This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
Match Play is a crapshoot. The WGC Match Play this week in Austin, Texas, at the Austin Country Club is a crapshoot. I have zero idea what's going to happen. Not sure any of the players do, either. As we always say, you can shoot 78 in match play and win and 68 and lose. Consequently, writing a stats column isn't easy work for this week. So here are some nuggets I've discovered:
• Rory McIlroy is playing really good golf. He was 10-under on the weekend at Bay Hill, and no one was better (via Golf Channel's Todd Lewis). Except for a three-putt on 18 after needing to give a 30-foot birdie putt a good ride to try and make a playoff, the T4 finish capped off a week where he ranked third in strokes gained–off the tee, first in approach to the green, first in driving distance at 314.7 yards and third in greens in regulation. He's absolutely pummeling it – and the nice weather in Austin should help that continue – and with the aggressive play that comes with match play, I absolutely think he has a shot to win this week and in that place called Augusta in two weeks.
• Meanwhile, I don't like Jason Day at all this week. Yes, he's the defending champion and can overpower a golf course but his new swing doesn't look right to me and he seems out of sync and out of sorts. At Bay Hill he ranked
Match Play is a crapshoot. The WGC Match Play this week in Austin, Texas, at the Austin Country Club is a crapshoot. I have zero idea what's going to happen. Not sure any of the players do, either. As we always say, you can shoot 78 in match play and win and 68 and lose. Consequently, writing a stats column isn't easy work for this week. So here are some nuggets I've discovered:
• Rory McIlroy is playing really good golf. He was 10-under on the weekend at Bay Hill, and no one was better (via Golf Channel's Todd Lewis). Except for a three-putt on 18 after needing to give a 30-foot birdie putt a good ride to try and make a playoff, the T4 finish capped off a week where he ranked third in strokes gained–off the tee, first in approach to the green, first in driving distance at 314.7 yards and third in greens in regulation. He's absolutely pummeling it – and the nice weather in Austin should help that continue – and with the aggressive play that comes with match play, I absolutely think he has a shot to win this week and in that place called Augusta in two weeks.
• Meanwhile, I don't like Jason Day at all this week. Yes, he's the defending champion and can overpower a golf course but his new swing doesn't look right to me and he seems out of sync and out of sorts. At Bay Hill he ranked 34th in strokes gained-off the tee, 65th in approach to the green and 24th in putting. In his dazzling 2014-15 season, for example, he was third, 25th and sixth, respectively. That's a steep drop off and I don't like what I see. Avoid him.
Other Notes & Nuggets
• Last year I told you to watch out for Danny Willett in this event and at Augusta. He played solid in Austin and after Jordan Spieth gave him an opening on the back nine on Sunday at Augusta he pounced and got a green jacket. My equivalent this year is Tyrrell Hatton. Yet another solid finish at Bay Hill – T4 – was helped by ranking T17 in strokes gained-off the tee, seventh in approach to the green and fifth in putting. Nice combination.
• Thomas Pieters had a great Ryder Cup and is a great match play player already in his young career. Patrick Reed is a bonafide match play superstar. Pieters, in finishing fifth in Mexico in the last WGC was T6 in birdies, third in strokes gained-approach to the green and 14th in putting. Nice line.
Reed is interesting – he's struggled majorly in 2017, especially after the CareerBuilder Challenge. After finishing T12 there he's gone T68-T23-T59-T61-T38, yet is still 48th in birdie average and 45th in total birdies. That matters this week, the mistakes don't, and I think Reed is good to go as a pick this week.
• One more pick for this week: Matthew Fitzpatrick. He tied for 13th at Bay Hill – a Sunday 76 sent him down the leaderboard a bit – but throughout the week he showed flashes of why so many have big hopes for his future. He ranked fourth in strokes gained-putting and T21 in strokes gained-around the green, the latter especially helpful this week as players try to chip and pitch more balls in than they do during stroke play.
P.S. No one asked, but Tommy Fleetwood is going to win his group.
Weather
Everyday will be sunny and in the 80s except for Friday, when thunderstorms could reign down. It will be especially windy, however, on Thursday, Friday and Sunday.
PUERTO RICO OPEN
For those not in the top 69 in the world (five players chose not to play in the Match Play), most of the rest of the PGA Tour either took this week to rest or is in Puerto Rico.
The big name to watch here is Wesley Bryan. Although the winner of this event does not automatically qualify for the Masters, if enough players around 50th in the World Rankings stumble at Match Play, the winner here could vault to Augusta National in two weeks.
The key in Puerto Rico is what I call general accuracy – you don't need to hit every fairway or green, but in windy conditions, you need to be pretty close to being on. Bryan is 35th in strokes gained-approach to the green and 29th in strokes gained-around the green for the season and in this recent run of good play – take the tight Valspar Championship for example – he was T9 in driving accuracy and 22nd in strokes gained-off the tee. With all the motivation in the world to play well, I like Bryan once again this week.
Other players who immediately jump onto the radar are Chesson Hadley, Stuart Appleby, Andrew Johnston, Danny Lee, Graeme McDowell – who is probably the flashiest name here – Sam Saunders and Harold Varner III.
But the two names I recommend you keep an eye on are J.T. Poston and J.J. Spaun. Both rookies, Poston has had a nice run of late, including finishes of T17-T27-T14 in his last three starts. In that last finish in Tampa he ranked T10 in strokes gained-approach to the green, T27 in driving accuracy and T11 in greens in regulation. Spaun, meanwhile, has two top-10s and three top-25s this season and ranks 58th and 66th in driving accuracy and greens in regulation respectively. I like both of those guys this week.
Weather
It will be a wet week with a chance of rain everyday, temperatures in the 80s and a breeze about 10 mph. Interesting conditions, indeed.
