NFL Schedule Release: Implications for Best Ball Playoffs in Weeks 15-17

The NFL schedule release may seem like an overhyped non-event to the average football fan, but it's become one of the key dates on the league calendar for best ball draft strategy. The schedule can even impact ADPs on platforms like Underdog and DraftKings, where people repeatedly reach on certain pass catchers to complete bring-back stacks for Week 17. 

Below you'll find a breakdown for all three playoff weeks, going in reverse chronological order since Week 17 is still king. The largest tournament on DraftKings has a Week 17 final with 1,089 entries, while the largest on Underdog (Best Ball Mania) has 667 seats.

Before we get to the full breakdown, here's a grid view of the playoff schedule:

All ADP numbers below come from UD's Best Ball Mania in the first half of May.

Week 17

Week 17 Matchups (sorted by projected over/under)

• 1. Baltimore Ravens @ Cincinnati Bengals

I like to avoid the most obvious bring-back pairings, because some of the potential value (or even all of it) is given right back if we're drafting a combo of players that's commonly found on a lot of teams*. 

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One example this year: Bengals WR Tee Higgins (35.5) + Ravens WR Zay Flowers (ADP 38.9). Teams drafting from late position will take Higgins and Flowers at the 3-4 turn, with a decent shot to then get either Lamar Jackson (53.5) or Joe Burrow (62.4) the next time around. 

A less-obvious combo can be just as powerful, e.g., WR Ja'Marr Chase (3.4) + QB Lamar Jackson (53.5) + TE Mark Andrews (131.8). Both teams also have functional end-game picks — RB Samaje Perine, RB Justice Hill, TE Mike Gesicki, WR Elijah Sarratt, etc.

*There's value in having less-common pairings, because it helps with lineup uniqueness / player ownership relative to the field during the playoffs.

• 2. Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

WR Amon-Ra St. Brown (ADP 8.0) will often be paired with Luther Burden (42.8) and/or Colston Loveland (46.6). But that may not impact ADPs for the Bears much, at least initially, because people who draft ARSB in the mid-to-late 1st will usually have a shot at Burden and/or Loveland in early-to-mid Round 4 (without needing to reach in Round 3).

That said, I'd bet on Loveland and Burden both moving up some for other reasons, into/around the top 40, which could then create pressure for those ARSB teams to reach for Loveland/Burden in Round 3... which in turn drives the ADP up more.

Or not. ARSB drafters who want a bring-back play also have a shot at WR Rome Odunze (57.2) in Round 5. The presence of three good options reduces the incentive to reach ahead of ADP for any one of them, right?

• 3. Washington Commanders @ Jacksonville Jaguars

It's been hard to line up WR Terry McLaurin (50.7) and QB Jayden Daniels (65.6) on the same team recently, but both are targets of mine at their current ADPs, and the Jacksonville side of this game offers a slew of options between Round 6 and Round 10.

For a QB-heavy build, I like Daniels and WR Brian Thomas (65.0) around the 5-6 turn, followed by QB Trevor Lawrence (85.7) at the 7-8 turn. WR Antonio Williams and TE Chig Okonkwo then provide cheap pass catchers from the Washington side.

• 4. New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

WR Malik Nabers (knee) is falling out of the second round after suboptimal offseason updates on his rehab and second surgery. This matchup could mitigate his slide, however, with some people targeting Nabers and WR George Pickens (25.3) at the 2-3 turn. Those teams will usually have the option of QB Dak Prescott (77.8) at the 6-7 turn, with a reach for QB Jaxson Dart (89.3) in Round 7 also an option.

Another way to play it: hope Nabers' ADP keeps falling until he's often available late in Round 3 for teams that took CeeDee Lamb in Round 1. The Lamb-Nabers combo isn't one we've seen much of so far, and it could be short-lived as a frequent play if reports on Nabers are more positive later this summer.

• 5. New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

This game will be played in a dome between two rivals with top-heavy offenses and mediocre-looking defenses. We know who both teams want to get the ball to, and recent ADPs make it easy to get WR Drake London (ADP 20.4) in the middle of Round 2 and then WR Chris Olave (34.4) in the middle of Round 3. The already-popular pairing will now be picked together even more often, so I may try to pivot with WR Jordyn Tyson (63.2) or TE Kyle Pitts (102.6). It's too bad the QBs on these teams don't inspire more confidence.

• 6. Los Angeles Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Teams that draft WR Puka Nacua (ADP 4.1) in early-to-mid Round 1 will either have to reach for WR Emeka Egbuka (40.3) in Round 3 or hope he falls to Round 4. I think Egbuka was destined to move up somewhat anyway, and the Week 17 factor could push him all the way into Round 4 before long. Nacua teams will also sometimes have a shot at WR Chris Godwin (91.9) in mid-to-late Round 8.

• 7. Los Angeles Chargers @ Kansas City Chiefs 

Teams that take WR Rashee Rice (20.1) in the middle of Round 2 have been about 50/50 to have a shot at WR Ladd McConkey (41.6), but I suspect it'll soon require picks in early R2 and early R4. QB Justin Herbert (86.6) will then often be available in late Round 7 or early Round 8.

I respect both defenses in this game, but the Herbert-Rice-McConkey stack feels like a good play for both Week 17 and the season in general, offering huge upside if Rice stays out of trouble and Mike McDaniel thrives with the Chargers.

• 8. Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers

I don't really think there's a positive fantasy-scoring correlation for guys on opposing teams when they're as ball-dominant as Christian McCaffrey (ADP 7.2) and Saquon Barkley (14.4), but that won't necessarily stop other people from trying to pair the two. It isn't usually doable, however, with Barkley closer to the 1-2 turn than mid-Round 2 these days.

Not long after, things line up nicely for teams that draft WR DeVonta Smith (31.3) in Round 3 to have a shot at Mike Evans (45.6) in Round 4. Based on current ADPs, this stack is easiest to pull off from early-to-middle position (picks 3-6) when Smith is available at/below ADP. QB Jalen Hurts conveniently goes almost exactly two rounds after Evans, at ADP 68.3.

Teams drafting from early position also line up for the popular 8-9 turn play of QB Brock Purdy (97.3) and WR Ricky Pearsall (98.0).

• 9. Las Vegas Raiders @ Arizona Cardinals

TE Brock Bowers (ADP 21.9) usually goes before the 2-3 turn, but there should be occasional chances there to draft Bowers and Week 17 opponent Jeremiyah Love (22.8)... or Bowers and fellow tight end Trey McBride (24.6).

The difficulty of drafting Bowers with one of the Cardinals means we'll see a bunch of Arizona stacks that use Jalen Nailor or Tre Tucker as the bring-back (Vegas doesn't have anybody going between Round 3 and Round 14 right now).

• 10. Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins

I haven't been targeting pass catchers from either of these teams, but you can definitely talk me into pairing RB De'Von Achane (13.9) with QB Josh Allen (29.8) when both fall a bit below ADP. WR DJ Moore (52.5) is overpriced even after losing some of his prior ADP gains, but Khalil Shakir (127.6) is a solid choice much later. Why are people so sure that Moore is better than Shakir at this stage of their respective careers?

• 11. Minnesota Vikings @ New York Jets

Teams that draft WR Justin Jefferson (ADP 9.6) late in Round 1 will usually be able to get WR Garrett Wilson (38.3) late in Round 3, or even early in Round 4. It's an obvious/expensive combination, even in a game that sounds unexciting, so I'll probably steer clear for the most part. I'd rather go a bit cheaper with WR Jordan Addison (80.0) instead of JJ.

• 12. Denver Broncos @ New England Patriots

This projects as somewhat low-scoring due to good defenses, not bad offenses, but I still find myself shying away from this game. I haven't drafted many shares of pass-game players from these teams in general, apart from A.J. Brown* pre-draft when he wasn't in the top 30.

*Technically not a Patriot, I know.

• 13. Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

I'm a big fan of WR Jalen Coker (129.7), QB Sam Darnold (135.0) and WR Tory Horton (210.8) at their respective ADPs, especially in half-PPR scoring on Underdog where the guys who depend on TDs and deep balls aren't at as much of a disadvantage relative to higher-volume, lower-aDOT WRs. 

Teams drafting from early position in Best Ball Mania should sometimes have a shot to grab both Coker and Darnold around the 11-12 turn. Horton is then available in Round 17 or 18, usually. Plus, the Seahawks have TE AJ Barner (168.6) as an option two rounds after Darnold. On DraftKings, you might be able to sneak Rashid Shaheed in there after Darnold as well.

• 14. Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers 

The No. 14 ranking here is out of respect for both defenses — OK, mostly Houston's — and the added risk of bad weather (and/or run-heavy gameplans) at Lambeau Field in early January. I nonetheless see sneaky potential here, as both QBs/offenses tend to look downfield when they throw. 

QB Jordan Love (107.0) and WR Matthew Golden (109.8) have been a popular pairing at the 9-10 turn, but that unfortunately doesn't line up with most teams that take Nico Collins (25.9) or Jayden Higgins (124.0).

Note: Those of you who still believe in Santa Claus will want to note that Texans-Packers is scheduled as the magical MNF game for Week 17.

• 15. Pittsburgh Steelers @ Tennessee Titans

This just sounds boring, but it's not like we have to pay premium prices — there's not a single player from either of these teams with a top-60 ADP. WR Carnell Tate (60.5) is awfully close, and I do think on the other side there's some sneaky fantasy potential for guys like Michael Pittman (108.6) and Pat Freiermuth (195.9). A team with Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers is a "threat" to rank near the top of the league in short pass attempts. The Titans, meanwhile, are a sort-of-popular pick to be 2026's breakout offense. In any case, ADPs here are all so low that it's easy to line up Titans-Steelers stacks from any draft position.

• 16. Indianapolis Colts @ Cleveland Browns

Late-season games in Cleveland carry huge risk of wind/weather impact, not to mention the Browns' horrible QB play (and solid defense) having a downward effect on scoring. That said, it could be the type of game where RB Jonathan Taylor (ADP 6.8) pushes for 30 carries. Taylor faces the Titans in Week 15 and the Bengals in Week 16, so he should be busy when it matters most if he stays healthy and the Colts stay competitive.

Favorite Stacks (W17)

WR Terry McLaurin (50.7) + WR Parker Washington (74.3) + QB Trevor Lawrence (85.7)

WR Jalen Coker (129.7) + QB Sam Darnold (135.0) + WR Tory Horton (210.8)

WR Rashee Rice (20.1) + WR Ladd McConkey (41.6) + QB Justin Herbert (86.6)

Potential ADP Impacts (W17)

• WR Garrett Wilson (38.0) ⬆️ 
  • JJ drafters (Round 1) may drive Wilson into Round 3 more often rather than going early in Round 4.
• WR Tetairoa McMillan (33.7) ⬆️ 
  • McMillan has often lasted until late Round 3, but we'll now see more JSN drafters from middle position targeting Carolina's No. 1 wideout in the middle of Round 3.

Week 16

Week 16 Matchups (sorted by projected over/under)

1. Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts
2. Jacksonville Jaguars @  Dallas Cowboys
3. New York Giants @ Detroit Lions
4. Los Angeles Rams @ Seattle Seahawks
5. San Francisco 49ers @ Kansas City Chiefs
6. Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7. Washington Commanders @ Minnesota Vikings
8. Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
9. Arizona Cardinals @ New Orleans Saints
10. Los Angeles Chargers @ Miami Dolphins
11. Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos
12. Tennessee Titans @ Las Vegas Raiders
13. New England Patriots @ New York Jets
14. Cleveland Browns @ Baltimore Ravens
15. Houston Texans @ Philadelphia Eagles
16. Carolina Panthers @ Pittsburgh Steelers 

I think bring-back stacks are probably overrated for Week 17 and not really worth considering for Weeks 15-16. However, it's always good to look at how things line up for a player/team in general during the fantasy playoffs.

The Browns, for example, are scheduled for a trio of outdoor games (at NYG, at BAL, vs. IND) in which they'd currently be considerable underdogs. The Cardinals, on the other hand, are scheduled to play indoors in Weeks 15-17, facing teams (Jets, Saints, Raiders) that may not be much better than Arizona.

The huge number of division games during fantasy playoffs create a generally favorable outlook for the NFC South, where two teams play indoors and the other two play in cities where harsh winter weather is rare.

Week 15

Week 15 Matchups (sorted by projected over/under)

1. San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Chargers
2. Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams
3. Cincinnati Bengals @ Carolina Panthers
4. Chicago Bears @ Buffalo Bills
5. Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders
6. Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
7. New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
8. Seattle Seahawks @ Philadelphia Eagles
9. New England Patriots @ Kansas City Chiefs
10. Cleveland Browns @ New York Giants
11. Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans
12. Miami Dolphins @ Green Bay Packers
13. Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
14. Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans
15. New York Jets @ Arizona Cardinals
16. Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders

Spamming NFC South players really feels like a viable strategy to maximize upside in Weeks 15-17. The problem is that you end up with a team full of guys who have shaky QB play and high risk of team-wide offensive implosion in general.