This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
This week is the Valspar Championship at Palm Harbor, Fla., near Tampa, where you'll hear a lot of talk about the Snake Pit and other characteristics of the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook. Here's our stats thread.
How Did It All Go Wrong?
We talk a lot about those who did well but not enough about those who played poorly when it counted. It's interesting to dive in and see what happened. Lee Westwood went from a potential victory at the WGC-Mexico Championship to a final-round 78 and a T28 finish following a Saturday 66. What went wrong? From an obvious perspective: he made too many bogeys or worse – three bogeys and four double bogeys – which you can't do to win. But from a stats perspective, he hit his second most fairways for the week and his least amount of greens but only by one (11 of 18). Nothing crazy. However, he putted atrociously – he lost 4.011 strokes to the field Sunday on the greens after being in positive territory all week. Furthermore, his short game didn't help his cause as his strokes gained-around the green figure was -2.521. Altogether that added up to a loss of 6.868 strokes to the field and a really disappointing finish for the guy who most people agree is one of the best players never to win a major in this generation.
Be Accurate
That's the key at the Copperhead course – be accurate off the tee, hit greens, make putts. That
This week is the Valspar Championship at Palm Harbor, Fla., near Tampa, where you'll hear a lot of talk about the Snake Pit and other characteristics of the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook. Here's our stats thread.
How Did It All Go Wrong?
We talk a lot about those who did well but not enough about those who played poorly when it counted. It's interesting to dive in and see what happened. Lee Westwood went from a potential victory at the WGC-Mexico Championship to a final-round 78 and a T28 finish following a Saturday 66. What went wrong? From an obvious perspective: he made too many bogeys or worse – three bogeys and four double bogeys – which you can't do to win. But from a stats perspective, he hit his second most fairways for the week and his least amount of greens but only by one (11 of 18). Nothing crazy. However, he putted atrociously – he lost 4.011 strokes to the field Sunday on the greens after being in positive territory all week. Furthermore, his short game didn't help his cause as his strokes gained-around the green figure was -2.521. Altogether that added up to a loss of 6.868 strokes to the field and a really disappointing finish for the guy who most people agree is one of the best players never to win a major in this generation.
Be Accurate
That's the key at the Copperhead course – be accurate off the tee, hit greens, make putts. That means green in regulation is a key stat this week. Here's the green in regulation leaders in the field this week:
Billy Horschel - 75.99 percent
Lucas Glover - 75.56
Kyle Stanley - 74.83
Chris Kirk - 74.65
Jim Herman - 74.37
Our two picks are Horschel and Stanley, both of whom are slowly seeing their games turn around. Horschel tied for 24th in Phoenix and T4'd in his last start at the Honda where he closed in 68 and ranked second in strokes gained-approach to the green and strokes gained-tee to green for the week. That'll help this week.
Stanley is coming off a missed cut at the Honda but before that had made five consecutive, including a T14 at Torrey Pines with no finish worse than T39. This season he ranks seventh in strokes gained-off the tee, 11th in approach to the green and sixth in tee to green.
The Contenders
Patrick Reed, Henrik Stenson, defending champion Charl Schwartzel, Bubba Watson, Justin Thomas, B.H. An, Daniel Berger, Keegan Bradley, Wesley Bryan, Jason Dufner, Luke Donald, Ernie Els, Tony Finau, Harris English, Bill Haas, Danny Lee, Ian Poulter, Patrick Rodgers and Harold Varner.
Frankly, there are not a lot of guys I like on this list. This is one of those weeks – the too-many-events-in-a-row syndrome has led to a bunch of golfers who normally play here skipping this week, like Jordan Spieth – to where there's some nice picks but not great picks.
When push comes to shove, Reed and Stenson are my main two picks. Reed has played well here (he lost in the epic Spieth playoff), and while he doesn't have a top-10 since the Tournament of Champions, his finishes are all decent and ranks 28th in putting. I am concerned about his 100th-plus rankings in fairways and greens hit, but Reed is streaky and if he drives it well, where he ranks 42nd, I think he can make up for those other deficiencies.
Stenson withdrew last week at the WGC-Mexico Championship with the stomach flu that hit numerous players and caddies. This is set to be his first start on the PGA Tour in 2017, but he's already played twice in Europe, where he went T8 in Abu Dhabi and second in Dubai. In those two starts his scoring average was 68.38, and he hit 77.68 percent of his fairways and 79.86 percent of his greens. Keep that up this week and he'll be in good shape.
One other name to watch: Haas. He lost in a playoff here last year, already has two top-15s in 2017 and ranks 30th in strokes gained-approach to the green, 12th in around the green and 19th from tee to green. He fits this golf course perfectly.
The Weather
The weather this week will be gorgeous, with temperatures in the high 70s-low 80s, sunny skies and light winds.
