This article is part of our DFS NFL series.
Week 17 is pivotal to both fantasy managers and NFL organizations, but it doesn't kick off with the most thrilling matchup. The Browns will play host to the Jets on Thursday night and are a significant favorite, laying 7.5-points. The total is 34.5 points, giving the Browns an implied team total of 21 points while the Jets are stuck at 13.5. With that context, it's time to deep dive the matchup.
Quarterback
Joe Flacco ($10,600 DK/$16,500 FD) has turned back the clock and put up at least 19.86 FD points in each of his last three games. He's coming off of his most impressive performance on Christmas Eve against the Texans (368-3-2), but unfortunately, the Jets aren't the Texans from a matchup perspective as they've allowed the fewest fantasy points per game to quarterbacks. The Jets have a lot of flaws, but their pass defense isn't one.
Trevor Siemian ($8,800 DK/$13,500 FD) is on the opposite side of the game and is a very palatable price relative to most quarterbacks on showdown slates. He'll start for the second consecutive week but couldn't take advantage of an excellent matchup against the Commanders in Week 16, so there's no reason to expect big numbers against a far superior Browns defense.
Running Back
Breece Hall ($11,000 DK/$15,000 FD) was the fantasy MVP in Week 16, so don't let Siemian scare you from rostering him. Hall is the second-most expensive player on both sites but has a strong chance of scoring the most fantasy points of any player on the slate. That comes with a word of caution, however, as he scored 43.1 DK points and 37.1 FD points in Week 16 based on getting 32 touches against the Commanders. Outside of that performance, he's reached 20 total touches twice this season. Matchup will also be a factor, as the Browns have allowed the 11th fewest fantasy points per game to running backs while the Commanders have given up the fifth-most. Hall is a good play but the chances of him topping 25 DK points is slim (that can be said of all players on this slate).
If active, Israel Abanikanda ($2,200 DK/$7,000 FD) (ankle) appears to have surpassed Dalvin Cook ($2,000 DK/$7,000 FD) on the running back depth chart. Neither is particularly appealing from a fantasy perspective, even at a depressed price.
The Cleveland backfield is more split. Jerome Ford ($8,400 DK/$12,000 FD) is typically the leader of the committee, though his volume is fairly dependent on game script. For example, in the two games the Browns have led comfortably in recent weeks (JAX, HOU) he had 17 and 16 touches, respectively. In two games that were either losses or close wins (LAR, CHI), Ford saw 12 carries in each. The positive news is that he has remained steadily involved as a pass catcher, giving him a slight bump on DK.
Kareem Hunt's ($5,200 DK/$9,500 FD) workload is typically slightly less than that of Ford, particularly as a pass catcher. That dings his value, but he does have the clear goal-line role. He has at least one rushing attempt inside the 5 in eight of his 12 games this season and eight total touchdowns. Pierre Strong ($1,800 DK/$6,500 FD) has been relegated primarily to special teams duties.
Wide Receiver/Tight End
Both teams boast a clear top wide receiver and a productive tight end. In New York, that combination is Garrett Wilson ($9,8000 DK/$11,500 FD) and Tyler Conklin ($5,000 DK/$8,000 FD). Despite the Jets' terrible quarterback situation, Wilson has an exceptional 153 targets and has enough individual talent to overcome his situation most weeks. The Browns' secondary is getting healthier, which is certainly a knock on Wilson's upside, but he has arguably the safest floor of any player in this game. Conklin is in a similar situation. He has at least six targets in each of his last four games. That's resulted in an average of about 35 yards, which isn't particularly inspiring. However, his price is palatable, and if he finds the end zone he's a great value option. The Browns are a tough matchup for tight ends from a points-per-game perspective, but they have allowed six touchdowns to the position this season.
In Cleveland, Amari Cooper ($11,200 DK/$14,500 FD) will be at the top of everyone's mind after his explosive Week 16 performance. However, he appears to be truly questionable with a heel injury and has the aforementioned extremely tough matchup. Even though he's been productive with Joe Flacco under center in recent weeks (13.7, 23.9, 54.5 DK points in his last three games), this doesn't set up to be a great spot for him. That leads us to David Njoku ($7,800 DK/$11,000 FD), who could be the clearest value of the game. Like Cooper, he's seen a spike in production of late with Flacco (24.1, 21.4, and 13.4 FD points in his last three games), and if there's a soft spot in the Jets' defense it's against tight ends.
The Browns have the only potentially intriguing peripheral option in Elijah Moore ($6,600 DK/$8,000 FD). He's been held to less than 20 yards in each of his last two games and has less than six FD points in five of his last six games. The case for Moore is narrative, as he's seeking revenge against the Jets. This was a talking point in the media leading up to the game, but there's no on-paper reason to project him for better production unless Cooper is sidelined. Cedric Tillman ($3,000 DK/$7,5000 FD) has some involvement in the offense and is an OK value, but he's primarily intriguing only if Cooper is out. David Bell ($1,600 DK/$6,500 FD) would be the punt option if the Browns are without their top pass catcher.
The situation behind Wilson and Conklin is dire in New York. Jason Brownlee ($2,800 DK/$7,000 FD) and Xavier Gipson ($3,200 DK/$7,500 FD) are next up in the depth chart. They'd be intriguing with Zach Wilson given their price, but Siemian's ability to make reads beyond Garrett Wilson is of significant question. I'd still prefer either over either Abinakanda or Cook.
Kicker
The kicking situation for both teams is up in the air. Dustin Hopkins is out with a hamstring injury, leaving Riley Patterson ($4,800 DK) as the likely kicker for Cleveland. However, he's only available on DK. Patterson was pretty effective with the Lions before being waived, converting 88.2 percent of his field-goal attempts. There should be some opportunity for him with his new team, though there are a number of value options that have been highlighted by above. Greg Zuerlein ($4,600 DK/$8,500 FD) is available on both DK and FD, but he's questionable with a quad injury. He's been heavily involved in two of the team's last three games (14 and 17 DK points), but there's a risk the Jets just don't score points. If he's out, no alternative kicker available on either site.
Defense/Special Teams
The Browns ($5,600 DK/$10,000 FD) are good at generating pressure and elite at forcing turnovers. They also have the benefit of facing one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. The problem is that they're priced accordingly, but they should generate plenty of fantasy points.
As we've covered, the Jets ($4,000 DK/$9,000 FD) are also a solid unit. They aren't as elite as the Browns in sacks or turnovers forced and Cleveland has the relatively better offense. The price is more palatable, but they're the less intriguing play on paper.
