3M Open One and Done Picks
The final major of 2026 has come and gone, and players will now focus on positioning themselves for the FedExCup Playoffs. The 3M Open is the first of three straight standard stops that will determine the 70 golfers who secure a spot in golf's version of a postseason. The top 50 will advance to the BMW Championship and earn their way into all the Signature Events in 2027, while the top 30 will have a chance to win the FedEx Cup at the TOUR Championship.
TPC Twin Cities hosted a PGA Tour Champions event from 2001-2018, but since 2019 it has held the 3M Open during the summer portion of the PGA Tour schedule. We've seen exciting finishes over the years on the dramatic par-5 18th hole with water all the way down the right side, none more so than the first edition, when Matthew Wolff outlasted Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa with an eagle at the last. Kurt Kitayama enters as the defending champion after besting Sam Stevens by one stroke in 2025.
These three straight regular events to close the regular season feature purses of $8.8 million, $10 million and $8.5 million, which will be significantly less than the $20 million, $20 million and $40 million purses of the three playoff events. If you still have one of the better players available -- Scottie Scheffler, anyone? -- you will likely want to save them for the Playoffs. Long shots have won the 3M Open, so there will be several ways to swing for the fences.
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Course Tidbits
- Course: TPC Twin Cities (7,431 yards, par 71)
- Location: Blaine, Minnesota
- Purse: $8.8 million -- $1.584 million to winner
- Defending Champion: Kurt Kitayma (-23)
- 2025 Scoring Average: 68.839 (-2.161)
- 2025 36-Hole Cut: -5
- Average Winning Score Last 5 Years: -19.2
Bombers sure have had a lot of success at TPC Twin Cities. Wolff, Cameron Champ, Tony Finau and Kitayama have all won here and are known for being able to overpower golf courses. Plenty other big hitters have filled out the top 10 here in recent years. That's certainly interesting considering how much water is on the course and the fact that driver isn't used as much here as it is at some other Midwest courses.
While the greens themselves are typically pretty easy to hit in regulation, proximity numbers will create some separation. Many approaches will come from further back, which isn't always the case in birdie-fests. The 175-225 yard range could be very telling this week, particularly with all four par-3s falling in that bucket.
Shots both around the greens and on them are statistically easier at TPC Twin Cities than at a lot of other courses. Many of the recent champions have actually lost strokes around the putting surfaces. The bentgrass greens will creep up to 12.5 on the Stimpmeter and will roll much smoother than a lot of the afternoon starters saw at Royal Birkdale. We will see a high make percentage inside of 10 feet and a minimal number of three-putts.
All in all, ball striking should rule the week. Being able to hit it long and straight, while also maximizing the amount of birdie chances inside 20 feet will be crucial. Players will have to go low just to make the weekend, as 5-under-par was the 36-hole cut line last year. The pressure will be on right out of the gate to card some red numbers, but major danger lurks everywhere on this course.
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3M Open: One and Done Picks
I was between Ghim and Michael Brennan this week. Brennan is the best driver in the field and has the most upside, but Ghim has posted more quality results of late. The 30-year-old has seven finishes of T31 or better over his last eight starts. That includes a T6 at the John Deere Classic, a similar test that also took place on bentgrass greens. Ghim has struck the ball very well this year, ranking sixth in SG: Off-the-Tee, 30th in total driving, 28th in GIR Percentage and 16th in proximity. He ranks ninth in this field in SG: Total and was the seventh best player in my model. He also has solid history at this course, with four finishes of T27 or better in six starts. --Ryan Andrade
I'm going a bit down the list, and there are a few reasons for that. First, I'm way behind in my league and need to make up some ground, and I don't think Suber will be overly popular. Second, Suber has shown some flashes lately, finishing top-6 in two of his past five starts. He has fared okay against stronger fields recently, posting top-30s at the Travelers and The Open. Last but not least is -- as detailed above -- the penchant for unexpected winners to emerge victorious at TPC Twin Cities. --Greg Vara
The top Korn Ferry Tour in 2025 player struggled in the early going but has come on strong, now sitting 71st in the standings. If Keefer could putt even a lick he could be a great player -- not good, great. He is ranked ninth on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee -- he's 10th in driving distance -- and 15th in Approach. There's only one guy in this field better than that, and that's Scheffler. --Len Hochberg
One-and-Done pools tend to have a more casual contingent of entrants than daily fantasy sports contests, so someone like James may go overlooked with only five starts at the PGA Tour level following an incredible collegiate career that saw him be named a first-team All-American all four years. He just tied for fourth at the Corales Puntacana Championship, where he ranked top-5 among the field in both GIR percentage and SG: Approach, notably carding only three total bogeys or worse while amassing 22 birdies. If you're playing from further back in the pack on your season-long leaderboard, James is a viable pivot off the bigger household names. --Bryce Danielson
I don't have to be particularly risky based on where I sit in the standings, so I'm going with the golfer who won this event last year and finished T6 the year before. The upside is evident, and I like the floor as well, with Kitayama missing just two cuts all season. Among the 101 golfers who played here the last two years -- notably, not Scheffler -- Kitayama ranks first in all of SG: Tee-to-Green, Approach, Ball Striking and Total. He has been roughly average on the putting surfaces at TPC Twin Cities, but among players in the field he is above average on bentgrass. --Kevin O'Brien
3M Open: One and Done Fades
Matsuyama is the fourth choice on the betting board, but this does not feel like a great spot for him. He has struggled to drive it for the better part of two years, and that's not someone I want to lay my chips on at a course like this with so much trouble. His lack of high finishes is also a big cause for concern in one-and-done formats. Matsuyama has just two top-10 finishes in official PGA Tour events since his win at The Sentry at the start of 2025. --Ryan Andrade
It's tough to find a golfer worthy of fading this week, because everyone outside of Scheffler is +2400 or higher. Of course you want to avoid most of them. Matsuyama, however, is a big name, and with little reason to peg Scheffler he is effectively the most prominent option available. Matsuyama's game isn't quite there right now, he hasn't posted a top-10 since February, and while he played pretty well at The Open, it doesn't feel like he's on the verge of a victory. --Greg Vara
Matsuyama should have a decent week, seeing as he makes just about every cut. But he won't finish high enough to justify his standing as a top-5 betting choice. He has only two top-10s all season. --Len Hochberg
As one of the betting favorites behind Scheffler from an outright odds perspective, McNealy could carry too much ownership for his actually meager win equity. He has claimed just one victory and three runner-up finishes through 185 career starts on the PGA Tour. He's coming off an underwhelming T32-T55-MC stretch from the U.S. Open through The Open, losing a collective 5.23 strokes on approach across these 10 most recent rounds. On the season, McNealy ranks 113th in SG: Approach, 118th in proximity and 143rd in Prox: 175-200 yards. Target a better ball striker at TPC Twin Cities. --Bryce Danielson
Knapp might pop in some longer-term models given his stellar start to the season and the T3 he posted in the Twin Cities last year, but he has been unable to get back on track since missing two months with a thumb injury, and among golfers in the field ranks a woeful 117th in SG: Total over the last two months. --Kevin O'Brien
Don't get burned by late withdrawals. Visit RotoWire's PGA tournament field page for a live-updated summary of the field for the current week and list of players who have dropped out.
