This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
Bad blood between a fan-favorite headline and notorious heel will headline UFC 272 in Las Vegas on Saturday night.
If you're hoping to turn the event into an opportunity to build your DFS bankroll, DraftKings.com has you covered with a full slate of contests, including a $700k UFC 272 Special with $150k to first place. Players get a $50,000 budget to select six fighters, and the scoring is distributed as follows:
Note: Scoring has been updated as of early-2021! Please review the scoring changes below.
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 PTS
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.5 PTS
Control Time: +0.03 PTS/SECOND
Takedown (TD): +5 PTS
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 PTS
Knockdown (KD): +10 PTS
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 PTS
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 PTS
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 PTS
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 PTS
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 PTS
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 PTS
Quick Win Bonus: +25 PTS
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any Distance Strike or Clinch/Ground Strikes that are considered "Power Strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and will be worth a total of 0.4 Pts
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable amount of time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
Main Event - Welterweight
Colby Covington (16-3-0) v. Jorge Masvidal (35-15-0)
DK Salaries: Covington ($9,400), Masvidal ($6,800)
Vegas Odds: Covington (-320), Masvidal (+250)
Odds to Finish: +110
The UFC originally had bantamweight and featherweight title fights scheduled for this event, but both either needed to be push back or fell apart altogether, and thus a grudge match between Covington and Masvidal will be the headliner here.
Covington is coming off his second loss to UFC Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman in his past three bouts. Colby was competitive in stretches of both fights, but there still appeared to be a gap between he and the best 170-pounder in the world. That puts Covington in a tough spot moving forward. There's a real chance he is the second best welterweight in the world, and he hasn't lost anyone other than Usman since December 2015, but no one will be calling for a third fight between the two any time soon. Effectively, Covington is better off taking winnable fights such as this one and cashing a nice paycheck in the process.
Like Colby, Masvidal has lost twice to Usman and his two defeats have come in his past two bouts. Unlike the Covington fights, neither of Jorge's title opportunities made much sense, and the end result of those bouts was as expected. Masvidal remains extremely popular with casual fans at age 37, but this is a guy whose record is exactly .500 (6-6) in his last dozen bouts dating back to November 2015. Yes, Jorge is a talented fighter, but I truly believe he is more "name" than "game" in this latter stage of his career.
Much like the two Usman fights, this bout looks like a disaster for Masvidal from a stylistic standpoint. Yes, he defends the takedown at a strong 75 percent clip, but Colby is a brilliant wrestler who averages 4.10 takedowns per 15 minutes, and I think Jorge is at real risk of being controlled on the mat for a good portion of this fight.
In the stand-up game, Covington has always had an excellent chin, while Masvidal is a volume-over-power guy. Unless Colby gets really, really foolish and engages Masvidal in a 25-minute kickboxing match, I don't see how Jorge wins.
I could see this being really ugly for Masvidal, and by that I mean being swept on the scorecards. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the fight sees the final bell, but I have zero interest in Jorge as an underdog play. The stylistic matchup is that poor for him.
THE PICK: Covington
Co-Main Event - Catchweight (160 Pounds)
Rafael dos Anjos (30-13-0) v. Renato Moicano (16-4-1)
DK Salaries: dos Anjos ($7,300), Moicano (TBD)
Vegas Odds: dos Anjos (TBD), Moicano (TBD)
Odds to Finish: TBD
As everyone is well aware, this was scheduled to be RDA v. Rafael Fiziev. Fiziev was forced to withdraw due to a positive COVID-19 test. The DK salaries for that fight had Fiziev at $8,900 and dos Anjos at $7,300.
Dos Anjos is now 37 years old. He had an unsuccessful run in his final five fights (1-4) at welterweight from June 2018 to January 2020, but returned to lightweight in November 2020 and took a split decision from Paul Felder in what ended up being Felder's final pro fight. RDA has been a professional since September 2004 and has UFC victories over the likes of Donald Cerrone (twice), Benson Henderson, Nate Diaz, Anthony Pettis, Neil Magny, Robbie Lawler, Kevin Lee, and Felder on his resume. He has also lost to Khabib Nurmagomedov, Kamaru Usman, Leon Edwards, Colby Covington, Tony Ferguson, and Eddie Alvarez, among others. In short, RDA has been fighting the best the sport has to offer for well over a decade and remains a threat despite his advanced age.
The UFC seems to be highly committed to keeping RDA on this card and the two leading contenders for this fight seem to be Renato Moicano, and the people's choice, Islam Makhachev. Makhachev fought just last week, obliterating Bobby Green in the main event in just over three minutes. He's probably the best lightweight in the world and he's going to be a monumental favorite over dos Anjos at welterweight, lightweight, or a catchweight.
Moicano has won three of four, with the sole loss in that span coming against Fiziev. He's a one-dimensional mat specialist who has improved enough on the feet over the years to remain competitive in most every fight in which he competes. I would expect a tight battle with RDA if he gets the call.
We should know the UFC's decision in fairly short order here.
Editor's Note: Moicano has indeed received the call, with the fight being verbally agreed to as of Tuesday afternoon. This should make RDA a pretty chalky play, and our pick, given he's priced like an underdog and the odds will presumably be relatively even -- he may even end up the favorite.
THE PICK: dos Anjos
Featherweight
Edson Barboza (22-10-0) v. Bryce Mitchell (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Barboza ($7,900), Mitchell ($8,300)
Vegas Odds: Barboza (+145), Mitchell (-165)
Odds to Finish: -165
This right here is smart matchmaking. It's a fight between a popular veteran, firmly entrenched in "gatekeeper" status in Barboza, against a young fighter with untapped potential in Mitchell.
The vast majority of the defeats have come against elite competition, but Barboza has been trending firmly in the wrong direction for the past four-plus years. He's 3-6 in his last nine bouts dating back to December 2017 and is fresh off a knockout loss to Giga Chikadze last August. At his best, Edson is an explosive striker with some of the best leg kicks in the the history of the sport. He was a fairly big lightweight, and he's huge for featherweight. This will be Barboza's fifth fight at 145 pounds. His record thus far is 2-2. I'm typically not a huge fan of a fighter moving down a weight class so late in their career, but Edson clearly wasn't going to be making another run at lightweight, so I had no issue with the decision.
Mitchell is 4-0 in the UFC, with three unanimous decisions and a submission win under his belt. Mitchell is just 27 years old and has been quite impressive thus far, but Barboza, even in his diminished condition, is considerably better than the likes of Andre Fili and Charles Rosa, Bryce's two best and most recent victories.
As impressive as Mitchell has been to date, his long-term ceiling his limited due to the lack of power in his hands. He doesn't have a single knockout victory in his entire professional career, and it's notoriously difficult to predict a submission in any given bout.
I'm curious to see how Mitchell fares against an opponent who is bigger than he is. That's typically one of Bryce's biggest advantages, but he's giving up an inch in height to Barboza and a whopping five inches in reach. I don't trust Barboza's durability these days, but I think Mitchell is at real risk of being overwhelmed on the feet in this fight.
There are enough questions marks surrounding Mitchell here for me to roll with Barboza as an underdog. I was pleasantly surprised with his somewhat diminished DK salary and I'm comfortable fading Mitchell against the best fighter he has seen to date.
THE PICK: Barboza
Welterweight
Kevin Holland (21-7-0, 1NC) v. Alex Oliveira (22-11-1, 2NC)
DK Salaries: Holland ($9,100), Oliveira ($7,100)
Vegas Odds: Holland (-300), Oliveira (+225)
Odds to Finish: -175
Holland finds himself in a must-win situation here if he wishes to remain relevant, while Oliviera -- who has lost three straight -- is almost certainly fighting for his job. Add in the fact this will be Holland's first bout at welterweight since October 2017, and this becomes a fight to keep a close eye on.
Holland signed a new multi-fight contract with the UFC just last year, but it's been all downhill since. He's 0-2 (1NC) in his last three bouts, with his most recent being a no-contest against Kyle Daukaus last October when Holland was knocked out cold after an accidental headbutt. Holland is long, athletic and powerful, but he can't defend a takedown to save his life, and he's at risk of getting pinned to the mat for long periods of time by any opponent he faces. Normally I would say that a high-level athlete would be able to improve in that area if they focus on it enough in training, but Holland has looked so bad I'm not at all optimistic any sort of improvement is forthcoming.
Oliveira is 2-6 dating back to December 2018. He fights frequently and can fight in different weight classes, so he has value to a company which holds an event most every week, but it's nearly impossible to see the Brazilian providing a ton of future value at age 34. Alex has a reasonable all-around offensive skill set, with poor submission defense being his long-time undoing. Six of Oliveria's 11 career defeats have come via submission. By comparison, he has been knocked out just once in his pro career.
Alex is very strong from a physical perspective and averages 2.27 takedowns per 15 minutes. Holland is a far better athlete and several years younger, but none of that will matter if he can't stay off of his back.
Oliveira is ridiculously tough and can wrestle. I'm worried about the athleticism and explosiveness edge Holland possesses, but the latter is going to have a difficult time getting off of his back if the Brazilian gets him there. There's a clear to path to victory here for Oliveira and that's enough for me to side with him with a potentially massive payoff on the line.
THE PICK: Oliveira
Heavyweight
Sergey Spivac (13-3-0) v. Greg Hardy (7-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Spivac ($8,700), Hardy ($7,500)
Vegas Odds; Spivac (-200), Hardy (+175)
Odds to Finish: -225
Hardy still continues to get notable fights despite the fact he has all of 12 professional bouts under his belt and has struggled massively of late. He is coming off back-to-back knockout defeats at the hands of Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura, and given all Hardy's extra baggage, it wouldn't be surprising to see the UFC cut their losses if he comes up short again here. Hardy was obviously an all-world athlete at one point, but he's now 33 years of age and lacks secondary mixed martial arts skills outside of explosiveness and power.
Spivac had a three-fight winning streak snapped in a knockout defeat at the hands of rising star Tom Aspinall last September. Spivac is barely over .500 (4-3) during his time with the company, but he does have a submission win over Tuivasa on his resume, and that looks pretty good right about now. Spivac is giving away plenty of power to Hardy, but he's a much better wrestler and much better on the mat. He should be in pretty good shape here if he is able to remain upright.
It goes without saying that the longer this fight lasts, the better it is for Spivac. Hardy has displayed woefully-poor cardio during his UFC run, which is surprising considering he is a former second team All-Pro NFL defensive end. Essentially, Hardy is going to find himself in all sorts of trouble if he isn't able to land a quick knockout. He has the power in his hands to make that a reality, but any worthwhile opponent is going to know that and thus limit his opportunities in the stand-up.
Hardy is a reasonable underdog play due to his overwhelming power edge, but he's almost certain to lose if he doesn't get a quick stoppage. That makes Spivac an easy pick.
THE PICK: Spivac
Other Bouts
Lightweight
Jalin Turner (11-5-0) v. Jamie Mullarkey (14-4-0)
DK Salaries: Turner ($8,200), Mullarkey ($8,000)
Vegas Odds: Turner (-160), Mullarkey (+140)
Odds to Finish: -210
THE PICK: Turner
Women's Strawweight
Marina Rodriguez (15-1-2) v. Yan Xiaonan (13-2-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Rodriguez ($9,300), Yan ($6,900)
Vegas Odds: Rodriguez (-255), Yan (+205)
Odds to Finish: +165
THE PICK: Rodriguez
Light Heavyweight
Nicolae Negumereanu (11-1-0) v. Kennedy Nzechukwu (9-2-0)
DK Salaries: Negumereanu ($7,800), Nzechukwu ($8,400)
Vegas Odds: Negumereanu (+125), Nzechukwu (-145)
Odds to Finish: -185
THE PICK: Negumereanu
Women's Flyweight
Maryna Moroz (10-3-0) v. Mariya Agapova (10-2-0)
DK Salaries: Moroz ($7,400), Agapova ($8,800)
Vegas Odds: Moroz (+175), Agapova (-210)
Odds to Finish: +130
THE PICK: Agapova
Featherweight
Brian Kelleher (24-12-0) v. Umar Nurmagomedov (13-0-0)
DK Salaries: Kelleher ($6,600), Nurmagomedov ($9,600)
Vegas Odds: Kelleher (+500), Nurmagomedov (-720)
Odds to Finish: +105
THE PICK: Nurmagomedov
Flyweight
Tim Elliott (18-12-1) v. Tagir Ulanbekov (14-1-0)
DK Salaries: Elliott ($7,200), Ulanbekov ($9,000)
Vegas Odds: Elliott (+205), Ulanbekov (-255)
Odds to Finish: +110
THE PICK: Ulanbekov
Lightweight
Devonte Smith (11-3-0) v. L'udovit Klein (17-4-0)
DK Salaries: Smith (TBD), Klein (TBD)
Vegas Odds: Smith (-170), Klein (+150)
Odds to Finish: -175
THE PICK: Smith
Light Heavyweight
Dustin Jacoby (16-5-1) v. Michal Oleksiejczuk (16-4-0, 1NC)
DK Salaries: Jacoby ($8,600), Oleksiejczuk ($7,600)
Vegas Odds: Jacoby (-200), Oleksiejczuk (+170)
Odds to Finish: -150
THE PICK: Jacoby
