Truist Championship Betting Preview

The PGA Tour heads north to Charlotte, North Carolina, for the second straight signature event in the lead up to next week's second major championship of the year for this week's Truist Championship. Host of the 2025 PGA Championship, Quail Hollow returns as the host venue after last year's event was played at The Philadelphia Cricket Club. The 72-player field is missing five eligible players in Scottie Scheffler, Collin Morikawa, Jake Knapp, Shane Lowry and Russell Henley, while Rory McIlroy headlines as the tournament favorite at 6-1 for the no-cut event. Last year, Sepp Straka (40-1) won by two shots over Shane Lowry and Justin Thomas for his fourth Tour victory.

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 12:30 PM ET Wednesday

Course Overview

Par 71, 7,583 yards

These are the average rankings of the champions at Quail Hollow since 2021:

• SG: Off-the-Tee: 11.3
• SG: Approach: 6.0
• SG: Around-the-Green: 23.5
• SG: Putting: 9.5
• SG: Tee-to-Green: 3.0
• Driving Distance: 11.5
• Driving Accuracy: 57.5

A two-time major venue and host of the 2022 Presidents Cup, Quail Hollow has been a yearly Tour stop since 2003. Another long course at nearly 7,600 yards with three par-5s, scoring tends to be difficult with the winner likely to be in the 12-to-14 under range. Golfers will look to take advantage of the par-5s and the two short par-4s (8 and 14) that play under 350 yards before trying to survive 'The Green Mile' - a challenging three-hole closing stretch that includes a pair of par-4s over 490 yards with water on play on all three holes. Off-the-tee, distance is an obvious advantage as outlined in the metrics above, as the longer hitters can take a lot of the bunkers and trouble out of play. Ball striking and tee-to-green play will be key, with the winner leading the field in the latter category in each of the last three years. In addition to longer hitters, I'll be targeting good iron players from 175-225 yards with a lot of approach shots coming in that range as well as players that rank well in bogey avoidance. 

Course History

The following players have the lowest scoring average at Quail Hollow across the last five years:

• Xander Schauffele: 69.1
• Rory McIlroy: 69.5
• Adam Scott: 70.1
• Harris English: 70.2
• Tommy Fleetwood: 70.2

This is one of those weeks where course history is more important than usual, making Schauffele (+1125) stand out given his back-to-back runner-up finishes in 2023 and '24. One of a handful of players that skipped Doral last week, he'll come in refreshed following two weeks off and is back showing strong form with four consecutive results of T12 or better including ranking second in SG: Off-the-Tee last time out at Harbour Town. A bit farther down the odds board on this list we find English (48-1), who was bested by only Scheffler at last year's PGA Championship in which he led the field in SG: Approach. In addition to a T3 at the event three years ago, he comes in with a top-5 at a signature event two events back. English's last win came on another long and difficult golf course in Torrey Pines last year. 

Best Ball Strikers

These five players, on a per-round basis, have gained the most strokes off the tee and on approach combined over their last 20 rounds:

• Cameron Young: 2.10
• Xander Schauffele: 1.92
• Rory McIlroy: 1.83
• Ludvig Aberg: 1.69
• J.J. Spaun: 1.54

Young had a dominating performance at the Blue Monster last week, going wire-to-wire to win by six shots. The 28-year-old is emerging as a star in the game with three wins and nine top-10s over his last 14 events. Young played collegiately in North Carolina as well, and although his track record here doesn't jump out, his recent level of play is far more important and the course fits his game very well. Meanwhile, McIlroy appears on both lists as he returns to action for the first time since successfully defending his title at Augusta National. A four-time winner at Quail Hollow, his distance advantage gives him a leg up here, although poor iron play last year and in 2023 led to identical T47 results. With that said, his approach play has been very good this year, and a strong week on the green will make him difficult to beat. 

Truist Championship Bets: Outright Picks

Ludvig Aberg (+1650)

Aberg has been one of the most consistently good players over the last two months, recording top-5s in four of his last five starts although he's yet to close the deal with a win. He's one of only two players to rank in the top-40 in every strokes gained category this year.

Adam Scott (30-1)

Scott's course history makes him a strong target this week. He was T19 at the PGA Championship last year and T5 here two years prior to that. Scott's resurgence this year has largely been due to his iron play, as he leads the Tour in SG: Approach.

Gary Woodland (65-1)

What a turn of events the last couple months has been for Woodland. After looking lost to start the year, he's posted three top-15s across his last five starts highlighted by his first win since the U.S. Open in 2019 at the Houston Open. Woodland has two top-5s here as well.

Truist Championship Bets: Placement Wagers

Taylor Pendrith
Top-10 Finish: +550

We know ball striking will be key this week, and Pendrith jumps out as a value option considering he ranks 31st or better in SG: Off-the-Tee, driving distance and greens in regulation. He's also posted back-to-back top-10s at the venue.

Justin Thomas
Top-5 Finish: +740

Thomas has shown glimpses of playing well this year with a top-10 at THE PLAYERS, and he was seventh in SG: Tee-to-Green last week. He has good memories here as well having won the 2017 PGA Championship at Quail Hollow.

Alex Smalley
Top-5 Finish: +950

This will be Smalley's third appearance at the Charlotte venue, where he's finished T18 and T23 amongst full fields – not bad for a guy that was outside the top-100 each time. He's playing much better this time around with three consecutive top-25s, highlighted by a T7 at Doral last week.

Truist Championship Bets: Head-to-Head Matchups

Tommy Fleetwood (-115) over Si Woo Kim

Following a strong start to the year with four top-10s over his first five events, Fleetwood has cooled off over the last month. A return to Quail Hollow where he has three top-15s across his last four appearances should get him going again. I'll take him over Si Woo, who has obviously had an excellent year but his inconsistent putting and lack of distance gives me cause for concern this week.

Sepp Straka (-116) over Jordan Spieth

Straka posted a top-10 the one time this was a signature event at Quail Hollow, and he showed good form last week with a top-5 at Doral. Meanwhile, Spieth has failed to post a top-25 across five trips to Charlotte and has been too inconsistent from tee to green to be confident backing here.

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