This article is part of our NFL Observations series.
On Saturday morning I drafted in the NFFC Classic contest, a 14-team league with an overall contest that has a $50,000 grand prize, and a $1,700 entry fee. My draft was live in Las Vegas, and then I sat in on Chris Liss's Primetime draft later that afternoon. You can see his draft here. I was drafting from the 12th slot, which was my second preference due to the third-round-reversal (3RR) setup. It's a full PPR league with three starting WR's and a flex. Here are the results:
To see a larger image of the draft board, click here:
1.12 Tyreek Hill - I wanted to be at the back of the draft because I don't see much change in overall value between the fourth or fifth pick and the 12th pick, while I get the benefit of better picks in the second and third rounds. Of course, the 4-5 turn is pretty dicey, but there's always going to be an inflection point and I see one of those points at pick 33-34. Hill wasn't my first choice for this spot (I was hoping for Aaron Jones or Nick Chubb first), and in fact this is the first time I've drafted him, if I recall correctly.
2.17 DK Metcalf - I had my chance at taking Saquon Barkley at a more reasonable price, but I just couldn't do it over Metcalf. Had the choice been between Barkley and DeAndre Hopkins, this might have had a different result. But I'm happy with the result, because I knew I'd be comfortable with later running back choices. As every bad college application essay concludes, "only time will tell."
3.31 James Robinson - It was really tempting to go with a third receiver in Chris Godwin here, but my best teams in this contest have been balanced between RB and WR, and I think there's value in Robinson (and David Montgomery) here as potential three-down backs. However, I knew the consequence would be that my favorite alternatives for my third WR spot would be gone by pick 4.54, which they were.
4.54 Josh Jacobs - The fourth round is for Helium Receivers, with Jerry Jeudy once again graduating to the fourth round at 4.8, and a big surprise here with Marquez Callaway jumping all the way to 4.6 (48)! I've seen Callaway gradually climbing up with Michael Thomas out and Tre'Quan Smith battling training camp issues, but this is far and away the earliest I've seen. But that's kind of the point - you pay big money for your entry, you get your guys, especially with an overall contest.
As for Jacobs, the natural consequence of these receivers getting pushed (along with Mike Davis going 4.1) is that some good backs are falling to the 4-5 turn - I would have been comfortable also taking Miles Sanders in this spot had Jacobs gone, and even Gus Edwards in a pinch.
5.59 Mark Andrews - Whether to take an early tight end or early quarterback is one of the critical decisions in every draft, but it's especially big in a deeper league. There's a real opportunity cost if you veer away from RB or WR, enough that I prefer to wait on either the TE or the QB - though I'd prefer not to wait on both. There's a pretty clear tier-drop after the first three tight ends, and again after the next three. I actually put Andrews at the top my second group of three TE's, ahead of Kyle Pitts and T.J. Hockenson. With this pick, I conceded that a top quarterback was unlikely for my team, though on occasion Justin Herbert has made it back - though he came nowhere close here.
6.82 Trey Sermon - When you're near one of the ends of the draft, it can occasionally help to see what your competition nearby your slot has done so far, to help resolve a 50-50 call in terms of position. Team 13 next to me was drafting online, but he hadn't taken a running back yet. Thus I made sure to go with Sermon ahead of my WR choice for the next round - sure enough, he later told Greg Ambrosius that Sermon would have been one of his picks in that pair. Hopefully I got the player right, but at least I got the ordering correct.
7.87 DJ Chark - Every week is Chark Week! But especially Week 1 against the Texans. Two-thirds of my "Jags-stack" was complete.
8.110 Mecole Hardman - My target here was Elijah Moore, but all along I knew it was unlikely he'd make it back - in the four Classic leagues so far his max pick is 109 and he's been steadily climbing up draft boards. Hardman is a fine pivot, however, and in previous drafts I'd been targeting Hardman ahead of Moore. Greedy Jeff wanted both receivers, however.
9.115 Trevor Lawrence - It only made sense to go with Lawrence given my exposure to Robinson and Chark, compared to other quarterbacks in this range. The better debate is whether I should have waited one more round - there was only one other team without a quarterback, and the wide receiver pool was drying up. The top wideout remaining on my board was Michael Gallup, who went one pick later. I think I should have rolled the dice and taken Gallup, and settled for another quarterback if someone else snagged Lawrence.
10.138 Jalen Reagor - There's been mixed reviews on Reagor this summer, with some buzz about him being with the second team early on, to him making plays the next day and in one of the preseason games. I'm betting on the talent emerging.
11.143 Chuba Hubbard - Hubbard's picture is a little cloudier now that Royce Freeman is in Carolina. I still view Hubbard as the top backup to CMC, but it's no longer a given.
12.166 Rob Gronkowski - I didn't necessarily need a second TE this early having drafted Mark Andrews, but I thought Gronk presented too much value at this spot to pass up.
13.171 Matt Ryan - My first quarterback is risky in Lawrence, so I wanted a solid, high-volume QB like Ryan as my backup.
14.194 Denver D/ST - There was a huge defense run in the 14th round, and in such a deep league - not just in league size, but also bench size - it's worth adding a premium defense if you still view it as such. The Broncos under Vic Fangio profile to be that team this year for me, and draw the Giants in Week 1.
15.199 Harrison Butker (Chiefs Team K) - I like getting the difference-making kicker with the late bye week, in this format in particular. Your mileage may vary.
16.222 Zach Pascal - It's not a sure thing that Parris Campbell is ahead of Pascal in the Colts' pecking order, and T.Y. Hilton is going to be out for a while.
17.227 Justice Hill - At this point in the draft, we're hunting for any sort of RB upside. Hill should be the pass-catching option in the Ravens backfield, if there is one.
18.250 Kylin Hill - Turned heads in camp, made the team - but it's going to take an injury before he sees the field.
19.255 Olamide Zaccheaus - Same logic as Pascal, but against Justin Gage and for the Falcons.
20.278 Elijah Mitchell - Another RB dart throw; the Niners spent a draft pick on Mitchell and he beat out Wayne Gallman for a roster spot.
Here's the full team (reminder, it's a 14-team league!) from the 12-spot:
QB - Lawrence, Ryan
RB - J. Robinson, Jacobs, Sermon, Hubbard, J. Hill, K. Hill, Mitchell
WR - T. Hill, Metcalf, Chark, Hardman, Reagor, Pascal, Zaccheaus
TE - Andrews, Gronk
K - Butker
D - DEN
