This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 89 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $350K UFC Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Women's Flyweight
Amanda Ribas (12-4-0) v. Rose Namajunas (12-6-0)
DK Salaries: Ribas ($7,000), Namajunas ($9,200)
Vegas Odds: Ribas (+180), Namajunas (-220)
Rose debuted at flyweight last December and looked better than I expected in a unanimous decision loss to a legitimate contender in Manon Fiorot. The striking numbers were nearly identical, with Fiorot leading 62-60 in that area. Namajunas failed on all six of her takedown attempts, but her biggest problem was the fact she wasn't active enough. She attempted 75 less total strikes than Fiorot (225-150), a death sentence in a bout that could go either way.
Ribas has now alternated wins and losses in her past seven fights. She continues to bounce between weight classes (which I don't like), while typically handling lower-end opposition and struggling against better opponents. Her four wins during that stretch have come over Luana Pinheiro, Viviane Araujo, Virna Jandiroba and Paige VanZant, while the three losses were to Maycee Barber, Katlyn Cerminara, and Marina Rodriguez. Namajunas is certainly closer to that last group than the first. I expect Ribas to hover around the .500 mark moving forward.
Few female fighters on the roster are as reckless on the feet as Ribas. Sure, she's tough as nails, but she's willing to eat two or three punches to land one of her own. She becomes overaggressive when she's getting touched up, and while I'm still not fully on board with Namajunas' striking game, there will definitely be openings for her to beat Ribas up on the feet. In fact, Rose is two inches taller, while Amanda has a one-inch reach edge.
Rose is deceptively strong for her size, but I feel as if she's going to struggle with the physicality of 125 pounds. The good news for her is that she's going up against an opponent in Ribas that is a natural strawweight and almost the exact same size she is.
Namajunas has always had excellent cardio and a 25-minute fight, if it goes that long, should be a cake walk for her.
It feels as if the UFC has done Rose a favor with this fight. She gets a five-round main event, which plays to her advantage, while also getting an opponent her size who she should, at least on paper, be able to best most anywhere.
Ribas gives a good accounting of herself more often than not, and I wouldn't be surprised if she hangs around for a while here, but I think this is Rose's fight to lose, even if I'm still not optimistic about her long-term staying power at flyweight. I could see Namajunas landing a ton of volume on the feet, but her DK salary is higher than I preferred/expected, so I'm not sure how much value is there.
THE PICK: Namajunas
Middleweight
Edmen Shahbazyan (12-4-0) v. AJ Dobson (7-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Shahbazyan ($9,100), Dobson ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Shahbazyan (-205), Dobson (+175)
In the latest of a long line of withdrawals for this event, Dobson is in for Dusko Todorovic, who suffered a serious knee injury. At least he's had about a month to prepare.
Once viewed as one of the brightest prospects in the sport, the UFC pushed Shahbazyan way too quickly and now everyone involved is paying for it. Edmen won his first four bouts with the company against middling competition. Then, for some reason, he was tasked with facing Derek Brunson, Jack Hermansson, Nassourdine Imavov, Dalcha Lungiambula, and Anthony Hernandez in his next five fights. One of those names is not like the others and that's the only one in the stretch Shahbazyan managed to win. Oh, three of those four losses came via knockout. He could be released if he can't get past Dobson.
Dobson scored a first-round submission win on Dana White's Contender Series back in September 2021. He officially joined the UFC roster about five months later and was obliterated by Jacob Malkoun and Armen Petrosyan, both good opponents, in his first two fights. He likely saved his job with a unanimous decision win over Tafon Nchukwu last August.
So, where does that leave us? It leaves us with two guys that never really had a chance to find their footing because they were tasked with facing guys they shouldn't have been in there against.
The advanced numbers here are eerily similar. Both guys get hit too much on the feet and displayed poor striking defense. Shahbazyan in particular has massive durability issues. You watch him fight and you see a guy that won early in his career based on pure talent alone and never had to learn the finer points of MMA. He's still just 26, so I won't rule out some improvement moving forward, but I'm not optimistic.
It definitely helps Dobson's cause that he can match the size of Shahbazyan. He's giving up one inch in height, but enters with a one-inch edge in reach. He's also the more durable man, having never been knocked out.
Ultimately, there's just too much value on Dobson's side. I'm not high on either man, but when one is considerably cheaper and the more expensive guy has durability issues, my mind is made up.
THE PICK: Dobson
Featherweight
Billy Quarantillo (18-5-0) v. Youssef Zalal (10-5-1)
DK Salaries: Quarantillo ($8,600), Zalal ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Quarantillo (-165), Zalal (+140)
Quarantillo was due to face Gabriel Miranda in this fight before the latter withdrew a little over a week ago and Zalal agreed to step in.
Quarantillo has put forth some nice performances during his time with the UFC, but he's struggled with consistency. Billy Q has alternated wins and losses in his past seven bouts and I hold out little hope for that to change moving forward. That said, Quarantillo is tough and has displayed the ability to keep a high pace and throw a ridiculous amount of volume on the feet, so he's going to be a problem for a fair share of the featherweights on the roster.
It's a no-brainer decision for Zalal to accept this fight given his current circumstances. Still just 27 years of age Youssef won his first two UFC bouts back in mid-2020 before going winless in four fights (0-3-1) and being released by the company. The first of those three defeats was via unanimous decision to current UFC Featherweight Champion Ilia Topuria in what was his first fight with the company. Since leaving, Zalal has one three straight fights via stoppage in the "Sparta Combat League"
Any prolonged striking battle is going to favor Quarantillo in a major way. He's landed at least 84 significant strikes in five of his past six bouts, and the one in which he failed to reach that number was a first-round knockout loss to Edson Barboza. Zalal, on the other hand, offers next to nothing on the feet because he's always grappling. His 2.75 significant strikes landed per minute and his 1.75 absorbed per minute is a pure indication Youssef wants this thing on the ground.
Zalal is a pure grappler despite having four career wins via knockout. He's averaging 2.14 takedowns per 15 minutes and has six career wins via submission. Billy's grappling is up and down. We've seen fights in which he uses his wrestling game to his advantage and others in which he struggles in that area. He gave up three takedowns and 6:10 worth of control time to Damon Jackson in his most recent fight last August and still won via unanimous decision. It's clear as day he doesn't want to be rolling around with Zalal on the mat.
Ultimately, however, there's a reason Zalal was released from the UFC in the first place. He rarely was overwhelmed inside the octagon, heck, he went the full 15 against Topuria, but he's far from an explosive athlete and is unable to make up ground if he falls behind early. Quarantillo is going to have a major edge in terms of physicality and my guess is that's more than enough to push him across the finish line.
THE PICK: Quarantillo
Featherweight
Ricardo Ramos (16-5-0) v. Julian Erosa (28-12-0)
DK Salaries: Ramos ($8,900), Erosa ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Ramos (-175), Erosa (+145)
I've always had time for Ramos despite inconsistent results. His 6-4 UFC record is middling, at best, but he's lost to names such as Charles Jourdain, Lerone Murphy, and Said Nurmagomedov. He certainly hasn't been fighting scrubs. His durability is a major issue, but I see a guy that gives an honest effort each and every time out.
Erosa, set to turn 35 at the end of July, appears to be just about out of time. He's fresh off back-to-back knockout losses to Fernando Padilla and Alex Caceres. He somehow won five of six prior to this recent skid, including stoppage wins over Jourdain, Nate Landwehr, and Sean Woodson. The fact Erosa is fighting in the UFC once again in 2024 is nothing short of miraculous considering he was released from the company following a three-fight losing streak from November 2018 to May 2019.
This will be Erosa's 40th professional fight. He's a battle-tested veteran who is willing to step into the octagon against anyone, at any time, but his physical gifts have always been quite limited. He's a guy who gets by on grit and determination and those are typically the fighters that age the poorest. "Juicy J" does not appear to be an exception to that general rule.
Ramos is going to have to find a way to negate a four-inch height edge for Erosa. We were just talking about a pair of massive 145-pounders in Quarantillo and Miranda. Well, Erosa is 6-foot-1. He theoretically has the frame to clip his opposition at distance consistently, but his brawling tendencies negate that. Erosa lands 6.22 signifciant strikes per minute, while absorbing 6.35 per minute. You can count on one hand the number of fighters that are able to consistently win employing a style such as that.
Ramos is a good wrestler. His 2.79 takedowns per 15 minutes is a strong number, but I'm more impressed by his 59 percent takedown accuracy. That means he's timing his shots well.
He should be able to land plenty of volume on the feet and I could see him potentially finishing a close round with a takedown to seal the deal. Ramos should be able to win this fight. I'll be highly concerned if he doesn't.
THE PICK: Ramos
Other Bouts
Heavyweight
Karl Williams (9-1-0) v. Justin Tafa (7-3-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Williams ($9,300), Tafa ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Williams (-180), Tafa (+150)
THE PICK: Williams
Bantamweight
Payton Talbott (7-0-0) v. Cameron Saaiman (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Talbott ($8,300), Saaiman ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Talbott (-165), Saaiman (+140)
THE PICK: Talbott
Featherweight
Fernando Padilla (15-5-0) v. Luis Pajuelo (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Padilla ($8,700), Pajuelo ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Padilla (-165), Pajuelo (+135)
THE PICK: Padilla
Lightweight
Kurt Holobaugh (21-7-0, 1NC) v. Trey Ogden (16-6-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Holobaugh ($7,700), Ogden ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Holobaugh (+130), Ogden (-150)
THE PICK: Odgen
Bantamweight
Miles Johns (13-2-0, 1NC) v. Cody Gibson (20-9-0)
DK Salaries: Johns ($8,200), Gibson ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Johns (-150), Gibson (+125)
THE PICK: Johnson
Featherweight
Jarno Errens (13-5-1) v. Steven Nguyen (9-1-0)
DK Salaries: Errens ($6,800), Nguyen ($9,400)
Vegas Odds: Errens (+160), Nguyen (-195)
THE PICK: Nguyen
Women's Bantamweight
Montserrat Rendon (6-0-0) v. Darya Zheleznyakova (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Rendon ($7,400), Zheleznykova ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Rendon (+145), Zheleznykova (-175)
THE PICK: Zheleznykova
Flyweight
Igor da Silva (8-0-0) v. Andre Lima (7-0-0)
DK Salaries: Da Silva ($7,200), Lima ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Da Silva (+150), Lima (-180)
THE PICK: Lima
Heavyweight
Mohammed Usman (11-2-0) v. Michael Parkin (8-0-0)
DK Salaries: Usman ($7,800), Parkin ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Usman (+125), Parkin (-150)
THE PICK: Usman
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 89 with more MMA betting content.
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DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
