This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
UFC Vegas 85 takes place Saturday, and Jon Litterine is back to break down the top fights, plus offer his DFS picks and predictions for the key matchups on the card.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $300k UFC 2024 Opening Throwdown with $100k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring rules are noted at the bottom of the column. Let's get to the action...
Main Event - Middleweight
Roman Dolidze (12-2-0) v. Nassourdine Imavov (12-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Dolidze ($7,600), Imavov ($8,600)
Vegas Odds: Dolidze (+140), Imavov (-165)
Dolidze hasn't fought since last March -- a unanimous decision defeat to Marvin Vettori -- through no fault of his own. He had fights scheduled against both Derek Brunson and Jared Cannonier in the second half of 2023, but both fell apart due to issues with his opposition. Roman had won three in a row prior to the Vettori setback, all via knockout. He earned a $50,000 Performance of the Night bonus for each of the victories.
Imavov had an adventure-filled 2023. He dropped a unanimous decision to current UFC Middleweight Champion Sean Strickland last January and fought Chris Curtis to a no contest following an accidental clash of heads in June. A scheduled fight against Ikram Aliskerov in October was cancelled when Imavov was forced to withdraw due to visa issues.
Dolidze is going to have the edge in terms of pure power, but Imavov is a much more technical striker. I would strongly favor the latter in a blow-for-blow kickboxing match. Neither man has been knocked out in their professional careers, so even though both men have racked up a ton of finishes, it seems quite likely this fight either goes the distance, or at least sees the championship rounds.
Neither man will have an edge in terms of size. Imavov is an inch taller, while Dolidze has an inch edge in terms of reach.
Both men can wrestle in a pinch, with Roman averaging 1.72 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Imavov is at 1.09 per 15 minutes. The most notable number here is Dolidze's woeful 33 percent takedown defense. Vettori didn't attempt a single takedown in their fight, which was surprising, but he was easily winning the striking exchanges between the two. If Imavov has more in his bag in terms of offensive wrestling, now is the time to show it.
This seems to come down to whether you prefer the physicality of Dolidze or the technical striking skill of Imavov. Maybe I would feel differently if Nassourdine had durability issues, but he doesn't. In a fight scheduled for five rounds, I think he's able to wear Roman down with volume. Imavov looks like a pretty strong DK play given his salary.
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Imavov
Co-Main Event - Lightweight
Renato Moicano (17-5-1) v. Drew Dober (27-12-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Moicano ($8,400), Dober ($7,800)
Vegas Odds: Moicano (-155), Dober (+130)
Moicano's 4-4 record in his past eight fights is underwhelming, but it's important to note those four defeats came against Rafael dos Anjos, Rafael Fiziev, The Korean Zombie and Jose Aldo. The Zombie and Aldo fights took place back in early-to-mid 2019 when both had plenty of gas left in the tank. Moicano has defeated the likes of Calvin Kattar, Cub Swanso, and Jeremy Stephens, so he has some notable wins on his resume. At 5-foot-11, he's better suited for lightweight than featherweight. He's a top-10-15 guy at this stage but is still looking for a career-defining win.
Dober has won three of his last four, with all four fights ending via knockout. He turned 35 years of age this past October, and he struggles to generate secondary forms of offense, but Drew keeps himself in terrific shape, and he's an excellent, technical striker. He's prone to getting dragged into a brawl here and there, which could most definitely be an issue against Moicano, but he's a perfectly competent lightweight.
At 5-foot-8 and with a 70-inch reach, Dober is by no means small for 155 pounds, but he's giving up three inches in height and two inches in reach to Moicano. The Brazilian is most definitely the better grappler, and I'm curious if the size edge will serve to keep Dober at distance. Remember, Moicano doesn't have a knockout victory in his pro career. His inability to threaten his opposition on the feet has been a major issue. I expect Drew to try to push the pace and get inside.
Dober's takedown defense numbers are tricky because a good number of his fights have ended quickly. He hasn't been taken down in any of his past three fights but gave up 14 takedowns in his prior five bouts. Overall, his 56 percent takedown defense is woeful, and I expect Moicano, who is averaging 1.66 takedowns per 15 minutes, to test it frequently.
There's clearly a path to victory for Dober because the power is legitimate and Moicano has minor durability concerns, but the latter has a big edge in terms of grappling and a real size edge. That's enough to swing me in his direction in what projects to be a close fight.
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Moicano
Welterweight
Randy Brown (17-5-0) v. Muslim Salikhov (19-4-0)
DK Salaries: Brown ($9,100), Salikhov ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Brown (-245), Salikhov (+200)
These two were scheduled to fight at UFC 296 last December before a Brown illness forced its cancellation the day before the event.
I've always been quite high on Brown. He's 5-1 in his past six and 7-2 in his past nine, with the two setbacks in that span coming against quality competition in Jack Della Maddalena and Vicente Luque. Randy has a competent, well-rounded skill set, and at 6-foot-3, he's massive for the welterweight division. I think he's a fringe top-15 guy at 170 pounds.
Salikhov needs a victory in the worst way, having alternated wins and losses in his past three bouts. The defeats were a knockout to Li Jingliang (understandable) and a lopsided unanimous decision against Nicolas Dalby. The win was a knockout over Andre Fialho, which means literally nothing considering Fialho has since been released from the UFC after being knocked out in his final four bouts with the company.
Both of these two are getting up there in age, but Brown, who will be 34 years of age in July, is a spring chicken compared to Muslim, who will be 41 in June.
Salikhov has 13 career wins via knockout and had nearly 200 pro fights in his kickboxing career, but he's been a low-volume striker over the course of his UFC run. He lands just 3.37 significant strikes per minute and has connected on no more than 63 significant strikes in any one bout. That's not going to get the job done.
Brown is tough and physical at the point of attack. He's also entering with an overwhelming size edge. Randy is four inches taller and has an insane eight-inch reach advantage. Salikhov can mix in a takedown here and there (1.31 per 15 minutes), but he's certainly not a grappler, and I'm not sure how he's going to be able to consistently get inside against Brown given the size disadvantage.
This looks like a good spot for "Rude Boy" to continue his winning ways, making it an easy pick.
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Brown
Women's Flyweight
Viviane Araujo (12-5-0) v. Natalia Silva (16-5-1)
DK Salaries: Araujo ($6,700), Silva ($9,500)
Vegas Odds: Araujo (+275), Silva (-345)
Araujo has had all sorts of difficulty of late and was probably looking at a release had she lost to Jennifer Maia in her most recent fight last October, but Vivi responded with one of her better performances to date, landing a couple takedowns and racking up 7:03 worth of control time in taking a 29-28 decision on all three scorecards. The win aside, Araujo is in a tough spot moving forward. She has displayed no stopping power in her hands during her UFC run, and her athleticism is set to wane given she turned 37 years of age in late November.
Silva is in a much better position, entering having won each of her first four UFC bouts, and ten in a row overall. The sample size is small, but the early returns have been extremely impressive. Silva looks like a highly-competent striker with a solid ground game. She certainly hasn't faced anywhere near the competition Araujo has, but Natalia does have some reasonable wins over the likes of Andrea Lee and Jasmine Jasudavicius.
This has all the makings of an easy pick.
For starters, Silva is more than a decade younger. The win rate for the younger fighter in those type of instances is significant.
She clearly has the better all-around arsenal and appears to be the much better athlete.
Araujo's path to victory is similar to the Rodriguez fight. Meaning, it's quite limited. Close the distance, limit Silva's opportunities to land damaging blows and hope to pin her opponent to the cage or fence for long stretches at a time in hopes of winning a decision.
Could it happen? Sure, but I'd bet against it.
If Silva has the long-term potential many think, she should win this fight without issue. The fact Araujo doesn't have a knockout win in 4.5 years only serves to strengthen Silva's position.
Now, that doesn't mean I'm rushing to dump $9,500 of my budget on Silva. She's the most expensive fighter on the card by a wide margin. Tread carefully, even though the result seems like a forgone conclusion.
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Silva
Other Bouts
Middleweight
Aliaskhab Khizriev (14-0-0) v. Makhmud Muradov (26-8-0)
DK Salaries: Khizriev ($8,800), Muradov ($7,400)
Vegas Odds: Khizriev (-180), Muradov (+150)
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Khizriev
Welterweight
Gilbert Urbina (7-3-0) v. Charlie Radtke (8-3-0)
DK Salaries: Urbina ($9,000), Radtke ($7,200)
Vegas Odds: Urbina (-205), Radtke (+170)
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Urbina
Women's Strawweight
Molly McCann (13-6-0) v. Diana Belbita (15-8-0)
DK Salaries: McCann ($9,300), Belbita ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: McCann (-290), Belbita (+235)
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Belbita
Flyweight
Azat Maksum (17-0-0) v. Charles Johnson (13-6-0)
DK Salaries: Maksum ($8,900), Johnson ($7,300)
Vegas Odds: Maksum (-200), Johnson (+165)
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Maksum
Welterweight
Themba Gorimbo (11-4-0) v. Pete Rodriguez (5-1-0)
DK Salaries: Gorimbo ($9,2,00), Rodriguez ($7,000)
Vegas Odds: Gorimbo (-245), Rodriguez (+200)
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Gorimbo
Featherweight
Jeong Yeong Lee (10-1-0) v. Blake Bilder (8-1-1)
DK Salaries: Lee ($8,300), Bilder ($7,900)
Vegas Odds: Lee (-150), Bilder (+125)
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Bilder
Women's Flyweight
Luana Carolina (9-4-0) v. Julija Stoliarenko (11-8-2)
DK Salaries: Carolina ($8,000), Stoliarenko ($8,200)
Vegas Odds: Carolina (+115), Stoliarenko (-135)
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Carolina
Lightweight
Landon Quinones (7-2-1) v. Marquel Mederos (8-1-0)
DK Salaries: Quinones ($7,700), Mederos ($8,500)
Vegas Odds: Quinones (+125), Mederos (-150)
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Mederos
Heavyweight
Thomas Petersen (8-1-0) v. Jamal Pogues (10-4-0)
DK Salaries: Petersen ($8,700), Pogues ($7,500)
Vegas Odds: Petersen (-165), Pogues (+140)
UFC VEGAS 85 PICK: Pogues
Note: All odds accurate as of time of posting, and taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook, if available, before searching elsewhere. Stay up to date for UFC Vegas 85 with more MMA betting content.
DraftKings MMA Scoring
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
