NFL Expert Picks: Week 18 Saturday Night Football Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Expert Picks: Week 18 Saturday Night Football Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

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Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers: Odds, Picks, and Predictions for Week 18

The Cincinnati Bengals (8-8) travel to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers (10-6) in an AFC conference matchup on Saturday Night Football. The Bengals are 3rd in the AFC North and look to stay alive in the AFC playoff race with a win. Meanwhile the Steelers are in 2nd and have a very slight chance at the division, but only if the Ravens lose to the Browns before this game  They are also playing for seeding, but could rest players in the 2nd half as well.

Cincinnati Bengals vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds

Bengals -2.0 (Fanatics -120) / Steelers +2.5 (Caesars Sportsbook +105)

Bengals ML (FanDuel -134) / Steelers ML (Caesars Sportsbook +122)

Total OVER 48.0 (BetRivers -109) / UNDER 48.5 (ESPN Bet -115) 

First-half spread: Bengals -0.5 (-105), Steelers +0.5 (-115)
Bengals total points: 24.5 (Over -105/Under -125)
Steelers total points: 23.5 (Over -105/Under -125)

The Bengals opened as 0.5 point home favorites in Week 1, and not much has changed since then even with the Steelers surprising season. The line has moved 2.0 points in favor of the Bengals as the Steelers have lost three in a row, while the Bengals have won four in a row. The total opened 45.5 and it dropped as low as 43.5, but it then climbed back up to 48.5 and now 47.5. 

The majority of the bets (75%) have come in on the Bengals, and the handle (79%) has also come in on Cincinnati which reflects where the "sharp" money has landed. There is a 4% difference on bets versus handle.

The total is seeing money on the Under at 65% of total bets, and 59% of the handle. The moneyline shows who has taken a position on the game, and the Bengals have received 71% of the bets and 70% of the handle. 

Key Injuries

Bengals - RB Chase Brown (Q), RT Amarius Mims (Q), DE Sam Hubbard (O), WR Tee Higgins (Q)

Steelers - CB Donte Jackson (Q)

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Bengals vs. Steelers Betting Picks 

These teams played each other Week 13 with the Steelers winning 44-38. 

The Bengals are 5-0 as road favorites and 7-1 ATS on the road this season. 

The Steelers have scored 40 points total in the last 3 games (Ravens, Eagles, Chiefs).

The first half total on the Bengals is all about getting it under 13 which means 1 touchdown and 2 field goals cashes.

Pat Freiermuth was money against the Chiefs and now gets another strong matchup against the Bengals, who allow the second most fantasy points to opposing tight ends.

I am avoiding any team bets that include the Steelers because I do not know what Mike Tomlin will do in the second half (assuming the Ravens beat the Browns). 

Bengals vs. Steelers Best Bet: Bengals Over 12.5 Points 1H (DraftKings Sportsbook -122)

Secondary Bet: Pat Freiermuth Over 33.5 Receiving Yards (Bet MGM -115)

Bengals vs. Steelers Prediction

The Steelers schedule did not do them any favors as they played the Eagles, Ravens, and Chiefs in three consecutive weeks. They are in the playoffs, but now have to face a very hot Bengals team that is still  (barely) alive. I look for this game to be competitive for at least the first half, and after that Mike Tomlin could decide that resting his starters is more important than playing for seeding. I like the Bengals to continue their winning streak and then root for the Broncos and Dolphins to lose on Sunday.

Bengals 27, Steelers 23

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Michael Rathburn
Known as “Rath” in the Daily Fantasy Sports (DFS) community, he has helped run operations for two prominent daily fantasy sports startups. Michael has taken his insider knowledge and expertise in daily fantasy sports to the content side. Rath won the 2016 FSWA "Baseball Article of the Year, Online" award and was a finalist for the FSWA Best Baseball Series in 2011.
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