How to Use Fantasy Football Mock Drafts to Identify Tier Breaks & Positional Runs

Using fantasy football mock drafts to identify tier breaks and positional runs. Learn to recognize value drop-offs, ADP trends and roster construction patterns.
How to Use Fantasy Football Mock Drafts to Identify Tier Breaks & Positional Runs

Any savvy fantasy football manager knows the overall value of using the RotoWire fantasy football mock draft tool to prepare for fantasy drafts. Getting practice in this critical area can easily put you ahead of other fantasy managers who don't take full advantage of this invaluable resource.

Having noted this, there are things that you can do with your fantasy mock drafts to make that time investment have an even greater impact on your fantasy football draft strategy. The most critical of these may be the identification of tier breaks and the corresponding positional draft runs that occur.

We will cover how to use fantasy mock drafts to identify those tier breaks and positional runs. We'll explain what tier breaks really mean, how you can track positional runs during mock drafts, learn how to compare mock results to fantasy football rankings and projections, discover the benefit of testing different draft positions and scenarios and learn how to turn mock draft insights into draft-day advantage.

Understanding What Tier Breaks Really Mean

Tier breaks represent significant projected drop-offs in the production at a position. These can be found in the RotoWire fantasy football projections. There will be value differentiation for the players in every tier, but you can rest easy knowing that the top and bottom players in that tier will be roughly equal in projected value.

The value differences come when you move from one tier to another. Identifying these gaps in fantasy football rankings will assist you in prioritizing players at that position on your fantasy football cheat sheet before the good players disappear.

"Beholding yourself to a tier-based strategy can sometimes be dangerous to the uninitiated," said RotoWire fantasy football expert Jake Letarski. "I'd personally rather take a WR3 and build depth, as opposed to reaching for a TE due to an imaginary line. But sometimes both strategies can ring true, where the last player in a tier is the best player available, that will make your current pick a no-brainer."

Tracking Positional Runs During Mock Drafts

One of the most useful elements of mock drafts is finding out when fantasy managers tend to draft quarterbacks, tight ends or running backs in clusters. This indicates the start of the dreaded player run. It means that once a player at that position is selected, you can fully expect to see many other players from that position to fly off the board.

If that happens when you aren't prepared for it, there is a chance that the fantasy football ADP rankings tier you were hoping to access won't be available to you at your next draft slot. That can be very harmful to your team if it happens once and can be truly disastrous if it occurs two or three times in the early rounds of a draft. That's why you want to be sure to watch these fantasy football ADP trends to anticipate and react to positional runs.

"Watch out for positional runs in salary cap drafts (aka auctions) as well," said Letarski. "You don't want to be caught in a bidding war for the last player in their tier or the last 'good' RB. Use RotoWire projections, along with the custom tiering features in the draft assistant, to help you quickly identify when a run is coming in drafts."

Comparing Mock Results to Rankings and Projections

The mock draft options that you receive when you subscribe to RotoWire get their best value when you use them in conjunction with other parts of the RotoWire fantasy football draft kit. A popular combination is reviewing mock draft outcomes vs rankings and projections. Doing this will allow you to confirm whether tier breaks are supported by data or if the drafting world may be throwing some proverbial curveballs into the mix.

If you do see that mock drafts are showing that fantasy managers are going their own route instead of following the herd, you can adjust your draft boards accordingly. When done properly, it can give you easily identifiable alternatives when draft day doesn't go as expected.

Testing Different Draft Positions and Scenarios

A positional run in the late rounds of a fantasy draft will often differ from one that occurs earlier. The early ones will often see every strong prospect selected within a single round, whereas a later round positional run may take longer to fully develop.

This is why it is important to run mock drafts from multiple slots. You will be able to see where tier breaks are occurring at various points of drafts and how long they will last. Doing so will allow you to shift roster strategies and stock your fantasy roster with quality players before the NFL depth charts are depleted of impactful prospects.

Turning Mock Draft Insights Into Draft-Day Advantage

If you take a disciplined approach, you can apply these mock draft lessons to your draft day strategy by building tier-based cheat sheets and preparing pivot options. This should include accounting for various news items from the latest NFL injury report. RotoWire is a leader in NFL injury news, so finding and adjusting your tiers and pivot options to these injury updates should be easy to do.

Don't forget that your goal here is to avoid panic drafting. You want to be ready when the unexpected happens and be able to capitalize on opportunities when others are chasing positional runs.

"Running plenty of mock drafts from your position will get you best prepared for any Player A vs. Player B dilemmas, essentially helping you avoid the aforementioned panic drafting," said Letarski. "If you're well-versed in mocks, you'll have an idea how your team might look no matter which turn you take at the fork in the road, and you'll be more comfortable judging your route. Instead of researching on the fly, you can focus your energy on how the rest of the draft is unfolding around you."

ABOUT THE AUTHOR
KC Joyner is one of the pioneers of the football analytics movement. He was a Senior Writer for ESPN, covering fantasy football, the NFL, college football, and the NFL draft for 14 years. He has also penned material for The Athletic, The New York Times and The Philadelphia Inquirer. KC's Scientific Football book series broke new ground in the football analytics world and was purchased by nearly half of NFL teams.
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