This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
The top MMA betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC 283 card are up and courtesy of Drake Burden, who breaks down betting and lineup strategy, as well as offers predictions for the entire event.
Daniel Marcos (13-0-0) v. Saimon Oliveira (18-4-0)
Saimon Oliveira - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 18 wins
Daniel Marcos - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Traditional striker vs. grappler match. Oliveira will have a significant edge on the mat and would likely record a submission if he can get it there. Marcos is making his debut and will hold the advantage on the feet. This fight could be slower-paced, leading to a low-scoring decision. If Oliveira is unable to get a takedown, Marcos should take this fight.
UFC 283 Pick: Oliveira
Luan Lacerda (12-1-0) v. Cody Stamann (20-5-1)
Luan Lacerda - Height: 5'7" - Reach: N/A - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 12 wins
Cody Stamann - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 64" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 9 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Lacerda is a one-stop shop right now, where only his grappling is dangerous. He could find a choke at any time during the fight, but I do not think he will get many opportunities to do so, as Stamann is a phenomenal wrestler. Stamann should control where the fight goes and should have a massive edge on the feet. An early knockout is not out of the question for him.
UFC 283 Pick: Stamann
Josiane Nunes (9-1-0) v. Zarah Fairn (6-4-0)
Josiane Nunes - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 67" - Southpaw
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 9 wins
Zarah Fairn - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 4 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: The odds for this fight should be a little closer than they are. Nunes is rightfully favored and should win by a volume decision, but Fairn will have the size advantage and could turn this into a slow-paced fight by keeping at range for 15 minutes. I do not see a high score coming out of this fight unless Nunes knocks her out early.
UFC 283 Pick: Nunes
Warlley Alves (14-5-0) v. Nicolas Dalby (20-4-1)
Warlley Alves - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 14 wins
Nicolas Dalby - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 10 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: Dalby thrives in fights where he can fight from a distance and use his defensive skills to avoid making mistakes. Alves likes to work in the pocket and will have an edge in power. If the fight stays on the feet, I can see Dalby winning a slog of a decision or Alves recording a knockout. If Alves uses his wrestling and takes this to the mat, he will win comfortably.
UFC 283 Pick: Alves
Terrance McKinney (13-4-0) v. Ismael Bonfim (18-3-0)
Ismael Bonfim - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 18 wins
Terrance McKinney - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: This has FOTN written all over it. Both guys are explosive, and there has not been a fight that McKinney has been a part of that has been boring. Bonfim is an excellent prospect and has all the tools to win this fight, and should have the edge on the feet. McKinney is explosive and should look to use his wrestling early. This fight is close, and the winner likely crushes value.
UFC 283 Pick: Bonfim
Jailton Almeida (17-2-0) v. Shamil Abdurakhimov (20-7-0)
Shamil Abdurakhimov - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plue wrestling
~ 13 finishes in 20 wins
Jailton Almeida - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 79" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Not much to be said here. Abdurakhiov is 41, has been knocked out in three consecutive fights, and likely does not offer much of a fight in this one. Almeida will be the aggressor and the better fighter everywhere this goes.
UFC 283 Pick: Almeida
Gabriel Bonfim (13-0-0) v. Mounir Lazzez (11-2-0)
Gabriel Bonfim - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 72" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 13 wins
Mounir Lazzez - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 8 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: This is another fight that sets up to be a banger and potential FOTN. The other Bonfim brother, Gabriel, is another electric fighter making his debut and is well-rounded and explosive. Lazzez is a high-volume striker and will have the advantage in that regard. However, his best bet to win this fight will be to keep it at range and counter. Bonfim will likely be the aggressor, and I expect him to control the fight and take the win in his debut.
UFC 283 Pick: Bonfim
Thiago Moises (16-6-0) v. Melquizael Costa (19-5-0)
Thiago Moises - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 70" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Low wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 16 wins
Melquizael Costa - Height: 5'10" - Reach: N/A – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 13 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Another striker vs. grappler type of fight. Moises is a masterful BJJ practitioner; if this fight hits the mat, it will likely be over shortly after. Costa will have the edge on the feet and should look to keep it upright, where he could win a decision or score a knockout. Moises has fought better competition and should be up for the challenge.
UFC 283 Pick: Moises
Gregory Rodrigues (13-4-0) v. Brunno Ferreira (9-0-0)
Gregory Rodrigues - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" - Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 13 wins
Brunno Ferreira - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: Ferreira is another fighter making his UFC debut and is about as good a prospect as you can find. His game is solid everywhere, and he could climb the rankings quickly. Rodrigues is a tall ask for the debutant, and he is rightfully favored. I expect this fight to be close, with someone getting finished early. Rodrigues is the play, but I would not be surprised if Ferreira pulls it off.
UFC 283 Pick: Rodrigues
Mauricio Rua (27-13-1) v. Ihor Potieria (18-3-0)
Mauricio Rua - Height: 6'1" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling
~ 22 finishes in 27 wins
Ihor Potieria - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 75" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 14 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: As much as everyone would love to see Rua go out with a bang, it isn't easy to see how it happens. He has little left to offer in the ring, and that is a big reason he is retiring after this fight. Potieria is a wild man in the cage, and I expect him to find an early knockout for his first UFC win.
UFC 283 Pick: Potieria
Paul Craig (16-5-1) v. Johnny Walker (19-7-0)
Paul Craig - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 16 wins
Johnny Walker - Height: 6'6" - Reach: 82" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus grappling
~ 18 finishes in 19 wins
DFS Perspective: Craig publically said he wanted to show off his power, but that would be a big mistake, as Walker is the far better striker with more range. If Walker keeps the fight upright, he should win by knockout, potentially in the first round. Craig's best path to winning comes via submission, and he is always a threat to get it. Either way, I think this fight ends early, and anything in the first round would smash value.
UFC 283 Pick: Walker
Jessica Andrade (23-9-0) v. Lauren Murphy (16-5-0)
Lauren Murphy - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 67" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 16 wins
Jessica Andrade - Height: 5'1" - Reach: 62" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 23 wins
DFS Perspective: Murphy will need to find an early takedown and keep Andrade pinned to the mat to have a chance in this one. I expect Andrade to come out hot, as she has been, and completely smash Murphy. An early knockout is likely, but I would not be surprised if she recorded another submission.
UFC 283 Pick: Andrade
Gilbert Burns (20-5-0) v. Neil Magny (27-9-0)
Gilbert Burns - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 20 wins
Neil Magny - Height: 6'3" - Reach: 80" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 27 wins
DFS Perspective: Magny's best path to victory would be to keep this fight on the feet and at range. Burns showed off excellent striking in his last fight and should have no problem getting into the pocket. However, I expect this fight to primarily occur on the mat, with Burns dominating control or potentially finding a submission.
UFC 283 Pick: Burns
Deiveson Figueiredo (21-2-1) v. Brandon Moreno (20-6-2)
Deiveson Figueiredo - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 21 wins
Brandon Moreno - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 20 wins
DFS Perspective: This will be the fourth fight between the top-ranked fighters, and I expect it to be as close as the others. Figueiredo will have the advantage on the feet with power, and Moreno will have the edge in wrestling and volume. I like Figueiredo to hit the harder shots and retain the belt. Keep an eye on weigh-ins before making a decision.
UFC 283 Pick: Figueiredo
Glover Teixeira (33-8-0) v. Jamahal Hill (11-1-0)
Glover Teixeira - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 76" - Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 28 finishes in 33 wins
Jamahal Hill - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 79" – Southpaw
~ Hill volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 11 wins
DFS Perspective: The battle for the light heavyweight belt comes down to the old dog and the rising stud. Hill has the touch of death and could end the fight at any time with a single shot. He could also pile up volume and win a decision over 25 minutes. Teixeira will have an edge in fight IQ and on the mat. If he can find takedowns early, he could keep control of Hill for long periods and rack up that control time. I expect Teixeira's defense and wrestling to carry him to the win.
UFC 283 Pick: Teixeira
For more MMA DFS-specific content, check out our UFC 283 DraftKings preview, or play around with your favorite combinations of fighters on our DFS MMA Lineup Optimizer.
FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 pts.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
