This article is part of our UFC Picks series.
The UFC heads down to Perth, Western Australia on Saturday, February 11 (Sunday, February 12 in Australia) for UFC 284. In the main event, Islam Makhachev looks to defend his lightweight title for the first time against featherweight champ, Alexander Volkanovski.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Class: Featherweight
Yair Rodriguez (14-3) vs. Josh Emmett (18-2)
In the co-main event of UFC 284, Yair Rodriguez takes on Josh Emmett for the interim featherweight title, and I like Rodriguez in this matchup.
This is a great stylistic matchup for Rodriguez, as Emmett likes to strike as well, but the difference is that Emmett actually has a negative striking differential. Rodriguez lands 4.67 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.12, while Emmett lands 4.28 while absorbing 4.29.
On the feet, Rodriguez is the better technical striker and will land more shots, while Emmett will look for the power punch, but Rodriguez has proven to have a good chin. The way Emmett has a chance to win is by using his wrestling, but it's not a facet of his game he's employed of late. Since 2017 - which is a sample size of nine fights -- he has a total of two takedowns.
I like Rodriguez to land the better shots and edge out a decision here.
UFC 284 Best Bet: Yair Rodriguez (-165)
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Parker Porter (13-7) vs. Justin Tafa (5-3)
Parker Porter is the betting underdog against Justin Tafa, which I'm surprised by, as I like Porter to get the win.
The way to beat Porter is to catch him early -- as Chris Daukaus did -- but that fight was on short notice and Porter was out of shape. Since then, he has shown off an improved chin, while Tafa's power isn't as good as many think. The two UFC fighters he knocked out were Harry Hunsucker and Juan Adams -- two guys with concerning chins who are no longer with the promotion.
I expect Porter to use his wrestling and clinch work to grind on Tafa and try and gas him. On the feet, Porter also throws a ton of volume, while Tafa looks for the KO shot. The difference here will be the volume and wrestling, and I like Porter to take a decision.
UFC 284 Best Bet: Parker Porter (+105)
Weight Class: Light Heavyweight
Tyson Pedro (9-3) vs. Modestas Bukauskas (13-5)
The final prelim fight is a light heavyweight banger, as Tyson Pedro faces Modestas Bukauskas, who is returning to the UFC on short notice.
Pedro has proven to have a ton of power, and to get plus-money on him to win by KO/TKO is the way to go here. Bukauskas's chin is a concern, as we saw Jimmy Crute connect early and often on it when it was up in the air. If Pedro connects, it likely will be over, while Pedro also throws good leg kicks and body kicks, which also could result in a stoppage.
On short notice, I don't see Bukauskas being able to survive all 15 minutes against such a dangerous fighter, so I'll take a shot at Pedro to win by KO/TKO.
UFC 284 Best Bet: Tyson Pedro wins by KO/TKO (+180)
Weight Classes: Strawweight & Featherweight
Loma Lookboonmee (7-3) vs. Elise Reed (6-2)
Jack Jenkins (10-2) vs. Don Shainis (12-4)
For my parlay, I'm taking Loma Lookboonmee and Jack Jenkins to get their hands raised at UFC 284.
Lookboonmee gets a very favorable matchup, as she takes on Elise Reed. Reed may be 2-2 in the UFC, but I haven't been impressed with her. On the feet, this is a terrible matchup for Reed, who isn't the best striker. She lands just 2.77 significant strikes per minute while allowing 3.57, compared to Lookboonmee, who lands 4.21 while landing 2.56. I expect Lookboonmee's striking to be too much for Reed here, and the volume will be the difference.
The other leg is the very next fight, and I like Jenkins to make good of his UFC debut against Don Shainis. Jenkins looked impressive on the Contender Series, as he is very well-rounded with his striking and grappling. Shainis, meanwhile, lost in 30 seconds to Sodiq Yusuff in his debut. To get into the UFC, the level of competition was not there.
Jenkins will be better everywhere. I predict he will out-strike him before using his wrestling to get the fight to the mat and lock in a submission.
UFC 284 Best Bet: Loma Lookboonmee & Jack Jenkins parlay (-128)
UFC 284 Best Bets
Here is a recap of my best UFC picks for this weekend's UFC 284 event:
- Yair Rodriguez (-165)
- Parker Porter (+105)
- Tyson Pedro by KO/TKO (+180)
- Loma Lookboonmee & Jack Jenkins parlay (-128)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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