This article is part of our PGA Tour Stats Review series.
Every week on the PGA Tour is emotional for one reason or another – most notably for those who win and those who come up short – but this week, the first Arnold Palmer Invitational since Mr. Palmer's passing, will be exceptionally emotional. Here's our stats preview.
Sometimes Simple Wins Out
But first, here's a note on last week. In most sports, scoring more points than the other team means you win. In golf it's all about having the least number of strokes. But also in golf, making a massive amount (in terms of length) of putts can also portend good vibes. That was indeed the case for Valspar Champion winner Adam Hadwin. He made a total of 422 feet, 11 inches worth of putts, including a 53-footer on No. 13 on Sunday and 33 and 55 footers on Saturday. That'll help you get your first PGA Tour win.
The Stat
Bay Hill is weird, sometimes. Consider these recent winning scores in relation to par: -17, -19, -13, -13. Yet we always hear about water, trouble spots and inopportune bogeys or worse, right? So with that in mind, our key stat this week is the bounce-back stat, which measures how often players come back from bogey or worse with birdie or better on the very next hole. Here's the best of those in the field this week:
Greg Owen - 41.67 percent
Bubba Watson - 32.73
Keegan Bradley - 30.95
Stewart Cink - 30.53
Hideki Matsuyama - 30.36
First of
Every week on the PGA Tour is emotional for one reason or another – most notably for those who win and those who come up short – but this week, the first Arnold Palmer Invitational since Mr. Palmer's passing, will be exceptionally emotional. Here's our stats preview.
Sometimes Simple Wins Out
But first, here's a note on last week. In most sports, scoring more points than the other team means you win. In golf it's all about having the least number of strokes. But also in golf, making a massive amount (in terms of length) of putts can also portend good vibes. That was indeed the case for Valspar Champion winner Adam Hadwin. He made a total of 422 feet, 11 inches worth of putts, including a 53-footer on No. 13 on Sunday and 33 and 55 footers on Saturday. That'll help you get your first PGA Tour win.
The Stat
Bay Hill is weird, sometimes. Consider these recent winning scores in relation to par: -17, -19, -13, -13. Yet we always hear about water, trouble spots and inopportune bogeys or worse, right? So with that in mind, our key stat this week is the bounce-back stat, which measures how often players come back from bogey or worse with birdie or better on the very next hole. Here's the best of those in the field this week:
Greg Owen - 41.67 percent
Bubba Watson - 32.73
Keegan Bradley - 30.95
Stewart Cink - 30.53
Hideki Matsuyama - 30.36
First of all, I do NOT recommend Watson, who seems utterly lost at the moment. After winning at Riviera last year he has zero top-5s, one top-10 and zero good chances at a victory. Furthermore, stats wise, while he's fifth in strokes gained–off the tee in his limited rounds tracked by ShotLink (only 13), he's 101st in driving accuracy, 190th in greens in regulation, 166th in birdie average and 189th in scoring average – all four-round stats. Don't pick him this week.
Matsuyama and Bradley are my two recommendations. Let's focus in again on Bradley, who is slowly working himself back after basically hitting golfing rock bottom post-anchoring ban. Since his T25-T4 run at CareerBuilder and Torrey Pines his game has gotten a bit inconsistent, going missed cut-T34-missed cut-T58. But those are still checks and FedEx Cup points being cashed, and with a ranking of 43rd in strokes gained-off the tee and 39th in tee to green, if you need someone with good ball-striking stats, Bradley could be your man this week.
The Contenders
The field, chided in some places for being short on some of the biggest names in golf, includes Rory McIlroy, defending champion Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Zach Johnson, past champion Graeme McDowell, Arnie's grandson Sam Saunders, Thomas Pieters, Justin Rose, Henrik Stenson, Alex Noren, Paul Casey, Ernie Els, Hadwin, Tyrrell Hatton, Wesley Bryan, Martin Kaymer, Louis Oosthuizen, Patrick Rodgers, Webb Simpson and more.
Obviously if you believe that last week's winners can keep momentum than Hadwin is on-form for a good pick. Fowler, Pieters, Rose, Hatton and Stenson have shown good play of lately, as well.
McIlroy looked healthy until the weekend in his return in Mexico and was fourth in strokes gained tee to green. Assuming his short game behaves – he was 64th in around the green and lost strokes to the field over the weekend – he could nab his first win of 2017 this week, as well.
Bryan continues to play really solid golf, getting another T7 finish last week, to go along with his T4 finishes at Riviera and Honda. And like in those two finishes, his strong stats this week came from his iron and short game, where he was 13th in strokes gained-approach to the green and 15th in around the green. Combine that with his strong driving where he was T9 in driving accuracy and you have a potent combination at Bay Hill. I recommend him this week.
Let's take a look at Noren, one of the best players in the world that too few people in America have heard about. The 11th-ranked player in the world makes his first start in the U.S. since the PGA Championship. So far in 2017 he's gone T13-T21-missed cut-T55, and has hit 50.89 percent of his fairways and 78.47 percent of his greens on the European Tour, with a scoring average of 70.57. Except for fairways hit, those are all above the PGA Tour average. If he hits a couple more fairways, he could be the newest international winner at Bay Hill.
The Weather
The weather in Orlando will be perfect: sunny, highs in the upper 60s and 70s with fairly light breezes.
