Best Ball ADP Arbitrage Report: Why Brock Bowers is a Must on DraftKings

RotoWire's Jerry Donabedian compares ADPs from Underdog and Drafters to those from DraftKings, finding that TE Brock Bowers, WR Malik Nabers and WR Josh Downs are among the top values on DK.
Best Ball ADP Arbitrage Report: Why Brock Bowers is a Must on DraftKings

NFL best ball enthusiasts often use words like 'portfolio', 'exposure' and 'shares', at times sounding like an eight-year-old's impersonation of a businessman. Unfortunately, 'arbitrage' has yet to enter the lexicon, even though it's a fancy-sounding name for a simple idea (taking advantage of price differences for similar/identical goods in different places/markets).

In a best ball ADP context, 'arbitrage' means exploiting ADP discrepancies for the same player(s) on different platforms. If Player X is a 12th-round pick on Underdog and a 13th-round pick on DraftKings, we should take him on DK — where he's cheaper — for the most part.

You may now feel an urge to stop me and point out that differences in tournament structures and scoring systems often explain ADP gaps between platforms. That's true, sometimes, but there are also a surprising number of cases where the discrepancies actually go in the opposite direction of what reasonable strategy suggests. 

I found multiple such cases in last week's Underdog ADP Arbitrage Report, including Giants WR Malik Nabers (cheaper on full-PPR sites) and Lions RB Isiah Pacheco (more expensive for full PPR). Nabers, who we'll discuss again below, is perhaps the most glaring example. A career average of 6.7 catches per game makes him most valuable in full-PPR formats, and yet half-PPR Underdog is where we have to pay a premium for him (ADP 25.0 vs. 31.8 on DK). This is useful information even for people who only draft on one platform, as it provides an idea about whether one is gaining or giving value relative to the broader market.

Now it's time for our deep dive on DraftKings, comparing NFL best ball ADPs from June 1 against those from Underdog and Drafters. The inclusion of a third platform, while not strictly necessary, provides useful context when poring over the data. If it's just the data you're looking for, you'll find a full chart at the bottom of the article comparing ADPs from DraftKings, Underdog and Drafters.

            

Undervalued on DraftKings

          

This may not look like anything at first glance, but the similar ADPs listed above actually make Bowers a relative value on DK, where the other tight ends tend to go earlier (full-PPR scoring also helps Bowers' case). After Bowers, each of the next 12 TEs has an earlier ADP on DraftKings than on the other two sites (as seen in the table below). If we simply draft Bowers in the mid-to-late second round, we can avoid the TE pricing problem entirely and then focus on hunting for all of the RB/WR value that's available on DraftKings in Rounds 3-10.

TeamNameDK ADPDKΔUD ADPDr ADP
LVBrock Bowers19.6-0.419.818.6
ARITrey McBride21.82.225.522.4
CHIColston Loveland40.93.746.442.8
INDTyler Warren61.66.366.869.1
GBTucker Kraft79.54.881.487.1
CLEHarold Fannin84.18.093.790.5
DETSam LaPorta91.53.997.393.5
ATLKyle Pitts92.511.3104.2103.4
SFGeorge Kittle106.012.5118.8118.1
BUFDalton Kincaid111.817.3129.8128.4
KCTravis Kelce116.62.8121.1117.8
NYGIsaiah Likely123.87.0132.6129
PHIDallas Goedert125.65.8135.5127.4

          

I discussed Nabers when we did this same exercise for Underdog, noting the surprise of his price being cheaper on full-PPR sites. On Drafters, with a cumulative points formats, it's a huge concern if he misses the start of the season. On DraftKings, we care way less because there's so much emphasis on Weeks 15-17. DraftKings also has 100-yard bonuses and full-PPR scoring as factors in Nabers' favor (as opposed to the larger emphasis on TDs on Underdog).

Giants QB Jaxson Dart (ADP 96.9) also comes relatively cheap on DK, setting us up nicely for a Dart-Nabers stack. Here are some other favorably priced stacks on DraftKings that stand out:

QB Trevor Lawrence (86.7) + WR Brian Thomas (73.5)

QB Justin Herbert (83.9) + WR Tre' Harris (198.3)

QB Jordan Love + WR Matthew Golden (115.3)

         

  • WR Josh DownsDK: 107.2  /  UD: 98.9  /  DR: 97.4

Downs has gone from underrated to overrated to underrated, and it might not be long before he's overrated again. Either way, DraftKings is where he's most valuable and also where he's cheapest. The low-aDOT profile is less attractive on Underdog, and the perceived lack of ceiling makes Downs less attractive on Drafters. He works perfectly on DraftKings, where all we need is a solid season with a well-timed blowup game (or two).

       

Flournoy is one of the few No. 3 receivers league-wide with a chance to run 400-plus routes even if there's no injury ahead of him on the depth chart. The Cowboys still rely on three-wide formations far more than multi-TE looks, and Flournoy played well enough in the second half of last season to enter camp without real competition. It was a small sample with some good luck involved, but he also genuinely played well and didn't flub his opportunities.

It's cheaper than I would've thought to stack Flournoy, CeeDee Lamb (ADP 10.7) and QB Dak Prescott (75.7) on DraftKings.

             

Others (Undervalued)

I can't say I love any of these picks besides Brian Thomas and Jordan Addison, but they're all guys who I at least view as draftable at the DK price, if not the UD/Drafters prices.

        

Overvalued on DraftKings

                

  • RB James Cook DK: 10.4  /  UD: 11.0 /  DR: 11.8

Cook caught just 32 and 33 passes the past two years, making him one of the more obvious examples of a top fantasy asset who loses a bit of value with the switch from half PPR (Underdog) to full PPR. And yet, he's most expensive on DraftKings, going slightly ahead of CeeDee Lamb, whose ADP is solidly ahead of Cook's on the other two sites. Nothing against Cook, who is one of the safest picks on the board, but I'd rather roll with Lamb and/or Ashton Jeanty at the 1-2 turn. Gotta live a little.

        

  • QB Josh Allen DK: 24.6  /  UD: 30.5  /  DR: 33.0

I'm not trying to pick on the Bills here; it's helpful for fantasy when we can predictably project nearly all of the team's TDs to involve either Allen or Cook. The problem is that we're expected to pay a premium, even though DraftKings' full-PPR scoring with 300-yard passing bonuses isn't necessarily the format where I'd prioritize an elite dual-threat QB. Others on DraftKings disagree, taking Allen a half-round earlier than where he goes on other sites.

It is generally true that QBs go earlier on DK, but the trend isn't as consistent as that with TEs, i.e., it's easier to find value at QB in the early-to-middle rounds. Allen isn't a bad third-round pick; I just don't see much reason to reach for him at the 2-3 turn on DK when I can instead take Justin Herbert or Trevor Lawrence at market price.

TeamNameDK ADPDKΔUD ADP
BUFJosh Allen24.67.230.5
BALLamar Jackson50.84.355.7
CINJoe Burrow56.77.663.9
NEDrake Maye67.92.571.3
WASJayden Daniels68.5-2.366.3
CHICaleb Williams69.31.070.4
PHIJalen Hurts75.4-4.569.7
DALDak Prescott75.73.678.4
LACJustin Herbert83.9-1.483.1
JAXTrevor Lawrence86.7-2.586.7
LARMatthew Stafford89.312.7104.2
KCPatrick Mahomes92.6-0.691.9

             

Williams handles passing downs for the Rams, but their offense hasn't produced many RB targets since Todd Gurley's prime, instead sending most of the short throws to WRs and TEs. With just 36, 34 and 32 catches over the past three seasons, Williams is a clear example of a RB who should be more valuable for half-PPR scoring than for full PPR. And yet, his DraftKings AP is five picks ahead of his Underdog ADP. Long story short, I'll draft Williams on Underdog, or not at all.

        

  • WR Emeka Egbuka DK: 33.0  /  UD: 39.4  /  DR: 40.6 

There's always plenty of WR value on DraftKings when we do these cross-site comparisons. Knowing that, it's even harder to justify Egbuka at his inflated DK price. He's one of the players in that range who could realistically smash his ADP if things break right, but I don't like making these bets at the highest possible price.

In any case, the high-risk, high-reward profiles tend to play best on Drafters, which also happens to be a full-PPR site — and where Egbuka's ADP is latest (40.6). It's nice when those things all line up, no?

                        

Others (Overvalued)

I'd sooner call Olave a good pick on Underdog than a bad one on DraftKings, but the half-round gap is still noteworthy, especially when there's also a smaller gap between the DK price and the Drafters one.

Charbonnet is someone I don't want anywhere, coming off ACL surgery in late February. He's the worst pick on the board on DK outside of the top 150.

              

Full ADP Chart

  • Players listed in bold and green = Earlier ADP on DraftKings / better value
  • Players listed in italics and red = Later ADP on DraftKings / worse value

First two columns after the name show DK ADP and DK price differential. The other four columns are for the other sites - to be discussed in more detail in future articles.

   DK ADPDKΔUD ADPDr ADP
ATLRBBijan Robinson1.60.21.52
DETRBJahmyr Gibbs1.7-0.31.61.2
CINWRJa'Marr Chase3.10.03.13.1
LARWRPuka Nacua4.0-0.14.13.8
SEAWRJaxon Smith-Njigba5.4-0.25.25.2
SFRBChristian McCaffrey6.20.57.26.2
INDRBJonathan Taylor7.8-0.26.88.3
DETWRAmon-Ra St. Brown8.0-0.57.87.2
MINWRJustin Jefferson9.00.49.89.1
BUFRBJames Cook10.41.01111.8
DALWRCeeDee Lamb10.7-1.19.49.9
LVRBAshton Jeanty12.3-1.111.610.9
MIARBDe'Von Achane15.4-1.714.113.4
PHIRBSaquon Barkley13.50.814.314.3
KCRBKenneth Walker15.70.516.615.8
ATLWRDrake London16.71.21916.8
LACRBOmarion Hampton17.1-0.715.617.2
CINRBChase Brown17.8-0.617.716.7
BALRBDerrick Henry19.4-0.91720
LVTEBrock Bowers19.6-0.419.818.6
ARITETrey McBride21.82.225.522.4
DALWRGeorge Pickens22.60.922.624.5
HOUWRNico Collins23.3-1.123.221.2
BUFQBJosh Allen24.67.230.533
ARIRBJeremiyah Love25.3-2.421.824
NOWRChris Olave25.54.231.627.8
PHIWRA.J. Brown27.3-2.525.823.8
GBRBJosh Jacobs43.3-14.63126.4
KCWRRashee Rice30.6-1.329.828.8
NYGWRMalik Nabers31.8-4.02530.7
LARRBKyren Williams28.94.933.434.2
PHIWRDeVonta Smith31.7-0.631.630.5
NYJRBBreece Hall30.8-2.028.229.5
NORBTravis Etienne33.3-2.73031.2
CINWRTee Higgins35.70.334.937.1
TBWREmeka Egbuka33.07.039.440.6
CARWRTetairoa McMillan40.7-2.937.138.5
BALWRZay Flowers36.6-0.836.834.8
DALRBJavonte Williams37.8-0.635.239.2
LACWRLadd McConkey37.32.140.538.3
NYJWRGarrett Wilson40.0-3.33934.5
CHITEColston Loveland40.93.746.442.8
BUFWRDJ Moore43.45.453.643.9
NYGRBCam Skattebo44.5-1.04344
LARWRDavante Adams46.32.251.745.3
CHIWRLuther Burden44.50.543.646.4
DENWRJaylen Waddle49.30.350.149
WASWRTerry McLaurin46.51.449.846
TBRBBucky Irving54.5-5.947.350
BALQBLamar Jackson50.84.355.754.5
DETWRJameson Williams50.9-1.547.950.9
CLERBQuinshon Judkins52.33.354.656.5
HOURBDavid Montgomery53.6-3.449.151.4
SFWRMike Evans53.1-3.045.155.1
CHIRBD'Andre Swift54.3-2.752.350.9
CHIWRRome Odunze55.00.956.255.5
CINQBJoe Burrow56.77.663.964.7
NERBTreVeyon Henderson58.0-6.548.354.8
GBWRChristian Watson58.1-1.459.254.2
SEARBJadarian Price59.2-0.357.860.1
INDTETyler Warren61.66.366.869.1
TENWRCarnell Tate62.1-1.760.460.5
JAXRBBhayshul Tuten64.1-4.160.359.6
NOWRJordyn Tyson66.7-4.062.962.6
ARIWRMarvin Harrison66.0-0.567.263.7
NEQBDrake Maye67.92.571.369.5
JAXWRParker Washington64.16.773.867.8
WASQBJayden Daniels68.5-2.366.366
CARRBChuba Hubbard70.9-3.368.366.9
CHIQBCaleb Williams69.31.070.470.2
INDWRAlec Pierce71.91.271.774.4
JAXWRBrian Thomas73.5-6.364.570
PITWRDK Metcalf73.11.976.473.5
PHIQBJalen Hurts75.4-4.569.772.2
DALQBDak Prescott75.73.678.480.1
DENRBRJ Harvey77.37.584.884.7
NERBRhamondre Stevenson76.2-2.874.972
PHIWRMakai Lemon80.5-4.672.479.4
TENRBTony Pollard79.2-3.377.174.8
GBTETucker Kraft79.54.881.487.1
ARIWRMichael Wilson81.86.88988.2
DENWRCourtland Sutton82.30.881.484.8
CLETEHarold Fannin84.18.093.790.5
PITRBJaylen Warren83.3-4.978.878
JAXQBTrevor Lawrence86.7-2.586.781.7
LACQBJustin Herbert83.9-1.483.181.9
TBWRChris Godwin87.8-3.288.980.3
DETTESam LaPorta91.53.997.393.5
LARQBMatthew Stafford89.312.7104.299.8
KCQBPatrick Mahomes92.6-0.691.992
GBWRJayden Reed90.3-7.882.382.7
PITRBRico Dowdle91.1-3.987.387.1
ATLTEKyle Pitts92.511.3104.2103.4
NYGQBJaxson Dart96.9-4.492.792.3
CHIRBKyle Monangai95.1-1.090.697.6
MINWRJordan Addison95.6-6.385.892.8
LACWRQuentin Johnston95.1-3.793.189.8
SFQBBrock Purdy99.4-2.597.996
JAXWRJakobi Meyers101.3-3.597.498.3
LARRBBlake Corum100.5-1.595.1102.9
DETQBJared Goff103.51.7105.1105.2
SFTEGeorge Kittle106.012.5118.8118.1
TENWRWan'Dale Robinson104.410.6117.9112.1
PITWRMichael Pittman102.30.210698.9
DENQBBo Nix108.6-4.9102.3105.1
SFWRRicky Pearsall106.7-4.9101.2102.5
MINQBKyler Murray109.0-0.8107.5108.8
DENRBJ.K. Dobbins110.2-4.5103.1108.4
INDWRJosh Downs107.2-9.198.997.4
GBQBJordan Love111.0-2.3109.3108
BUFTEDalton Kincaid111.817.3129.8128.4
TBRBKenneth Gainwell101.44.6112100.1
KCWRXavier Worthy112.0-8.1102.8105.1
NOQBTyler Shough114.6-2.2113111.8
KCTETravis Kelce116.62.8121.1117.8
NEWRRomeo Doubs116.6-0.6114.4117.5
WASRBJacory Croskey-Merritt120.30.2115.9125.1
GBWRMatthew Golden115.3-5.3108.6111.4
TBQBBaker Mayfield119.0-3.3116.2115.3
MINRBAaron Jones121.5-2.3120.3118.2
CARRBJonathon Brooks113.54.9118.1118.8
JAXRBChris Rodriguez122.6-10.2111.6113.2
CLEWRKC Concepcion125.1-7.0116.3119.9
BUFWRKhalil Shakir122.73.1128.4123.1
PHITEDallas Goedert125.65.8135.5127.4
NYGTEIsaiah Likely123.87.0132.6129
DALTEJake Ferguson127.01.8126.1131.6
MINRBJordan Mason129.1-2.1123.6130.3
MIAQBMalik Willis130.5-2.9131.2124
BALTEMark Andrews131.6-1.2127.3133.6
CARWRJalen Coker132.2-1.6133.2128.1
WASRBRachaad White129.8-6.5123.8122.9
HOUWRJayden Higgins133.1-3.9125.4132.9
SEAQBSam Darnold135.44.6138.9141.1
NYGRBTyrone Tracy133.8-4.9129.8128
HOUQBC.J. Stroud137.50.5141135
SEARBZach Charbonnet141.829.9162.6180.8
TENQBCam Ward137.7-2.8136.6133.1
FAWRStefon Diggs138.3-3.6134.3135.2
LACTEOronde Gadsden141.55.8143.4151.1
INDQBDaniel Jones142.3-0.5144.7139
DETRBIsiah Pacheco142.12.1149.2139.2
NYJTEKenyon Sadiq147.74.8149.7155.3
TBWRJalen McMillan142.83.4149.3143.2
HOURBWoody Marks144.31.2145.6145.4
SEAWRRashid Shaheed146.3-2.7138.7148.5
CARQBBryce Young147.41.7153.8144.4
NYJWROmar Cooper149.1-2.8140.7152
MINWRJauan Jennings150.4-3.8148.3144.8
JAXTEBrenton Strange149.56.2155.1156.3
NOTEJuwan Johnson152.51.6156.1152.2
JAXWRTravis Hunter153.8-12.3137.4145.7
WASTEChig Okonkwo150.4-1.8152145.2
NETEHunter Henry155.60.1150.5160.8
LACRBKeaton Mitchell150.5-7.1144.3142.4
ARIRBTyler Allgeier157.20.1157.3157.2
TENRBTyjae Spears158.1-2.1162.6149.4
LVWRJalen Nailor157.1-1.0154.2157.9
PITQBAaron Rodgers160.15.5170.2160.9
ARIQBJacoby Brissett164.519.5191.3176.7
MINTET.J. Hockenson161.81.9163.9163.6
FAWRTyreek Hill168.737.1207.2204.4
LVQBFernando Mendoza164.8-0.4167.3161.5
WASWRAntonio Williams160.63.7159.5169.1
LVWRTre Tucker163.5-9.8156.8150.6
DENRBJonah Coleman167.4-13.8143.7163.6
CLEWRDenzel Boston166.4-2.3160.7167.5
DETWRIsaac TeSlaa169.7-0.4170.3168.3
ATLRBBrian Robinson169.6-3.3166.3166.3
CLERBDylan Sampson170.8-8.6169.6154.9
NYJQBGeno Smith173.42.0178.9171.8
NORBAlvin Kamara173.27.3189.2171.8
HOUTEDalton Schultz173.6-2.3171.7171
SEATEAJ Barner180.6-6.7171.4176.5
SFWRDe'Zhaun Stribling175.4-5.1165.6175.1
FAWRDeebo Samuel177.6-12.3166.5164.1
CLEWRJerry Jeudy177.74.3185.2178.7
TENRBNicholas Singleton182.05.0176.8197.3
LACTEDavid Njoku183.29.0195.1189.3
MIAWRMalik Washington177.918.2203189.2
TBTECade Otton184.90.2184.1186.2
PITWRGermie Bernard183.9-4.2179.8179.6
PHIRBTank Bigsby181.5-6.3173.3177
SEARBEmanuel Wilson186.0-2.2193.2174.4
TENTEGunnar Helm186.2-6.6179.2180
DALWRRyan Flournoy181.7-13.0175.9161.5
LVRBMike Washington193.65.2191.6206
SFWRBrandon Aiyuk191.5-10.4178.1184.1
TENWRCalvin Ridley192.1-7.6182.7186.3
MIAWRChris Bell196.53.3193.9205.6
HOUWRTank Dell192.98.8196.9206.4
KCRBEmmett Johnson193.3-9.5182.5185.2
NEWRKayshon Boutte196.113.1207.1211.2
PHITEEli Stowers198.06.8197.6212.1
SEAWRCooper Kupp197.63.1207.5193.8
WASRBKaytron Allen196.0-10.1196.4175.4
PITTEPat Freiermuth197.8-9.3187.5189.5
NYJRBBraelon Allen201.1-3.4203.8191.6
LARTEColby Parkinson202.013.3213.7216.9
TBWRTed Hurst197.8-5.5181203.6
ATLQBTua Tagovailoa197.39.4207.8205.6
NYGWRMalachi Fields203.16.9204.4215.6
LACWRTre' Harris198.3-11.6187.3186.2
LACRBKimani Vidal208.60.2212.9204.7
SFWRChristian Kirk207.29.1214.1218.5
BUFRBRay Davis209.8-12.6201.9192.5
ATLWRZachariah Branch206.4-8.1196.7200
TBRBSean Tucker192.9-1.7189.8192.7
NYGWRDarnell Mooney211.5-21.1189.7191.1
CLEQBDeshaun Watson206.22.7211206.7
NYJWRAdonai Mitchell212.2-5.7210.8202.2
CLEQBShedeur Sanders217.32.3215.1224.2
LARTETerrance Ferguson213.9-10.7203.1203.3
MIATEGreg Dulcich207.2-3.5208.9198.4
ARIRBJames Conner213.31.0213.4215.2
BUFWRKeon Coleman214.73.7213.5223.3
BALRBJustice Hill216.7-8.8214.1201.7
SFRBKaelon Black218.0-4.9211.7214.5
ATLQBMichael Penix219.4-2.8213.6219.7
CINTEMike Gesicki218.5-9.9207210.1
PHIWRDontayvion Wicks218.8-7.4209.7213.2
LVQBKirk Cousins220.2-0.4215.3224.3
SEAWRTory Horton221.5-3.3212.2224.2
MINRBDemond Claiborne222.6-4.7214.4221.4
SFRBJordan James222.8-8.8210.3217.7
CARWRChris Brazzell222.3-1.7212.3228.9
BALQBTyler Huntley228.3-0.3216240
SFTEJake Tonges222.6-6.2212.4220.3
DENWRTroy Franklin223.2-8.5211.4218
MIAQBQuinn Ewers228.6-0.6216240
PITQBDrew Allar230.3-2.3216240
BALWRElijah Sarratt224.9-4.9210.8229.2
DENTEEvan Engram224.4-2.6215228.6
MINQBJ.J. McCarthy226.4-1.5215.9233.8
ARIQBCarson Beck226.2-6.1215.3224.8
FAWRDeAndre Hopkins226.61.4216240
DENWRPat Bryant226.3-8.7213.3222
FARBKareem Hunt226.11.9216240
FAWROdell Beckham227.30.7216240
FARBNick Chubb226.51.5216240
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
RotoWire Logo

Continue the Conversation

Join the RotoWire Discord group to hear from our experts and other NFL fans.

Top News

Tools

NFL Draft Kit Logo

NFL Draft Kit

Fantasy Tools

Don’t miss a beat. Check out our 2026 NFL Fantasy Football rankings.

Related Stories