This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
A salvaged co-main event doesn't begin to describe the Chaos at the top of the card for UFC 272, which takes place on Saturday at 6:00 PM ET. We'll cover every fight on the 13-bout slate across four platforms, including a lightning-fast kickboxer looking to get back in the win column, and a light heavyweight who deserves a bit more respect.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Colby Covington ($9,400)
Love him or hate him, Covington has been a DK cash cow against anyone in the division not named Kamaru Usman, having logged over 110 points in eight of his 14 UFC fights. Much of what I wrote about Jorge Masvidal leading up to his first fight with Usman applies here, as "Gamebred" is far too comfortable putting his back against the fence in fights, which will read as an open invitation to a tireless wrestler like Covington. One notable difference may be that "Chaos" hasn't always been able to control good scramblers, having to take them down multiple times in a bout. This likely would only lead to more points for prospective owners, however, as Covington has shown himself to be incredibly tough to finish.
Tagir Ulanbekov ($9,000)
Ulanbekov's upright stance has resulted in the Dagestani fighter getting cracked a time or two, but he shouldn't have much to fear in the striking department from Tim Elliott, who counts just three KO/TKOs among his 17 victories. It should be noted that a grapple-heavy fight is one that gives Elliott his best chance to win, but Ulanbekov will likely be too heavy on top to allow his opponent to scramble effectively. Elliot has logged just a 56 percent takedown defense rate in his career, which should allow for Ulanbekov to spend a lot of time in dominant position.
Sergey Spivac ($8,700)
Spivac has relied on his hands for most of his UFC career but has done real damage whenever he has employed his wrestling, scoring over 100 DraftKings points in all three fights in which he has landed at least one takedown. We have seen "Polar Bear" absolutely melt in the presence of big punchers, but Greg Hardy hasn't exactly been a knockout artist when it comes to top competition, opting instead to stay on his toes and land quick, single strikes. As with most of his fights, Hardy will have the speed and athleticism advantage in the first five minutes. The longer this fight goes, however, the more Spivac will be able to chip away with physicality. While we should expect all fighters to improve in their careers, the absolute lack of awareness he showed on the ground against Marcin Tybura in 2020 can't be ignored. Hardy will always be someone to pick against in these spots until he can show some semblance of ground defense.
Yan Xiaonan ($6,900)
It might be enough to say that Xiaonan is one of the most talented fighters to ever don such a price tag, but the Chinese fighter will look to pour on pressure from the opening bell, which has worked to fluster Marina Rodriguez in the past. It's also worth noting that the 34-year-old is a bit too comfortable playing jiu-jitsu off of her back, having been grounded for at least 3:00 minutes by every opponent who has taken her down in the UFC. Xiaonan is strong for the division and will wrestle when the situation calls for it, as we saw when she took down Karolina Kowalkiewicz five times during their bout in 2019.
Rafael dos Anjos ($7,200)
It didn't take long for the UFC to find a replacement when Rafael Fiziev contracted COVID-19, as Renato Moicano was given the bout less than 24 hours after the announcement. The temptation will undoubtedly exist to treat "RDA" in the same way we treated Masvidal in our breakdown of the Main Event, but the difference here is that the former lightweight champion isn't going up against one of the division's elite wrestlers. A more apt comparison for this bout would be dos Anjos' matchup with Kevin Lee, wherein he scored six takedowns en route to a submission victory. If dos Anjos can keep his feet, he has a chance to do what I thought Alexander Hernandez might, and break him with consistent offense. While shoddy striking defense from "The Great" allowed Moicano to find his footing after the end of Round 1, "RDA" will likely remain solid, having absorbed just 3.22 significant strikes per minute in his storied UFC career. It should be noted that Moicano is listed at $7,300, making it a decent bet that one of these high-level competitors finds their way to the optimal lineup.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks
Umar Nurmagomedov UNDER 3.5 Takedowns and Bryce Mitchell UNDER 2.5 Takedowns.
Nurmagomedov expertly floated through positions in his UFC debut against Sergey Morozov, which resulted in five takedowns and a dominant unanimous decision victory. Ricky Simon is the only fighter who has taken down Brian Kelleher more than twice in his UFC career, and we have seen that Nurmagomedov is more comfortable striking than others who bear his surname. Kelleher will likely need to rely on his wrestling defense at some point, but the suffocating pressure he dealt with in the Simon fight won't be present here, which should allow him to use his footwork to stay out of trouble.
For all the problems he's had with wrestlers who can push a pace, Edson Barboza has been quite good at stopping takedowns in open space, sprawling quickly on opponents to keep himself upright. Khabib Nurmagomedov frantically drove "Junior" to the fence to account for this, but Bryce Mitchell has never taken this approach, preferring to throw big shots to disguise his entries instead. It's hard to overstate the speed and athleticism advantage Barboza will enjoy here, which will make him very difficult to track down unless Mitchell decides to change tactics.
Plays to Consider on SuperDraft
L'udovit Klein – 2.25X Multiplier
Klein's overwhelming speed and power were on full display in his UFC debut against Shane Young, but the 27-year-old faltered against back-to-back opponents who poured on the pressure. Devonte Smith should be a welcome change of pace for Klein, as he has shown himself to be much more willing to give his opponents space and fight at range. Either man could end up on the wrong side of a knockout in this one, but we have seen Smith pay for overextending on punches before, and Klein can be lethal with his counter combinations. Klein will also be the more likely of the two to wrestle, which could work to drain Smith's gas tank, as we saw in his bout with Jamie Mullarkey.
Michal Oleksiejczuk – 2.25X Multiplier
In the interest of full disclosure, I should say that I view Oleksiejczuk as one of the most underrated fighters in the light heavyweight division. His speed, power and consistent work to the body handed Shamil Gamzatov the first loss of his career in October. While he has shown a clear weakness against wrestlers and grapplers, he shouldn't have to worry about that against Dustin Jacoby, who has landed just two takedowns in eight UFC appearances and has never attempted a submission. "The Hanyak" ate several clean shots from a visibly tired Ion Cutelaba in the third round of their fight and is unlikely to use his physicality to wear on Oleksiejczuk the way Ovince Saint Preux did when the two fought in 2019.
Kennedy Nzechukwu – 1.95X Multiplier
The only way to explain Nicolae Negumereanu's style of marching after his opponents with his hands low is that he's trying to bait them into a brawl, counting on his toughness and power to see him through. That has largely been successful to this point in his career, but the combination of power and defense presented by Nzechukwu could make things difficult for "Nick" here. A five-inch disadvantage in both height and reach further complicates matters, as Negumereanu will need to get on the inside before swinging wide shots that leave him open to being countered. It seems inevitable that he will try to wrestle as a consequence, but a takedown accuracy rate of just 16 percent in three UFC fights doesn't bode well for the 27-year-old getting this one to the ground.
Plays to Consider on Monkey Knife Fight
Maryna Moroz UNDER 84.5 Strikes and Mariya Agapova OVER 71.5 Strikes
Moroz has gone over this mark in each of her last two fights, but it's important to point out that those bouts were against fighters known for pushing a high pace in Angela Hill and Mayra Bueno Silva. That may have described Agapova prior to her last bout with Sabina Mazo when we saw a much more controlled counter fighter who used her awkward frame and combination punching to constantly sting her opponent on the way in and out of exchanges. Finishes have largely prevented Agapova from registering many strikes in her UFC appearances, but "Demonslayer" has landed a whopping 5.02 significant strikes per minute, and Moroz has yet to be finished in her 13-fight career.
Kevin Holland OVER 64.5 Strikes and Alex Oliveira OVER 41.5 Strikes
The thing to keep in mind about Holland for the purposes of these lines is just how active he is in every phase of the fight. Even in a bout that saw him spend almost 17 minutes on his back against Derek Brunson, "The Trailblazer" finished with an unbelievable 190 total strikes, many of them slapping head strikes to Brunson as he lay on bottom. Alex Oliveira is similarly active whether grappling or striking, as he has cleared his mark in losses to Gunnar Nelson, Mike Perry and Niko Price. I do expect much of this fight to be contested in the clinch as "Cowboy" tries to use his strength and compensate for a reach disadvantage, but that may actually work to our benefit if these two men fight as they have in the past.
Jalin Turner UNDER 68.5 Strikes and Jamie Mullarkey UNDER 51.5 Strikes
This was a difficult one to call on either side, as both of these men will push a pace and throw strikes, but it's a good bet that Mullarkey reverts back to a grapple-heavy approach due to the length of Turner, and we have seen in the past that the Australian fighter doesn't engage in much ground-and-pound while in top position. We must also consider that this fight ends before totals are reached, as these men have only seen the final bell four times in 34 combined fights.
