Sunday Night Football DFS Breakdown: Broncos vs. 49ers

Both teams up for the Week 3 edition of Sunday Night Football consider this matchup a must-win, for different reasons. The 49ers consider it a must-win because they need to assert their footing for a playoff run after an unfortunate and costly first two weeks, and going 1-2 would make it difficult for the 49ers to secure their ambitions. The Broncos – or at least the Broncos head coach anyway – considers this a must-win game because of a generally hot seat following an ugly first two weeks with the team. The over/under is up to 43.5 after opening at 43.0, and after opening as 2.5-point favorites the Broncos are now 1.5-point underdogs.

QUARTERBACKS

It's an intimidating matchup for Russell Wilson ($10800 DK, $16000 FD) as he goes against the feared 49ers defense, and standout receiver Jerry Jeudy might be limited by a shoulder injury he suffered a week ago. Wilson struggled to produce at home against the Texans in Week 2 and in Week 1 he was largely dependent on checkdowns/screens at Seattle. The DeMeco Ryans scheme makes it hard on opposing offenses, so Wilson will need to play the best game of his Denver career to this point for the Broncos to have a shot in this one.

Jimmy Garoppolo ($9000 DK, $15500 FD) arguably projects as well or better than Wilson here, despite the latter being the bigger brand name. Particularly if cornerback Patrick Surtain is limited, the Broncos defense might have trouble matching up with a group of 49ers pass catchers that finally gets back George Kittle. It's a somewhat dangerous spot to travel to Denver, especially early in the year, but the personnel just isn't intimidating considering who Garoppolo has on his side.

RUNNING BACKS

Javonte Williams ($10000 DK, $13500 FD) could really make his mark with a big game here, against one of the league's most intimidating run defenses. Linebacker/general terror Fred Warner might have a specific assignment against Williams in the passing game, but at the same time it doesn't seem like Denver has the pass-catcher depth to go away from Williams in the receiving game. Melvin Gordon ($6200 DK, $10500 FD) is playing well enough off the bench but remains a distant second to Williams' usage through two weeks. Mike Boone ($400 DK, $5000 FD) has played 10 snaps through two weeks.

Jeff Wilson ($8000 DK, $13000 FD) saw a big workload in Week 2 and might see another one here, especially with Tyrion Davis-Price hurt now. Someone else will need to play at running back at some point in the game, but it's not clear whether it will be the undrafted rookie Jordan Mason ($1000 DK, $7000 FD) or practice squad callup Marlon Mack ($1800 DK, $6500 FD) who takes the lead for the RB2 role in San Francisco. Whoever it is could prove useful on this slate – the 49ers tend to pile up the carry count, and Wilson is no world-beater himself.

WIDE RECEIVERS + TIGHT ENDS

Jerry Jeudy ($8200 DK, $11000 FD) is loosely expected to play through his rib/shoulder injury, but his only practice activity this week was a limited showing Friday. The Broncos really need him in this one, but it's not clear how much he can contribute with the injury presumably not all that close to healed. Courtland Sutton ($9400 DK, $12500 FD) is likely in for a substantial workload regardless of Jeudy's status, though for both receivers the matchup could be challenging. It could also be challenging for the Denver offensive line to hold strong, but if they do then Sutton should push for double-digit targets. KJ Hamler ($5000 DK, $8500 FD) is expected to return from the knee issue that kept him out in Week 2, but it's unclear how far along his recovery might be, especially given that he seemingly suffered a slight setback in Week 1. Montrell Washington ($600 DK, $5000 FD) could play 20 more snaps if Jeudy or Hamler are limited, and Washington is also the team's sole returner. Albert Okwuegbunam ($5200 DK, $8000 FD) is one of the most athletic players in the NFL but to this point Nate Hackett has shackled him to the line of scrimmage, wasting one of the prime years of what should be a standout career. If Hackett tries using Okwuegbunam the right way – which is to say the precise opposite of what Hackett has done thus far – then the success should be swift. Success might not be in the cards for Hackett, though. Eric Saubert ($3200 DK, $5000 FD) and Andrew Beck ($1600 DK, $5500 FD) have both seen more dialed-up targets than Okwuegbunam, to the delight of Denver's opponents.

George Kittle ($7400 DK, $10000 FD) is finally ready to make his 2022 debut and the 49ers presumably could not be happier to get him back. There's no reason he should start slowly here. Deebo Samuel ($11400 DK, $15000 FD) is matchup-indifferent with so much of his production earned by simply running over and around nearby defenders, but the Broncos might be at less than full strength at corner with Patrick Surtain managing a shoulder issue. Brandon Aiyuk ($7000 DK, $9500 FD) might have more to gain from any limitations with Surtain, both because Aiyuk isn't quite the brute Samuel is and because Aiyuk is the more likely of the two to draw downfield targets, and Surtain is the only Broncos corner who can shut down that part of the field. Jauan Jennings ($4600 DK, $7500 FD) is often a mismatch against slot corners due to his big frame, and this game could be another such case against the 5-foot-9 K'Waun Williams. Ray-Ray McCloud ($2800 DK, $5500 FD) is a candidate to see around 15 snaps and should otherwise return San Francisco's kickoffs and punts, making him an interesting pairing option with the San Francisco DST. Ross Dwelley ($4800 DK, $6500 FD) is still hanging around at tight end, though he'll have less work to do with Kittle back.

KICKERS

Robbie Gould ($4200 DK, $8500 FD) never had much range and turning 40 soon won't help any, but perhaps this is like when a 15-homer batter gets a series at Coors Field. If the ball carries better than usual then Gould could capitalize, because his accuracy seems most intact. Brandon McManus ($4000 DK, $9000 FD) has scored double-digit fantasy points in both of the first two weeks and could continue to see good field goal volume if the Broncos can make it to the opposing 35-yard line in this game.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The 49ers ($4400 DK, $9500 FD) might be without standout lineman Arik Armstead, but the Broncos offense is beat up too, specifically at receiver. That the game is in Denver probably assures the Broncos some level of protection from the disruptiveness of the 49ers defense, though the Denver offense was less than effective against the Texans in the same venue last week. As long as the 49ers run defense holds up this could be a difficult setting for Wilson, especially if Jeudy can't make his usual contributions. If you pick the 49ers DST you could consider pairing it with McCloud, who's expected to serve as the 49ers' lead kick and punt returner. The Broncos ($3600 DK, $9000 FD) likely have worse personnel than the 49ers defense, and the scheming is certainly worse, but Denver's personnel tends to play a little better at home and Garoppolo is certainly capable of throwing interceptions. Just as McCloud is the assumed returner for the 49ers, Washington should do all of the kick and punt returning for the Broncos.