Ryan Nugent-Hopkins

Power-play success fueled Nugent-Hopkins to a career year of 37 goals and 104 points in 82 contests last season. Thanks to being on the top power-play unit, he racked up 53 of those points with the man advantage and another four shorthanded while bouncing between third-line center and second-line wing for the Oilers. Fantasy managers have to expect significant regression after Nugent-Hopkins shot 18.4 percent last year, by far his highest mark. Looking ahead to the upcoming campaign, Nugent-Hopkins might decline significantly -- he'd never eclipsed 70 points in a season before 2022-23 -- but even a 60-point campaign would make him a solid early-to-mid-round pick. With the Oilers' offense, anything is possible, but he's more of a risk this year than players of comparable skill sets.

Nugent-Hopkins missed 19 games a season ago, but still managed to finish with exactly 50 points, the third time in the past four years he has reached that mark. His 11 goals were his least since the 2012-13 campaign, although Nugent-Hopkins' woeful 7.1 percent shooting percentage suggest there is some positive regression on the way in that category this coming season. RNH's greatest fantasy attribute at this stage of his career is his production with the man advantage. He finished with 23 power-play points a year ago, the fourth straight season he has posted 20-plus. Nugent-Hopkins is more floor than ceiling from a fantasy perspective, but you can do worse in the middle rounds of your upcoming draft.

With a new eight-year contract in tow, Nugent-Hopkins is committed to the Oilers long term. While he may never really live up to his first-overall draft position from 2011, he'll get every possible chance to succeed alongside Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl in 2021-22. Nugent-Hopkins had just 35 points in 52 contests last season, but he'd topped 60 points in each of the two prior campaigns, and that seems like a safe floor for the talented winger if he can stay healthy. He's also typically seen a large role on the power play, which should maintain his scoring pace if things don't click at even strength. Expect the 28-year-old to go in the middle rounds of most fantasy drafts.

Nugent-Hopkins topped the 60-point mark for the second straight year in 2019-20, scoring 22 goals and adding 39 helpers in 65 regular-season games. He would have had a good chance of setting a new career-high output had the season not been cut short. Nugent-Hopkins has essentially guaranteed himself a top-six role going forward, which means he'll most likely be skating on a line with Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid. While the Nuge showed great chemistry with the former during the regular season, his production didn't drop with the latter, either. The 27-year-old Nugent-Hopkins will likely be picked in the early rounds of fantasy drafts, and he should be able to make sizable contributions on the power play regardless of his even-strength assignments.

Nugent-Hopkins' 2018-19 campaign saw him post career highs across the board, finishing with 28 goals, 41 assists and 68 points in total. The 26-year-old averaged 3:15 of power-play ice time in 2018-19, the highest mark of his career, and Nugent-Hopkins was also more effective in his own end compared to past seasons, finishing the 2018-19 season with 40 blocks. When healthy, Nugent-Hopkins is a valuable fantasy commodity, especially when he finds himself logging ice time with Connor McDavid and/or Leon Draisaitl. With that expected to continue, RNH is once again set to be a no-brainer fantasy option in 2019-20.

Nugent-Hopkins is primed for a breakout 2018-19 campaign. Had he played a full 82 games last season and not been bogged down by rib and lower-body injuries, the electrifying playmaker would've had no problem eclipsing his career high in points given that he accrued 24 goals and just as many helpers over 62 contests. Of course, playing alongside generational talent Connor McDavid certainly helped, and since he's projected to reprise that cushy assignment, RNH should remain a no-frills, set-and-forget fantasy opton.

Nugent-Hopkins had a mixed bag of a 2016-17 season -- he saw his role reduced as Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl held the top two center spots with iron grips, and he managed just 43 points, but the 2011 draft’s top pick was able to stay healthy for all 82 games and set a new career high in shots on goal (200) despite a decline in usage both at even strength and on the power play. While that improvement in efficiency is promising, Nuge remains stuck in the No. 3 center role, which limits his fantasy upside entering the 2017-18 campaign; it'll be hard for the 24-year-old to crack 50 points even if he continues enjoying second-unit power-play time. The fact of the matter is, he’s getting paid way too much money ($6 million a year) for the way the Oilers are using him, so it wouldn't be surprising to see him get shipped out of town in the next year or two if they can find a willing taker with a top-six role available.

Nugent-Hopkins already has three 50-point NHL seasons to his name at just 23 years of age, yet he’ll have to fight tooth and nail to win a top-six role over fellow young centers Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. A broken finger limited 2011’s first overall pick to just 55 games in 2015-16, but his 34 points in that span would’ve prorated to yet another 50-point campaign. However, he did see his shot rate fall – after averaging 2.49 shots per game the previous season, RNH wasn’t able to crack even the 2.00 mark last year. If the Oilers finally do make the leap into playoff contention, it’ll likely be in part because Nugent-Hopkins takes a leap of his own. If they don’t, expect yet another season of decent scoring and subpar plus-minus.

Nugent-Hopkins’ game will actually be helped, not hurt, by the arrival of Connor McDavid. Think of it as a 1A/1B situation, at least in the short term. The Oil can now effectively split up its top-heavy forward corps and work with pairs. RNH and Jordan Eberle are a natural fit, and so are McDavid and Taylor Hall. And the trio of RNH, Eberle, and Benoit Pouliot was especially impressive late in 2014-15. Nugent-Hopkins has finally started to fill out that slender frame, and that should help him navigate the rugged Western Conference a little easier. Consistent linemates in a more structured system could deliver career totals in goals and points. Add it all up, and you’ve finally got a guy who deserves to be drafted where he’s been picked in the past.

Nugent-Hopkins will anchor what could be one of the best young lines in hockey (RNH, Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall) this season. That being said, RNH needs to not only stay healthy, but produce from the get-go if that line is to reach its full potential. Despite a wealth of talent, RNH still has yet to score more than 19 goals or record more than 56 points in a season. He won't be drafted among the top 10 centers, but he certainly has the upside to end up there eventually. Just not this year. Sixty points are possible, but a big jump in his production is more likely to come in 2015-16. And only you know where a 55- or 60-point center with a painful plus-minus fits in your format.

RNH was the top pick in the 2011 draft and has yet to fully live up to his billing. He underwent shoulder surgery in April and while he is expected to be 100% healthy prior to training camp, that's the kind of injury that could give fantasy players cause for concern. The good news is that Nugent-Hopkins plays on one of the better lines in the NHL and should produce good fantasy points just by osmosis. But he would benefit by being just a little more selfish and shooting the puck more rather than always trying to dish out helpers to his linemates, Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle. He's not a true number one center yet, but there's still time for that. He'll have a good season and should take a step to the 65-point level.

The future is so bright for Nugent-Hopkins that he should wear shades. The top pick in the 2011 Entry Draft did not disappoint in his rookie season, scoring 18 goals and 52 points. RNH should only get better with experience and has plenty of offensive firepower to play alongside Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall, and possibly even the top overall pick from this season, Nail Yakupov. He is a player to target earlier, rather than later, in fantasy drafts as he will be one of the key players that will lead Edmonton back to respectability.

The first overall pick in this year's draft, Nugent-Hopkins has great vision and will be a tremendous playmaker in time. That time, however, may not be the beginning of this season as he is only 170 pounds and will need to beef up in order to take the pounding that comes along with playing in the NHL. He is a player to remember in dynasty leagues who will be playing on a line with Taylor Hall before long.

Agreed to terms on a three-year, entry-level deal with the Oilers in July 2011.