This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
After a few uninspiring Thursday night games, Week 16 features one of the better recent matchups and one that is pivotal for the playoff picture. The Rams play host to the Saints and are installed as 4 to 4.5-point favorites, depending on the book. We should be in for plenty of offense, as the game total is 46 at DK Sportsbook and 46.5 on FanDuel Sportsbook. That gives the Rams roughly a 25-point total and the Saints 21. Let's dive deep into the matchup.
Quarterback
Matthew Stafford ($10,000 DK/$15,500 FD) is the higher priced of the quarterbacks and has been on a heater in his last four games. In that span, he's thrown multiple touchdowns in every game and has reached a minimum of 18.52 FD points in that span. His ceiling isn't with the elites at the position, but he's built an excellent floor. A glance at the Saints' recent performance against quarterbacks suggests it's a tough matchup, as they've allowed only 10.85 and 13.10 FD points in their last two games. However, those came against Tommy DeVito and Bryce Young. It's not an easy matchup, but it's also not a reason to move away from Stafford.
As for Derek Carr ($9,000 DK, $14,000 FD), he showed well against the Giants' defense last week but had failed to reach even 15 fantasy points in four consecutive games prior. The Rams are something of a pass funnel, so perhaps the Saints will take to the air more frequently, which makes him an interesting alternative at a discounted price to Stafford.
Running Back
Kyren Williams ($11,200 DK/$16,000 FD) has made something of a shocking leap to fantasy superstardom. He's topped 20 rushing attempts in four of the last five games and has a minimum of three receptions in four consecutive games. In those four games, he's averaged 22.22 FD points. Even after fumbling twice in Week 14, coach Sean McVay gave Williams a vote of confidence. There's also not much depth behind him. He's the most expensive player on both sites, but its deserved. Royce Freeman ($2,600 DK/$7,000 FD) has no more than 17 offensive snaps in the last three weeks and hasn't topped 16 yards from scrimmage. The word of caution is that New Orleans has legitimately been a good run defense for much of the season, and that hasn't been only on the basis of matchup. For example, in Week 13, they held the Lions backfield to a collective 16.9 fantasy points.
Things aren't much different in New Orleans. Alvin Kamara ($10,800 DK/$15,000 FD) checks in at a similar price and his workload is safe, particularly as a receiver. That's the exact issue in this matchup, as the Rams have allowed only 284 receiving yards to running backs — the fewest in the league. Having Kamara's primary path to points (particularly on DK) threatened is a big risk given his salary. Jamaal Williams ($4,200 DK/$7,000 FD) has failed to make an impact this season.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Chris Olave ($8,600 DK/$12,500 FD) is set to return from a one-game absence caused by an ankle injury. He hasn't necessarily taken the second-year leap many hoped, but he has a safe floor. He's racked up double-digit FD points in five consecutive games, including a Week 13 matchup that he left early. The metrics stack up reasonably well, as he's been targeted at a 25 percent clip per route run and has averaged 2.0 yards per target. He stands out on DK as he's cheaper than Puka Nacua ($9,600 DK/$12,000 FD).
The other thing in Olave's favor is that there aren't many peripheral pass-catching options in the Saints' offense. Kamara has the next most targets per route run and targets on the team, but we've covered the problem with his specific matchup. Rashid Shaheed ($7,000 DK/$9,500 FD) is next up in the offense. He's a big-play threat and has three spike weeks this season. Otherwise, he's contributed little on a weekly basis. That makes him an intriguing play on a showdown, but understand he's overpriced based only on his production. Lynn Bowden ($3,000 DK/$6,500 FD) has seemingly surpassed A.T. Perry ($3,200 DK/$6,500 FD) for the third-receiver role. He's played more than half of the team's offensive snaps in four consecutive games, though that's translated to only 12 combined targets.
It's tough to know where to fit Taysom Hill ($6,600 DK/$10,000 FD) into the positional conversation, but for those looking for the one game-changing play on the slate and willing to take on risk, I'd side with him over Shaheed. To conclude the Saints' pass catchers, there are a trio of tight ends that all have a role, though none are particularly valuable from a fantasy perspective. None receive consistent enough targets to make a weekly impact, so opportunity near the goal line is what is important. Juwan Johnson ($4,000 DK/$8,000 FD) leads the position in targets but has only one opportunity inside the 5 this season. Jimmy Graham ($1,600 DK/$6,000 FD) has touchdowns in three consecutive games. He has only seven targets, four of which have come inside the 10. He's a touchdown or a zero. Foster Moreau ($2,000 DK/$5,500 FD) has gotten 21 targets this season, but the production has been empty. The primary draw of the tight ends is that the Rams have been vulnerable to allow catches to tight ends (less so touchdowns), meaning there could be some value on DK.
Mercifully, the Rams are a bit more straightforward. Cooper Kupp ($11,000 DK/$14,500 FD) is back in form. He has touchdowns in three consecutive games and has topped 100 receiving yards in consecutive games. Interestingly, he has one fewer target than the aforementioned Nacua ($9,600 DK/$12,000 FD), but he has topped 100 yards only once in his last seven games with two touchdowns in that span. It's possible he turns in a good performance, but his form has fallen as Kupp's has risen. On the other hand, he's still heavily involved in the offense.
The third receiver role opens a bit more of a conversation. Demarcus Robinson ($5,400 DK/$8,500 FD) has scored in three consecutive weeks, but that's mostly been without Tutu Atwell ($2,800 DK/$7,500 FD). Robinson has also been heavily reliant upon touchdowns for his production. He had started to overtake Atwell for the third receiver role, even before Atwell's one-game absence with a concussion. Robinson likely has the leg up, but he's priced up for his role.
Tyler Higbee ($5,800 DK/$7,500 FD) is involved in the offense but rarely delivers fantasy-relevant scores.
Kicker
Blake Grupe ($4,600 DK/$8,500 FD) has had limited volume for several games in a row. He's made one or fewer field goals in his last seven games, though in the one other, he made six field goals. There are decent value options in this game, so it's a good bet to look elsewhere. Lucas Havrisik ($4,800 DK/$9,000 FD) has unsurprisingly seen his production increase as the Rams' offense has ticked up in recent weeks. He's made multiple field goals in his last three, averaging 10.7 fantasy points in that span. He's a better option than Grupe for those who have interest in rostering a kicker.
Defense/Special Teams
As noted, this game has a relatively high total, which begins to dent the defenses. The bigger problem is that neither unit is particularly aggressive. The Rams ($3,800 DK/$9,500 FD) are tied for 24th in sacks per game and have only 12 takeaways. The Saints ($3,400 DK/$9,000 FD) are better at forcing turnovers but have mostly feasted on poor teams.
