This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Sao Paulo card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Kaue Fernandes (8-1-0) v. Marc Diakiese (16-7-0)
Kaue Fernandes - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
Marc Diakiese - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Fernandes is making his UFC debut after running back-to-back first-round wins in the LFA promotion. He gets a winnable matchup against Diakiese, who is currently on a two-fight slide. I expect the fight to be close, but I like what I see from Fernandes. If he can avoid being taken down and controlled, I think he has the edge everywhere -- his kicks in particular.
UFC Sao Paulo Pick: Fernandes
Montserrat Ruiz (10-3-0) v. Eduarda Moura (9-0-0)
Montserrat Ruiz - Height: 5'0" - Reach: 61" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 10 wins
Eduarda Moura - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: There is not much to expect from the undersized Ruiz anymore. Her best bet is to keep the fight slow, which likely does not happen. Moura is an impressive fighter, and I expect her to wow in her debut. Look for an early finish and a solid score for DFS.
UFC Sao Paulo Pick: Moura
Angela Hill (15-13-0) v. Denise Gomes (8-2-0)
Angela Hill - Height: 5'3" - Reach: 64" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 5 finishes in 15 wins
Denise Gomes - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 6 finishes in 8 wins
DFS Perspective: Gomes has looked great on her two-fight win streak, finishing each opponent by knockout, with the most recent bout ending in just 20 seconds. She now runs into the division's gatekeeper in Hill, who is always solid. Both ladies are above-average strikers, and I expect this to be close. Hill should slow Gomes down, but I am unsure if she can out-strike her. Gomes should win a close decision.
UFC Sao Paulo Pick: Gomes
Vitor Petrino (9-0-0) v. Modestas Bukauskas (15-5-0)
Vitor Petrino - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 77" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Modestas Bukauskas - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 15 wins
DFS Perspective: Bukauskas will have a puncher's chance at a knockout, but that should be the only way he wins this. Petrino is better everywhere and will smash if he uses his wrestling. Petrino is one of my favorite plays on the slate for DFS.
UFC Sao Paulo Pick: Petrino
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos (24-7-0) v. Rinat Fakhretdinov (22-2-0)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 24 wins
Rinat Fakhretdinov - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 21 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an entertaining fight between two similarly-styled opponents. It is a big step up for Fakhredinov, but he should be ready for the challenge. I would give Zaleski a slight edge on the feet and Fakhredinov an edge on the mat. I expect it to be close, with Fakhredinov coming out on top.
UFC Sao Paulo Pick: Fakhredinov
Daniel Marcos (15-0-0) v. Victor Hugo (24-4-0)
Daniel Marcos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 15 wins
Victor Hugo - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 24 wins
DFS Perspective: Marcos is now 2-0 in the UFC and on a 15-fight winning streak, though his last win against Davey Grant was a debatable split decision. Hugo is making his UFC debut after a commendable submission win on Dana White's Contender Series. This fight is likely much closer than the odds indicate. Marcos is likelier to win a decision, while Hugo is likelier to win by an early finish. I like the newcomer to put on a show as roughly a (+200) underdog. He is better suited to be used in GPP contests, however.
UFC Sao Paulo Pick: Hugo
Ismael Bonfim (19-4-0) v. Vinc Pichel (14-3-0)
Ismael Bonfim - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
Vinc Pichel - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: Pichel is now 40, and I expect little to come from his offense if he cannot wrestle. Bonfim lost a tough one last time out, and I expect him to come out guns blazing to get back in the win column. If he wins a decision, it will likely be a lower score.
UFC Sao Paulo Pick: Bonfim
Rodolfo Vieira (9-2-0) v. Armen Petrosyan (8-2-0)
Rodolfo Vieira - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 73" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
Armen Petrosyan - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: This is one of the more interesting fights of the night. Vieira will have an immense edge on the mat, as Petrosyan has terrible takedown defense (36 percent). Assuming Vieira shoots more often than not, I would expect him to submit Petrosyan eventually. Petrosyan is the better striker in the matchup, so if he has significantly improved his takedown defense and can remain upright, he will likely strike his way to a decision. I am unwilling to bet on that, so I will ride with Vieira to dominate on the mat.
UFC Sao Paulo Pick: Vieira
Caio Borralho (14-1-0) v. Abusupiyan Magomedov (25-5-1)
Caio Borralho - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" - Southpaw
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
Abusupiyan Magomedov - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 78" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 25 wins
DFS Perspective: Magomedov is taking this fight on short notice, which is a significant concern considering he gassed after one round in his last fight against now-champion Sean Strickland in July. That round was exciting, but if he does not get the finish, he will be seeing stars once again. Borralho continues to surprise and shine, as he extended his record to 4-0 in the UFC with a beautiful rear-naked choke in his last fight. This is a must-have fight for DFS. I am on the side of Borralho until we see a better gas tank from Magomedov. However, given Magomedov's penchant for early finishes, he is a must for your player pool in mass-entry GPP contests.
UFC Sao Paulo Pick: Borralho
Rodrigo Nascimento (10-1-0) v. Don'Tale Mayes (10-5-0)
Rodrigo Nascimento - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 80" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Don'Tale Mayes - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 81" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 10 wins
DFS Perspective: Mayes is a bit of a boring fighter. He does not throw a lot of strikes nor does he wrestle or grapple much. He does have some power, but that is generally his only path to winning. Nascimento is considerably better overall and will hold a significant edge on the mat, where he should overwhelm Mayes early and likely submit him.
UFC Sao Paulo Pick: Nascimento
Gabriel Bonfim (15-0-0) v. Nicolas Dalby (22-4-1)
Gabriel Bonfim - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 15 wins
Nicolas Dalby - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: Dalby is a defensive fighter who struggles in the pocket with highly-aggressive fighters. Bonfim is precisely that, and he should overwhelm Dalby early. I expect Bonfim to continue his winning streak, making it 16 straight. He will be highly-owned as a huge favorite (-625) for this card.
UFC Sao Paulo Pick: Bonfim
Jailton Almeida (19-2-0) v. Derrick Lewis (27-11-0)
Jailton Almeida - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 19 finishes in 19 wins
Derrick Lewis - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 23 finishes in 27 wins
DFS Perspective: Lewis will always have that thunderous chance to record a knockout, but it's hard to see it happening here. Almeida will soon challenge for the belt, and rightly so. His game is nearly immaculate, and he can fight anywhere, especially on the mat. I expect early takedowns and either some nasty ground-and-pound or a submission to end this in the first.
UFC Sao Paulo Pick: Almeida
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC Sao Paulo DraftKings preview, or test your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
Kentucky officially launched sports betting on September 28. UFC fans in the Bluegrass State can stay up to date on the latest Kentucky sports betting promos at all Kentucky sportsbooks here at RotoWire. The BetMGM Kentucky bonus code gets new customers a generous welcome offer.
For bettors who prefer to deposit at a sportsbook via PayPal, RotoWire has an up-to-date list of all the top-rated PayPal betting sites in one place. We also list all major sportsbooks accepting credit card.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
