Underdog PGA Draft Strategy: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

The best strategy and picks for Underdog PGA Drafts at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, including why Cullum Brownbridge thinks Matti Schmid can continue his momentum at TPC Craig Ranch this week.
Underdog PGA Draft Strategy: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Purse: $10.3M
Winner's Share: $1.854M
FedEx Cup Points: 500 to the Winner
Location: McKinney, Texas
Course: TPC Craig Ranch
Yardage: 7,385
Par: 71

Previous Winners

2025 - Scottie Scheffler (TPC Craig Ranch)
2024 - Taylor Pendrith (TPC Craig Ranch)
2023 - Jason Day (TPC Craig Ranch)
2022 - K.H. Lee (TPC Craig Ranch)
2021 - K.H. Lee (TPC Craig Ranch)
2020 - No Tournament
2019 - Sung Kang (Trinity Forest)
2018 - Aaron Wise (Trinity Forest)
2017 - Billy Horschel (TPC Four Seasons)
2016 - Sergio Garcia (TPC Four Seasons)

Recap: Rai-sing to the top at Aronimink

For the first time since Jim Barnes in 1919, an Englishman lifted the Wanamaker Trophy at the conclusion of the PGA Championship, with Aaron Rai lifting the trophy with a three-stroke victory after an action-packed weekend.

Aronimink Golf Club proved to be one of the more difficult courses on the schedule, with several top names -- including Bryson DeChambeau, Tommy Fleetwood, Robert MacIntyre and Russell Henley -- all missing the cut after two rounds of tough pin placements and tricky conditions. The pin locations over the weekend were more accessible and resulted in some big moves up the leaderboard, with Alex Smalley taking the clubhouse lead into Sunday while a cluster of players sat two or three shots back. Sunday's table saw the lead change hands several times, but it was Rai who emerged from the pack following an eagle on the ninth and a spectacular back nine, highlighted by 68-foot, 5-inch birdie putt on the 17th green to seal the first major victory of the 31-year-old's career.

There were plenty of other notable performances in Philadelphia. The LIV Golf contingent is still without a major victory since DeChambeau's playoff win over Rory McIlroy in 2024, but Jon Rahm led the breakaway tour with a runner-up finish after a 67-68 score over the weekend. Ripper GC captain and 2022 Open champion Cameron Smith broke out of his major slump with a T7 finish, while David Puig and Joaquinn Niemann (both T18) rounded out the LIV guys who finished in the top-20 at Aronimink. Speaking of McIlroy, the two-time Masters champion was one of those players at the four-under cluster heading into Sunday, but the Northern Irishman carded just two birdies to one bogey for a one-under 69 final round score. Kurt Kitayama shot himself out of contention with a five-over 75 third round but rebounded Sunday with a major-tying final round of 63 to crack the top-10. Other notable finishes include Justin Thomas (T4 after a five-under 65 final round), Xander Schauffele (T7), Matt Fitzpatrick and Scottie Scheffler (T14 each) and Jordan Spieth (T18).

Tournament Preview: THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson

Victim of being the tournament after a major, there isn't a lot of star power in the field this week at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson. The field is led by World No. 1 Scheffler, but he's the only player ranked in the OWGR's top-20 to be teeing off at TPC Craig Ranch this week, with Si Woo Kim (24) and Spieth (47) being the only other players in the top-50, with the likes of Brooks Koepka, Wyndham Clark, Sungjae Im and Michael Thorbjornsen being some other notable names. The lack of firepower presents an opportunity for lesser-known players to make a statement, including those battling on the Korn Ferry Tour like Zac Blair, Hayden Springer and 18-year-old Blades Brown.

Scheffler won this event in 2025 with a ridiculous 31-under cumulative score, and the four winners prior to that scored 23-under or lower. TPC Craig Ranch has historically been a birdie-fest, but the course underwent a massive overhaul last year to the tune of $25 million. Most of the course has new grass, with the renovations reverting the rough to Bermuda grass and the greens changing to Bentgrass. The fairways are now more narrow, and there are new bunkers strategically placed to penalize long drivers who mishit off the tee. Overall, the course is 200 yards shorter, and there are gettable holes like the par-4 14th and the par-5 12th. Perhaps the scoring won't be as low this year as it has been in prior years, but we'll believe it when we see it. Ball-striking (i.e., SG: Off-the-Tee and Tee-to-Green, total driving) and putting are going to be the main keys to success this week, and I'm looking at other categories like par-4 and par-5 scoring and birdie conversion. 

Underdog Contest Overview

Underdog hosts drafts every week at three buy-in amounts; The Par 3 at $3, the featured draft at $10, and "The Sandbagger" at $100. Each entrant will be paired up with five other participants and participate in a six-man snake draft of teams made up of six players (36 total selections), with each selection on a 30-second timer. For example, the person with the first overall pick and lucky enough to get Scheffler (unless you like to live dangerously) will have to wait until 2.6 and 3.1 to make their next selections. Points are allocated to golfers based on their performance on every hole, with bonus points available for golfers who make consecutive birdies or finish a round bogey free.

First Two Rounds

Si Woo Kim (2.3 Average Draft Position)

Scheffler (1.0 ADP) is the clear top choice this week (as he is pretty much every week), but whoever has the second pick will have their choice between Kim and Spieth (3.3 ADP). Spieth is coming off a better performance at the PGA Championship (T18 vs. Woo's T35), but I'll lean toward Kim for his stat profile. The 30-year-old from South Korea ranks fifth in SG: Tee-to-Green, sixth in SG: Approach and 19th in SG: Off-the-Tee this season. He was serviceable with his putter last week at Aronimink (48th in SG: Putting), an area that he has typically struggled with this season.

Brooks Koepka (5.1 ADP)

Koepka's T55 finish last week is a bit misleading; he was firmly in the top-20 at one-under, only to go four-over in his last four holes of the final round, including a double bogey on the par-3 17th after finding the water. Koepka has been shaky on the green (141st in SG: Putting), but he's one of the best ballstrikers on the Tour this season, ranking third in SG: Approach, fifth in GIR, seventh in proximity and eighth in SG: Tee-to-Green. He also ranks seventh in par-5 scoring, which should play in his favor at Craig Ranch.

Matti Schmid (8.4 ADP)

Schmid is coming off his best career finish at a major with a T4 at the PGA Championship, which he briefly led during the final round before Rai's surge up the leaderboard. It was also the best finish of the season for Schmid and his fourth top-10 if you include the Zurich Classic. The 28-year-old German doesn't stand out statistically, but his performance at Aronimink gives him plenty of momentum and a real shot at his first Tour win in a weakened field.

Davis Thompson (10.6 ADP)

Thompson didn't qualify for the PGA Championship but has three top-15 finishes in each of his last three outings, including a T13 at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic two weeks ago. He ranks 15th in GIR, 17th in SG: Approach, 18th in Tee-to-Green. An improved putter would put Thompson in serious contention for his second PGA Tour victory.

Also consider: Ryo Hisatsune (9.3 ADP - T35 at the PGA Championship, ranks 19th in SG: Tee-to-Green and in the top-40 in SG: Total, Off-the-Tee and Approach, as well as 12th and 19th in GIR and proximity, respectively).

Middle-Round Value

Stephan Jaeger (13.5 ADP)

Jaeger hasn't been great off the tee or with his irons, but he used a three-under 67 opening round to propel himself to a T18 finish at last week's PGA, his best career performance at a major. He's made the cut in each of the last five years at THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson, including T11 in 2023 and T20 in 2024. Perhaps last week's performance at Aronimink will give Jaeger the confidence he needs to contend at TPC Craig Ranch.

Rasmus Hojgaard (18.1 ADP)

Hojgaard barely made the cut last week and finished T65 at the PGA Championship. Not exactly his best performance, though he's made the cut in each of the last eight majors he's teed off at. Hojgaard ranks 23rd in SG: Putting, 30th in Total and 48th in Off-the-Tee, and he's also 20th this season in GIR.

Eric Cole (18.5 ADP)

Cole is coming off a T6 finish at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic and has cracked the top-15 in each of his last three outings. His success has come from his short game, as he ranks third on the PGA Tour in SG: Approach and 18th in SG: Putting. He's been awful off the tee, but Cole is worth a look at the turn of the third/fourth round.

Blades Brown (25.4 ADP)

The 18-year-old Brown would earn Special Temporary Membership for the rest of the 2026 season if he were to finish solo 21st or higher this week. He has bounced back and forth between the PGA and Korn Ferry this season, having finished T9 two weeks ago at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic and T16 last week at the Colonial Life Charity Classic. Brown also has three top-3 finishes to his name, two on the Korn Ferry and one on the PGA at the Puerto Rico Open in early March.

Also consider: Haotong Li (17.5 ADP - tied for 35th last week after missing the cut in six of his seven prior events, ranks 25th and 39th in SG: Off-the-Tee and Approach, respectively). 

Late-Round Targets

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (27.7 ADP)

Bezuidenhout used a three-under 67 final round to jump up to a T35 finish at last week's PGA Championship, one week after his season-best T6 outing at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic. He ranks seventh in SG: Putting, 31st in SG: Around-the-Green and 25th in scrambling. He's also third in sand save percentage, which could help  Bezuidenhout with the new bunkers on the Craig Ranch course.

Michael Brennan (29.1 ADP)

Brennan's eight-over 78 final round last week plummeted him down to 81st out of the 82 players who made the cut at the PGA Championship. At least he made it to the weekend, the second time he's done so at a major this season (T24 at The Masters). Brennan's strength comes off the tee; he ranks second in SG: Off-the-Tee and third in both total driving and driving distance. 

Kevin Roy (31.5 ADP)

Roy has made the cut in nine of 11 tournaments this season and is coming off a T3 finish at the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, his first top-3 finish since the John Deere Classic in July. He ranks in the top-25 in SG: Putting and Around-the-Green and 51st in SG: Off-the-Tee, as well as 20th in scrambling and 33rd in proximity.

Beau Hossler (35.0 ADP)

Hossler was right there with Roy last week, also finishing T3 at the Myrtle Beach Classic for his best finish since his playoff loss at the 2024 Sanderson Farms Championship. Hossler is fourth on the Tour in SG: Putting, 19th in both SG: Total and Around-the-Green and second in scrambling.

Also consider: John Parry (36.0 ADP - has made the cut in all 12 tournaments this season, ranks sixth in GIR, 28th in proximity, 30th in SG: Approach and 53rd in SG: Tee-to-Green).

For up-to-the-minute updates on injuries, tournament participation and overall golfer performance, head to RotoWire's latest golf news or follow @RotoWireGolf on X.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Cullum is a RotoWire contributor for the NFL, NBA, MLB and Golf. He is irrationally pessimistic about his favorite sports teams.
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