NFL Picks and Props for Week 16
The 2025 National Football League rolls on in Week 16. Are you not entertained? We have college football playoff games, NFL games on Thursday, Saturday, Sunday and Monday this week, etc. It seems like there is something exciting going on every day.
In recent weeks we have seen Mother Nature rear her ugly head, whether it's wind, rain, snow or just frigid temperatures. But, Sunday's action will resemble more of a fall afternoon, and weather should not impact things as much. Let's get started!
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Los Angeles Chargers at Dallas Cowboys Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Weather certainly won't affect the Chargers (10-4) and Cowboys (6-7-1) at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas, outside of that annoying sunlight that tends to come through the windows in afternoon games.
The Chargers picked up a gritty 16-13 road win against the Kansas City Chiefs, putting the final nail in the coffin of the defending AFC champs.
The Cowboys lost 34-26 to the Minnesota Vikings last week on Sunday Night Football, and their playoff hopes are all but gone.
Dallas has been a little better lately, but have allowed 3,793 passing yards with 8.0 yards per passing attempt with 31 touchdowns allowed through the air with six interceptions and 48 pass plays of 20+ yards. The Cowboys have also given up 12 pass plays of 40+ yards.
QB Justin Herbert had surgery on his non-throwing hand a couple of weeks ago, and he has played through the injury with a giant protective oven mitt-looking glove in the past couple of games. It has obviously bugged him, as he has completed just 31-of-55 passes for 349 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in the past two games combined.
However, it also has something to do with facing the defending champion Philadelphia Eagles at home, with their suffocating defense, and the desperate Chiefs in their place with elements. Look for Herbert to be much better with tons of time. The Cowboys D made J.J. McCarthy look NFL-caliber with 250 passing yards, two TD passes and a rushing score. Taking Herbert Over 243.5 passing yards is a slam-dunk play.
Chargers RB Omarion Hampton (ankle) returned from the Reserve/Injured list two games agao, and he has averaged 58.5 rushing yards per contest, with 14.0 carries for outing. He also had three receptions for 15 yards and a TD. We're expecting Hampton to go well over 48.5 yards on the ground. However, we're also going to look for Hampton to be a larger part of the offense catching the ball out of the backfield, as he continues to acclimate to every-down work.
For the Cowboys, WR George Pickens has managed eight receptions for just 70 yards with no touchdowns in the past two games, as WR CeeDee Lamb returning has really dented Pickens' targets and production. Let's go low on Pickens, as the Chargers allow the second-lowest passing yards in the NFL at 2,674 yards, and 6.3 yards per attempt.
The Bolts are third in the NFL with 17 interceptions, too, and we'll take QB Dak Prescott to be coaxed into at least one miscue.
Best Prop Pick: Chargers QB Justin Herbert - Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Chargers RB Omarion Hampton - Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Chargers RB Omarion Hampton - Over 1.5 Total Receptions (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Cowboys WR George Pickens - Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Cowboys QB Dak Prescott - Over 0.5 Passing Interceptions (-148 FanDuel)
Las Vegas Raiders at Houston Texans Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Like the game above, weather won't affect this game, as we stay in the Lone Star State for the Raiders (2-12) and Texans (9-5).
First, it's a little expensive, but we'll take QB Geno Smith to throw at least one interception, even though you'll pay a pretty penny. Still, like the Chargers above, the Texans D is opportunistic, ranking fourth in the NFL with 16 interceptions.
The Raiders have one of the worst offensive lines in the entire NFL, and we're going to take both Will Anderson Jr. (-205) and Danielle Hunter (-188) to get to Davis for at least one sack. Heck, you could take Denico Autry (+134) at plus-money, too, for at least one sack. We're keeping it short, but sweet, banking on the Houston defense to make life miserable for Davis and the Raiders.
Best Prop Pick: Raiders QB Geno Smith - Over 0.5 Passing Interceptions (-198 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Raiders DL Will Anderson Jr. - To Record Sack - Yes (-205 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Raiders DL Danielle Hunter - To Record Sack - Yes (-188 FanDuel)
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins Prop Plays
*Best lines at time of writing listed
Lastly, the Bengals aren't good defensively. In fact, they're awful, we're going to be looking to new Dolphins QB Quinn Ewers to make at least one mistake. The Bengals have 11 takeaways via interception, so while the defense isn't good, it can create turnovers. The rookie Ewers makes his first NFL start in place of the benched QB Tua Tagovailoa, and mistakes are inevitable.
In addition, nobody gives up more yardage to opposing tight ends than the Cincinnati defense. So, while Ewers will have mistakes, he is likely to rely upon veteran TE Darren Waller to be a security blanket, and he'll be super productive.
Best Prop Pick: Dolphins QB Quinn Ewers - Over 0.5 Passing Interceptions (-165 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Dolphins TE Darren Waller - Alt Receptions - 4+ Receptions (+132 FanDuel)
Best Prop Pick: Dolphins TE Darren Waller - Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Plays - Week 16
Chargers QB Justin Herbert - Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Chargers RB Omarion Hampton - Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Chargers RB Omarion Hampton - Over 1.5 Total Receptions (-114 FanDuel)
Cowboys WR George Pickens - Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Cowboys QB Dak Prescott - Over 0.5 Passing Interceptions (-148 FanDuel)
Raiders QB Geno Smith - Over 0.5 Passing Interceptions (-198 FanDuel)
Raiders DL Will Anderson Jr. - To Record Sack - Yes (-205 FanDuel)
Raiders DL Danielle Hunter - To Record Sack - Yes (-188 FanDuel)
Dolphins QB Quinn Ewers - Over 0.5 Passing Interceptions (-165 FanDuel)
Dolphins TE Darren Waller - Alt Receptions - 4+ Receptions (+132 FanDuel)
Dolphins TE Darren Waller - Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Best Prop Parlays - Week 16
Three-Player Chargers at Cowboys Props Parlay (+907 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Best Prop Pick: Chargers QB Justin Herbert - Over 243.5 Passing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Chargers RB Omarion Hampton - Over 48.5 Rushing Yards (-114 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Chargers RB Omarion Hampton - Over 1.5 Total Receptions (-114 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Cowboys WR George Pickens - Under 64.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Two-Player Raiders at Texans Props Parlay (+122 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Best Prop Pick: Raiders DL Will Anderson Jr. - To Record Sack - Yes (-205 FanDuel)
- Best Prop Pick: Raiders DL Danielle Hunter - To Record Sack - Yes (-188 FanDuel)
Two-Player Bengals at Dolphins Props Parlay (+139 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Dolphins TE Darren Waller - Alt Receptions - 4+ Receptions (+132 FanDuel)
- Dolphins TE Darren Waller - Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-114 FanDuel)
Three-Player QB Interception Props Parlay (+305 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Cowboys QB Dak Prescott - Over 0.5 Passing Interceptions (-148 FanDuel)
- Raiders QB Geno Smith - Over 0.5 Passing Interceptions (-198 FanDuel)
- Dolphins QB Quinn Ewers - Over 0.5 Passing Interceptions (-165 FanDuel)
