This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads to Salt Lake City, Utah on Saturday, October 5 for a solid UFC 307 pay-per-view card. The event sees two titles on the line, and in the main event, Alex Pereira looks to defend his light heavyweight belt against Khalil Rountree.
Below, I'll share my UFC 307 predictions, including my favorite pick, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All UFC odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Women's bantamweight
Raquel Pennington (16-8) vs. Julianna Pena (10-5)
In the co-main event of UFC 307, the women's bantamweight title is up for grabs. I'm backing Raquel Pennington to defend her belt for the first time against Julianna Pena.
Pena hasn't fought since July of 2022 when she was dominated by Amanda Nunes, and I don't think she deserves a title shot. Pena doesn't have a win over any fighter that is currently ranked, and she is also 3-3 in her last six.
Pena is not an elite fighter, and although Pennington may not be either, she is the champ and is very durable. Pennington should be able to keep this fight standing and piece up Pena on the feet. Pena is the worse striker and doesn't throw enough volume, so I don't think she will be able to go five hard rounds like Pennington does.
Ultimately, I think Pennington use her volume and pace to cruise to a 49-46 type of decision here. To me, Pennington should be well above -200.
UFC 307 Bet: Raquel Pennington (-175)
Weight Class: Middleweight
Roman Dolidze (13-3) vs. Kevin Holland (26-11, 1 NC)
For my underdog pick at UFC 307, I'm taking Roman Dolidze to get the upset win against Kevin Holland.
Holland is moving back to middleweight, which I don't like. Dolidze just fought at 205lbs and is a big guy. He should have a size and strength advantage against Holland, which will be key when Dolidze attempts to use his wrestling.
The way to beat Holland is to take him down and hold him there. Dolidze also has a good chin and should be able to take the shots from Holland. I don't trust Holland's takedown defense in this spot, making it unlikely he keeps it standing. So, I'll back Dolidze as the underdog to get the takedowns and ultimately the win.
UFC 307 Bet: Roman Dolidze (+124)
Weight Class: Women's bantamweight
Kayla Harrison (17-1) vs. Ketlen Vieira (14-3)
On the main card of UFC 307, Kayla Harrison takes on Ketlen Vieira, and I like Harrison to win her second UFC fight by stoppage.
Harrison had a case to be fighting for the bantamweight title on this card. Harrison is a two-time Olympic gold medalist in Judo and should have a strength and grappling advantage here. In Harrison's UFC debut, we saw her run through Holly Holm, and I expect something similar here against Vieira.
Although Vieira has only been finished once, Harrison is a different animal, especially with her grappling. Harrison should be able to control Vieira on the mat and likely get a ground-and-pound TKO win. But, to play it safe, in case she gets ahold of her back, I'll take Harrison to win by stoppage.
UFC 307 Bet: Kayla Harrison by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (+110)
Weight Classes: Light heavyweight & welterweight
Ryan Spann (21-10) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (27-17)
Joaquin Buckley (19-6) vs. Stephen Thompson (17-7-1)
For my parlay at UFC 307, I'm taking Ryan Spann and Joaquin Buckley to get their hands raised Saturday.
Spann takes on St. Preux, and this is a good spot for Spann to get back in the win column. Spann has lost three in a row, but in his last fight, he had success against Bogdan Guskov before he got caught. St. Preux doesn't have that type of power, as I expect Spann to get a decision win by being the more active striker and landing the more damaging shots.
To close out the parlay, I'm taking Buckley to beat Stephen Thompson. Thompson was once a top welterweight, but unfortunately at age 41, he is no longer the same fighter. He still is a good striker with his karate style, but his takedown defense has been an issue, and Buckley's strength and wrestling should control this fight.
Thompson will have a hard time getting Buckley off of him, as I expect Buckley to use his wrestling to edge out a decision win here.
UFC 307 Bet: Ryan Spann & Joaquin Buckley parlay (+106)
UFC Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 307 card.
- Raquel Pennington (-175)
- Roman Dolidze (+124)
- Kayla Harrison by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission (+110)
- Ryan Spann & Joaquin Buckley parlay (+106)
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