This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
Tafon Nchukwi (6-1-0) v. Azamat Murzakanov (10-0-0)
Fight Analysis: Murzakanov will be making his UFC debut after a highlight knockout on the Contender Series. He is a powerful striker who looks to outmuscle fighters and pound them into an early finish. Nchukwi has had three UFC fights, going 2-1, all three going to the judges' scorecards. He is a technical striker with good forward pressure, great takedowns and excellent finishing power.
DFS Perspective: These two guys have a combined 11 knockouts in 16 wins, and both look for the kill early. Nchukwi will have a grappling advantage if he chooses to take it there. He also will have about a 6-inch reach advantage and should look to keep the fight at range. Trading blows on the feet likely ends with a knockout for one of the two men.
My Pick: Murzakanov
Kris Moutinho (9-5-0) v. Guido Cannetti (8-6-0)
Fight Analysis: Moutinho gets his second UFC fight after getting decimated by volume against Sean O'Malley in his debut. He is a well-rounded fighter with decent volume, fast hands and good forward pressure. Cannetti is on a slide in the UFC, losing three straight and five of seven overall. He is a crafty all-around fighter with powerful hands, excellent movement and solid ground game.
DFS Perspective: I still do not think Moutinho is ready for the UFC. Cannetti has lost to good fighters and has more experience. I think he locks up an early submission if he takes it to the mat. If the fight stays on the feet, it is closer to a 50-50.
My Pick: Cannetti
Dalcha Langiambula (11-3-0) v. Cody Brundage (6-2-0)
Fight Analysis: Lungiambula evened out his UFC record at 2-2 after his most recent loss by unanimous decision. He is a low-volume striker with considerable power, excellent clinch work and great body lock takedowns. Brundage made his UFC debut last in his previous fight, losing unanimously after being controlled on the mat for most of the fight. He is a strong striker with an excellent wrestling background, solid forward pressure and fast hands.
DFS Perspective: Lungiambula is low-volume and gasses late in fights. His best shot is to land something huge and score an early knockout. However, Brundage should dominate with wrestling and exhaust Lungiambula to an early finish.
My Pick: Brundage
Sabina Mazo (9-3-0) v. Miranda Maverick (11-3-0)
Fight Analysis: Mazo has dropped two straight after winning three in a row, the most recent a submission loss early in the third round. She is a high-volume striker with quick hands, good movement and great forward pressure. After winning her first two UFC fights, Maverick has lost two in a row after losing unanimously last time out. She is a powerful striker with exceptional hands, excellent forward pressure and a dominant ground game.
DFS Perspective: Mazo has been entirely unimpressive in her two losses and showed significant weakness on the mat. I expect Maverick to come out fast and immediately take this to the mat, where a potential submission is in the cards.
My Pick: Maverick
Damon Jackson (19-4-1, 1NC) v. Kamuela Kirk (12-4-0)
Fight Analysis: Jackson is fresh off a dominant unanimous decision, moving his UFC record to 2-2-1. He is a decent striker with good footwork, quick hands, and excellent grappling and takedowns. Kirk earned a win in his UFC debut, winning unanimously after 15 minutes. He is a well-rounded fighter with crisp striking, outstanding grappling, and a penchant for finishing fights early.
DFS Perspective: This fight is fairly close. Jackson will have an advantage on the mat and Kirk on the feet. I think it comes down to who displays better control in grappling situations. The longer the fight stays on the feet, the more it favors Kirk.
My Pick: Kirk
Trevin Jones (13-7-0, 1NC) v. Javid Basharat (11-0-0)
Fight Analysis: Jones evened up his record at 1-1 after a tough submission loss late in the third round of his most recent bout. He is a technical striker with solid leg kicks, good movement and excellent counters. Basharat is making his UFC debut after a dominating effort in October on the Contender Series. He is an exceptionally well-rounded fighter with excellent hands, plodding forward pressure and above-average grappling.
DFS Perspective: Jones has not shown enough for me to think he can take this fight, even though it is the debut for Basharat. He has a great counter and could catch Basharat as he moves in, but I do not see it happening. Basharat should be better everywhere, and an early finish is likely.
My Pick: Basharat
JJ Aldrich (10-4-0) v. Gillian Robertson (10-6-0)
Fight Analysis: Aldrich is riding a two-fight win streak after winning unanimously in her most recent contest. She is a solid striker with decent volume, strong striking defense and great takedowns. In her most recent fight, Robertson found the neck for a rear-naked choke, moving to 6-4 in her UFC stint. She is known well for her grappling and submission game but offers little else in her fights.
DFS Perspective: Robertson is a one-trick pony, and you know what you are getting with her. If she can get the fight down, she can score another early submission. Aldrich can be tricky with takedown defense and has the grappling chops to avoid being submitted. She has the advantage on the feet with volume and has a good chance to score an upset.
My Pick: Aldrich
Matthew Semelsberger (9-3-0) v. AJ Fletcher (9-0-0)
Fight Analysis: Semelsberger has three wins in four fights in the UFC, two of them being flash finishes ending at 15 and 16 seconds. He is a technical striker with immense power, crisp jabs and nice sweeping kicks. Fletcher will be making his UFC debut after a nasty flying-knee knockout win on the Contender Series. He is a scary fighter with considerable power, excellent grappling, and a knack for finishing fights early.
DFS Perspective: Fletcher is a scary fighter and can finish the fight at any time. He will look to mix in takedowns but may have difficulty finding them here. Semelsberger will feature an 8-inch reach advantage and should have no issue keeping this on the feet and at range. Another early knockout is potentially in the cards for either fighter.
My Pick: Semelsberger
Alex Pereira (3-1-0) v. Bruno Silva (22-6-0)
Fight Analysis: Pereira found success in his UFC debut, earning a knockout early in the second round. He is a powerful kickboxer with improving footwork, great striking defense and a good fight IQ. Silva has been impressive in his three UFC fights, winning all of them by early knockout. He features crisp striking with considerable power, excellent pressure and a great complimenting ground game.
DFS Perspective: The stand-up game is pretty even between these two. The difference should come on the mat if Silva can find takedowns. If that's the case, he should be able to control Pereira and potentially find strong ground-and-pound for an early finish.
My Pick: Silva
Drew Dober (23-11-0, 1NC) v. Terrance McKinney (11-3-0)
Fight Analysis: Dober comes in riding a two-fight losing streak, the most recent by unanimous decision after 15 minutes. He is a technical striker with significant power, excellent footwork and fast hands. Just a couple of weeks ago, McKinney earned an impressive first-round submission win and is now taking this fight on short notice. He is a phenomenal athlete and all-around good fighter with exciting power and elite takedowns. He is dangerous anywhere the fight goes.
DFS Perspective: Short notice or not, I will continue to ride McKinney. He is a freak athlete with a great future ahead of him. As long as he avoids the tremendous power of Dober, he wins this fight. Another early finish could be ahead of him, especially if he takes this to the mat early.
My Pick: McKinney
Khalil Rountree Jr. (10-5-0, 1NC) v. Karl Roberson (9-4-0)
Fight Analysis: Rountree got back in the win column with a nasty kick to the knee halfway through the second round in his most recent contest. He is a low-volume power striker with good forward pressure, strong kicks and great cardio. Roberson has dropped two fights in a row, the most recent by a first-round ankle lock. He is a decent technical striker with good range, great footwork and excellent grappling.
DFS Perspective: Both guys have a path to victory. Rountree will want this to stay on the feet where he can take over with leg kicks and power. Roberson will need to get this fight to the mat, where he can control from a mount position. This fight is a pick-em and comes down to who you like more.
My Pick: Roberson
Sodiq Yusuff (11-2-0) v. Alex Caceres (19-12-0, 1NC)
Fight Analysis: Yusuff suffered his first UFC loss last time out, bringing his four-fight win streak to a screeching halt. However, he is a high-volume striker with excellent forward pressure, lightning-quick hands and solid defense. Caceres is climbing his way back up the rankings, earning a fifth consecutive win in his previous outing.
DFS Perspective: Caceres keeps proving to everyone he still has it but may run into a buzzsaw here. He has the advantage on the mat but may have problems getting it there against the pressuring Yusuff. Yusuff will want to keep the gas pedal down, pressuring Caceras constantly and keeping him on his back foot, and potentially finding an early knockout.
My Pick: Yusuff
Marlon Moraes (23-9-1) v. Yadong Song (17-5-1, 1NC)
Fight Analysis: Moraes took a third consecutive loss last time out, getting knocked out near the end of the second round. However, he is a veteran in the UFC with a fantastic all-around game, immense power, solid grappling and high fight IQ. Song finished his opponent early in the second round in his most recent contest, bringing his UFC record to a solid 7-1-1. He is a well-rounded fighter with high-volume striking, considerable power, elite cardio and decent grappling.
DFS Perspective: Moraes may have run out of his magic, as the tremendous amount of damage seems to be getting to him. He still has huge power and can end a fight at any time, but it is getting hard watching him getting his face kicked in. Yadong is the younger, less-experienced fighter but offers all sorts of power that could end Moraes' night early again. That said, there is definitely value on Moraes scoring an early finish here.
My Pick: Song
Thiago Santos (22-9-0) v. Magomed Ankalaev (16-1-0)
Fight Analysis: Santos potentially saved his UFC career in his last fight, winning unanimously after 25 minutes. He is a veteran fighter with immense power, strong leg kicks, and good forward pressure. On the other hand, Ankalaev has been nothing short of impressive on his now even fight win streak, most recently taking a unanimous decision in October. He is a well-rounded fighter with huge power, excellent grappling, and elite defense.
DFS Perspective: Santos has not been the same since he returned from his knee injury. He has no pop, lost his explosiveness and seems to be on his way out. Ankalaev is better everywhere at this point and should end this fight early.
My Pick: Ankalaev
FANDUEL SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6pts
Takedown = 6pts
Takedown Defense = 3pts
Knockdown = 12pts
Submission Attempt = 5pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100pts
2nd Round Win = 75pts
3rd Round Win = 50pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25pts
Decision Win = 20pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are "Distance Strike" or "Clinch/Ground Strikes" that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial amount of time.
DRAFTKINGS SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
