NFL Picks: Groupthink Edition

NFL Picks: Groupthink Edition

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Staff Picks is back for its 18th year. Back-to-back champion Jeff Erickson looks to win a third straight title, while Stopa and I try to bounce back from sub-.500 seasons (his was worse, thankfully.)

This week we have a whopping nine unanimous picks, a record, and this is the case despite the slate losing a game to a hurricane. It's either "great minds think alike" or an illustration of the herd mentality. I suppose we'll be judged on the results.

Not surprisingly, all five best bets are unanimous picks, and three writers have the same best bet, the Titans. Finally, it turns out DDD and I have the exact same picks, the first time I believe that has ever happened. It's hard to make the "great minds" case when you share one with DDD.

EricksonPianowskiLissStopaDel Don
Chiefs +8.5 at PatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriots
Jets +9 at BillsJetsJetsJetsJetsJets
Falcons -7 at BearsBearsFalconsBearsFalconsBears
Jaguars +5 at TexansTexansTexansTexansJaguarsTexans
Eagles -1 at RedskinsRedskinsEaglesRedskinsRedskinsRedskins
Cardinals -1.5 at LionsLionsCardinalsLionsCardinalsLions
Raiders +2 at TitansTitansTitansTitansTitansTitans
Ravens +3 at BengalsBengalsBengalsBengalsBengalsBengals
Steelers -8.5 at BrownsBrownsBrownsBrownsBrownsBrowns
Colts +3.5 at RamsRamsRamsRamsRamsRams
Seahawks +3 at PackersPackersSeahawksSeahawksSeahawksSeahawks
Panthers -5.5 at 49ers49ers49ers49ers49ers49ers
Giants +3.5
Staff Picks is back for its 18th year. Back-to-back champion Jeff Erickson looks to win a third straight title, while Stopa and I try to bounce back from sub-.500 seasons (his was worse, thankfully.)

This week we have a whopping nine unanimous picks, a record, and this is the case despite the slate losing a game to a hurricane. It's either "great minds think alike" or an illustration of the herd mentality. I suppose we'll be judged on the results.

Not surprisingly, all five best bets are unanimous picks, and three writers have the same best bet, the Titans. Finally, it turns out DDD and I have the exact same picks, the first time I believe that has ever happened. It's hard to make the "great minds" case when you share one with DDD.

EricksonPianowskiLissStopaDel Don
Chiefs +8.5 at PatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriotsPatriots
Jets +9 at BillsJetsJetsJetsJetsJets
Falcons -7 at BearsBearsFalconsBearsFalconsBears
Jaguars +5 at TexansTexansTexansTexansJaguarsTexans
Eagles -1 at RedskinsRedskinsEaglesRedskinsRedskinsRedskins
Cardinals -1.5 at LionsLionsCardinalsLionsCardinalsLions
Raiders +2 at TitansTitansTitansTitansTitansTitans
Ravens +3 at BengalsBengalsBengalsBengalsBengalsBengals
Steelers -8.5 at BrownsBrownsBrownsBrownsBrownsBrowns
Colts +3.5 at RamsRamsRamsRamsRamsRams
Seahawks +3 at PackersPackersSeahawksSeahawksSeahawksSeahawks
Panthers -5.5 at 49ers49ers49ers49ers49ers49ers
Giants +3.5 at CowboysGiantsGiantsGiantsGiantsGiants
Saints +3.5 at VikingsVikingsSaintsSaintsSaintsSaints
Chargers +3.5 at BroncosChargersChargersChargersChargersChargers
Best BetTitansTitansBrownsJetsTitans
2016 Unanimous Pick Record27-22-2
2016 Majority Pick Record138-124-5
2016 Record133-102-5122-113-5115-120-5108-127-5123-112-5
2015 Record134-114-8120-128-8114-134-8127-121-8121-127-8
2014 Record123-128-5140-111-5135-116-5124-127-5128-123-5
2013 Record132-114-10118-128-10123-123-10111-135-10128-118-10
2012 Record110-140-6125-125-6121-129-6143-107-6123-127-6
2011 Record121-128-7134-115-7124-125-7123-126-7127-122-7
2010 Record129-122-5134-117-5126-125-5136-115-5134-117-5
2009 Record123-130-3132-121-3131-122-3130-123-3126-127-3
2008 Record132-114-10128-118-10124-122-10125-121-10130-116-10
2007 Record127-120118-129127-120N/A130-117
2006 Record118-129N/A139-108N/AN/A
2005 Record121-126N/A127-120N/AN/A
2004 Record124-124N/A130-118N/AN/A
2003 Record121-126118-129124-123N/AN/A
2002 Record113-136123-126141-108N/AN/A
2001 Record124-113117-120118-119N/AN/A
2000 Record123-117134-106141-99N/AN/A

Unanimous/Majority Picks

This week we have a record nine unanimous picks out of 15 games: Patriots, Jets, Titans, Bengals, Browns, Rams, 49ers, Giants and Chargers. Last year we went 27-22-2 on unanimous picks and 138-124-5 on majority (three or more writers) picks.

Comments:

WriterComment
Erickson The Titans should be at least getting the standard three-point home advantage with the Raiders having to travel two time zones, but the Raiders are a trendy favorite for the season. The Titans have had a ton of early draft picks in recent years to bolster their defense, already have an elite offensive line and Mariota ready to make the leap. I was really conflicted about the Bengals-Ravens game. The Ravens have had a terrible offseason with injuries and player defections, and probably aren't that great. But the Bengals are also missing Vontaze Burfict, Adam Jones and Shawn Williams from their starting defense for this game. I should generically just take the points, but I'm still going to take the Bengals anyways. Toughest call on this slate for me, followed by Seahawks-Packers.
PianowskiIf the Titans were in the NFC, I'd be toying with them as a possible Super Bowl contender. As for the season, call it Patriots over Seahawks.
LissBest bets are Browns, Rams, Redskins, Giants, Lions and Titans. The Seahawks-Packers, Bengals-Ravens and Falcons-Bears were coin flips.
StopaNobody wants to pick the Jets, but the line is all the way up to nine, more than accounting for the tanking factor. And the Bills have their own problems. I also really like the Giants against a distracted Dallas team.
Del DonTennessee is one of my favorite teams to back this year, whereas Oakland is going to be one of my favorite to fade. The former is at home giving less than the standard three, so this best bet came quickly for me. When in doubt, go with the underdog, and this is especially true in Week 1. The toughest game by far for me was Packers/Seahawks. I'm fired up football is back.

The players:

• Jeff Erickson: RotoWire Senior editor, 2001, 2008, 2013, 2015, 2016 Staff Picks Champ. Writes the Weekly Rankings. Covers and roots for the Bengals.

• Scott Pianowski: Fantasy expert for Yahoo! Sports, and also contributes to Rotowire.com. 2009, 2011 and 2014 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the Patriots.

• Chris Liss: RotoWire Managing Editor, 2000, 2002, 2006 Staff Picks Champ, 2003, 2004 co-champ. Writes East Coast Offense, Beating the Book and the Survivor column in addition to Staff Picks. Covers and roots for the Giants.

• Mark Stopa: Staff Writer, 2010, 2012 Staff Picks Champ, Writes Run 'N' Shoot. Roots for the Bills.

• Dalton Del Don: Fantasy Expert for Yahoo! Sports, 2007 Staff Picks Champ. Roots for the 49ers.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Liss
Chris Liss was RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWire Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio from 2001-2022.
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