Matt Chapman

Despite finishing second behind Aaron Judge in Statcast hard-hit rate and ranking in the 98th percentile in barrel rate, Chapman was only 10% better than league average by wRC+ in 2023, a step backward from his first season in Toronto. He managed a modest 17 homers and a .424 SLG in 581 plate appearances. The third baseman limped to the finish line with a .663 OPS in his final 52 games around a stint on the injured list with a right middle finger sprain. That issue aside, Chapman has been remarkably healthy throughout his career, exceeding 600 PA in each of the last four full seasons prior to last year. Barring significant changes in the batter's box, Chapman seems destined to fan at an elevated rate pushing 30%, and those swing-and-miss issues will likely continue to temper his production. That said, Chapman's defense is holding up well and he's just entering his age-31 season. His playing time will be locked in no matter where he ends up in free agency.

2022 was a mixed bag of fantasy success for Chapman. He made the adjustment from Oakland to Toronto, and an eight-percentage point reduction in his strikeout rate helped him raise his batting average 19 points last season. Yet, he still hit 14 points below the league average and simply replicated his home run total from the previous season when many were expecting a Rogers Centre boost to his homers away from O.co Coliseum. On the plus side, he once again avoided the IL as he has done for three of the past four seasons but even hitting .250 in a season appears to be a distant memory for him as he has not done so now in four seasons. He still makes excellent hard contact and could potentially benefit from the new shifting rules as his wOBA against the shift fell 103 points when he changed divisions. It would be foolish to expect a full rebound in that area as a well-positioned second baseman next to the bag still has a fighter's chance of stopping anything up the middle. He would hit higher in a less talented lineup as he did in Oakland, but that is not likely to happen in Toronto in 2023.

Chapman missed the second half of the abbreviated 2020 season after undergoing surgery to repair a torn hip labrum. While he continued to flourish defensively in 2021 -- he took home his third Rawlings Gold Glove at the hot corner -- his struggles on the other side of the ball make it hard to not wonder if he was still experiencing discomfort in his hip. After seeing his K% drop in both 2018 and 2019, Chapman endured ugly swing-and-miss numbers for the second year in a row. His 202 strikeouts set an Athletics franchise record and left him behind only Joey Gallo for the major-league lead. Despite his struggles making contact, however, Chapman was still able to log 27 home runs and a career-high 80 walks while slashing .210/.314/.403. Fantasy owners can expect the 28-year-old's elite defense to keep him in the lineup everyday, and if he's able to cut down substantially on his strikeout numbers, Chapman still possesses an offensive ceiling that could be worth taking a flyer on in 2022.

If defense was a category in standard mixed leagues, Chapman could be a top-20 selection. Even without the glove, there is so much to like about him at the plate. He does not hit for a high average, but when he puts a ball in play, it comes off his bat hot. His batted-ball metrics in 2020 were near the top of the league in terms of hard contact, but something was off. His strikeout rate had improved every season from 2017-2019, but it spiked in 2020 in a big way, jumping from 21.9% to 35.5%. That, coupled with a plunge in his walk rate, showed something was not right, and then we learned Chapman was going to shut it down early to have hip labrum surgery in September. Players who recently had the same surgery include Troy Tulowitzki (2014), Mark Canha (2016), Nick Ahmed (2016) and Buster Posey (2018). Check out their subsequent seasons as you decide where you want to draft Chapman in 2021.

Chapman burnished his reputation as one of the sport's top two-way talents in 2019, popping 36 homers and claiming his second Platinum Glove. The 26-year-old may have already reached his peak defensively, but fortunately for fantasy purposes, there's reason to think his best is yet to come on the offensive side. Though Chapman took steps forward in terms of isolated power (.257) and plate discipline (career-best 21.9 K% and 11.1 BB%), a 29-point drop in batting average from 2018 kept him from being a top-10 fantasy option at the loaded third-base position. Chapman's elite exit velocity and hard-hit rate offer hope for a turnaround in BABIP, but he'll still likely need to trade more groundballs for line drives before he becomes a trusted annual batting-average asset. Even if that never comes to fruition, Chapman's plate skills as is make him eminently valuable and give him a high floor in three categories.

One of the league's best defenders, Chapman built on the offensive skills he teased during his 84-game big-league debut in 2017, increasing his batting average, OBP and SLG all by at least 30 points. He cut his K% from 28.2 to 23.7 and maintained a walk rate above 9%. While hitting second for his final 57 games of the season, he rolled to the tune of a .294/.354/.563 line over 254 plate appearances. Chapman held several prominent spots on the 2018 Statcast leaderboards, highlighted by an eighth-place finish in average exit velocity (93.0 mph). He underwent left thumb surgery in October and shoulder surgery in December, but the expectation is that he will be fine for spring training. As long as his March tune-ups look normal, Chapman should end up a bargain in mixed leagues, but expect the price to climb in AL-only, where playing time with Chapman's stability will command a surcharge.

Many of the skills that Chapman showcased in Oakland's farm system were on display during his first year in the majors. He was solid defensively, helping turn 34 double plays, ranking fourth among American League third basemen. The power translated, as Chapman finished the year with 14 home runs, 23 doubles and two triples (.472 slugging percentage) in just over a half-season's worth of games (84). He also walked at a strong 9.8 percent clip. Strikeouts hindered what could have been a great showing; Chapman struck out in 28.2 percent of his plate appearances, which was in line with what he'd done at Double-A Midland and Triple-A Sacramento where his K-rates always hung around the 30.0 percent mark. His defensive ability should keep Chapman at the hot corner close to every day in 2018. It'd be nice to see him cut down on strikeouts, but there's enough here already to like Chapman as a low-cost corner infield option.

Chapman has done almost all of his damage at Stockton, a park notorious for artificially boosting the stock of hitting prospects, and Midland, which also favors hitters. He sold out for power at Double-A, posting a 29.2 percent strikeout rate, and was even more power-hungry after a brief promotion to Triple-A, notching just a 101 wRC+ despite hitting seven home runs in 18 games. This is not the first time an A's hitting prospect has boosted their stock at High-A and Double-A, but Renato Nunez and Matt Olson, for instance, are younger, have reached the big leagues, and have shown the ability to make contact at an acceptable clip in the upper levels of the minors. Chapman has more raw power than those two, but he may also have the worst hit tool of the three. Unless he can close some of the holes in his swing, Chapman seems destined to occupy the short side of a platoon. With Ryon Healy's emergence, that may come in right field or at DH.

Chapman was the A's first-round selection in 2014, and that pick started paying dividends in 2015, as he slugged 23 homers at High-A Stockton in only 304 at-bats. Chapman greatly improved his walk rate from 3.5% in 2014 to 11.1% in 2015 while keeping his strikeouts stable. His ISO of .316 was extremely promising and most scouting reports rave about his raw power. Chapman projects to be a solid third baseman on defense and possesses a gigantic arm — he actually pitched at Cal State Fullerton and threw in the mid-90s. He was scheduled to play in the 2015 Arizona Fall League, but a lingering wrist injury caused him to skip it. Assuming the wrist is healed by the spring, Chapman will probably begin the season in Double-A with his likely debut in Oakland coming in 2017.

Chapman was the A's first-round pick in 2014 out of Cal State Fullerton. The third baseman received 207 professional at-bats in 2014, mostly at Low-A Beloit, where he hit only .246 with five homers. His plate discipline still needs to be refined, as he struck out 47 times in 2014 while only walking eight times. There was some concern about the amount of swing-and-miss in Chapman's approach entering the draft, but he could become a good right-handed bat in time. If Chapman fails to stick as a position player, he could eventually surface as a late-inning reliever, as he touches 98 mph with his fastball. As a position player, Chapman profiles as a gap power hitter with solid bat speed and a cannon of an arm at the hot corner. He could move through the system reasonably quickly if he puts the contact concerns to rest, and the A's are likely to assign him to High-A Stockton to begin 2015.