 26 wins
DFS Perspective: Dolidze will have a much better chance of winning if he uses his wrestling and takes this to the mat. How close the striking is depends on which version of Holland shows up. If he comes out wanting to showboat and talk rather than fight, this fight will be slow and ugly. If he comes out wanting to strike and fight, we will get an entertaining fight with a lot of volume. I would only play either fighter in GPP contests due to that nature, but my lean will be Holland.
UFC 307 Pick: Holland
Kayla Harrison (17-1-0) v. Ketlen Vieira (14-3-0)
Kayla Harrison - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 66" – Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 17 wins
Ketlen Vieira - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Harrison is one of the best female fighters in the world. Vieira will be unable to do anything to avoid getting rag-dolled in this fight. Lock Harrison in.
UFC 307 Pick: Harrison
Jose Aldo (32-8-0) v. Mario Bautista (14-2-0)
Jose Aldo - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 18 finishes in 32 wins
Mario Bautista - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 69" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Given Aldo's takedown defense, Bautista will not have success getting this to the mat. This should be 15 minutes of striking, as neither is likely to knock out the other. Bautista generally throws more volume, but Aldo is elite at making fighters slow down and fight how he wants them. Aldo should dictate this fight and likely put out more damage. Neither is a good play for DFS, as this is likely lower scoring.
UFC 307 Pick: Aldo
Raquel Pennington (16-8-0) v. Julianna Pena (10-5-0)
Raquel Pennington - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 67" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 16 wins
Julianna Pena - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: Pena has not fought in nearly two years since losing the championship belt. Without winning any other fights, she gets a title shot right away against the resurgent Pennington, who has won six straight. Pena might have the edge in power, but I would give Pennington the edge everywhere else. I expect Pennington to mix in volume with takedowns and control to retain the belt. This is five rounds and likely scores well for DFS.
UFC 307 Pick: Pennington
Alex Pereira (11-2-0) v. Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-5-0)
Alex Pereira - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
Khalil Rountree - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: There is nothing aside from Rountree's power and a knockout that wins him this fight. While anything is possible, Pereira might be the most composed and imposing fighter in the UFC, and I would not expect him to lose the belt here. Pereira will look to do the same thing he did to Jamahal Hill, back him up against the fence, and record yet another knockout. Since this fight is nearly a lock to end early, having both fighters in GPP contests is a must. However, I would play heavily on Pereira and use him in cash contests.
UFC 307 Pick: Pereira
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
