This article is part of our NFL Draft series.
The period of free agency and pre-draft trades isn't over, yet it's probably safe to say that this has already been the most intense NFL offseason anyone can recall. The team-needs repercussions have been big, and it's becoming clearer what teams will target which positions in the draft.
It's time to revise the projected picks. I owe the idea of the Jay Cutler-to-Tennessee trade to Greg DePalma of Prime Sports, as he talked me out of the Jets trading up and talked me into the idea of Chicago doing it instead.
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1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jameis Winston*, QB, Florida State (6-4, 231)
Winston to Tampa Bay seems somewhat likely at this point, as the Buccaneers are desperate for a quarterback and Winston has a safe lead as the preferred conventional NFL quarterback prospect over Marcus Mariota. The in-state factor probably helps Winston's odds a bit.
2. Chicago Bears (from TEN) – Marcus Mariota*, QB, Oregon (6-4, 221)
-CHI trades No. 7, No. 71, Jon Bostic and Jay Cutler to TEN for No. 2
We can forgive both Cutler and Chicago/the general Midwest if all parties involved would prefer to cut ties, and Cutler's recently signed seven-year contract is surprisingly easy to move in a trade. Tennessee coach Ken Whisenhunt has a long history of preferring plus-sized, strong-armed pocket passers, and at around 6-foot-3, 220 pounds with a cannon arm, Cutler fits the profile. Mariota's run-heavy game, on the other hand, does not fit the Whisenhunt profile, but he would be Chicago's best alternative to Cutler for the foreseeable future.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars – Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson (6-3, 246)
There's still a lot of assumption in draft media that Dante Fowler will go before Beasley. I'm really not buying it. Good luck distinguishing Beasley from Von Miller.
4. Oakland Raiders – Leonard Williams*, DT, USC (6-5, 302)
I think Kevin White is the pick here if Williams and Vic Beasley are gone, but Oakland wouldn't be able to pass on Williams at this spot.
5. Washington Redskins – Dante Fowler*, (3-4) OLB, Florida (6-3, 261)
Fowler is a very imposing athlete who probably wasn't used quite correctly at Florida. Playing outside in a 3-4 alignment would hopefully allow him to more fully capitalize on his rare athletic gifts. Washington certainly could use him after moving on from Brian Orakpo.
6. New York Jets - Kevin White, WR, West Virginia (6-3, 215)
Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker are a strong starting duo at wideout, but the Jets lack depth behind them and both players, especially Marshall, have a history of injury troubles. Marshall is 31 years old, moreover, so selecting his long-term replacement at this pick makes plenty of sense.
7. Tennessee Titans (from CHI) - Amari Cooper*, WR, Alabama (6-1, 211)
With Cutler on board it would make sense for Tennessee to protect the investment by adding a legitimate WR1 candidate to the Tennessee roster.
8. Atlanta Falcons – Bud Dupree, (3-4) OLB, Kentucky (6-4, 269)
The Falcons place a big emphasis on pre-draft workouts, and Dupree might be the draft's most impressive physical specimen. At 6-foot-4 and just under 270 pounds, Dupree torched the Combine with a 4.56-second 40-yard dash, 42-inch vertical and 138-inch broad jump.
9. New York Giants - Brandon Scherff, OT/G, Iowa (6-5, 319)
Be it at tackle or guard, Scherff should be able to provide a substantial upgrade to the Giants offensive line.
10. St. Louis Rams – DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville (6-3, 209)
The Rams seem fairly crowded at receiver at a glance – all of Kenny Britt, Brian Quick (shoulder), Stedman Bailey, Tavon Austin and Chris Givens have seen extensive playing time with the team – but the team still doesn't have a clear No. 1 receiver.
11. Minnesota Vikings – Trae Waynes*, CB, Michigan State (6-0, 186)
Aside from Xavier Rhodes, the Vikings mostly have liabilities at corner.
12. Cleveland Browns – Breshad Perriman*, WR, UCF (6-2, 212)
Cleveland beat writers seem to think the Browns won't select a wide receiver in the first round, but I'm not pessimistic enough to attribute that level of incompetence to the Browns front office.
13. New Orleans Saints – La'El Collins, G, LSU (6-4, 305)
Jahri Evans is expensive and aging, so it makes sense for an increasingly run-oriented Saints roster to add a reliable mauler like Collins.
14. Miami Dolphins – Jaelen Strong*, WR, Arizona State (6-2, 217)
Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry are both very promising receivers, but neither is as big as Strong, who could be Miami's top red-zone option from Day 1 in this scenario.
15. San Francisco 49ers – Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut (6-1, 199)
Jones' combination of above average size and freakish athleticism make him an intriguing press corner prospect, and San Francisco is hurting at corner after losing Chris Culliver and Perrish Cox.
16. Houston Texans – Devin Funchess*, WR/TE, Michigan (6-4, 232)
Bill O'Brien's offense makes much use of the tight end position, but Garrett Graham, Ryan Griffin and C.J. Fiedorowicz aren't imposing pass-catching threats. Funchess' blocking responsibilities will be limited in the NFL, but it's all too obvious that he'd be a mismatch problem in a Jimmy Graham type of role.
17. San Diego Chargers – Randy Gregory, (3-4) OLB, Nebraska (6-5, 235)
If Gregory can avoid further disciplinary issues, this would be a very nice value for the Chargers.
18. Kansas City Chiefs – Andrus Peat*, OT, Stanford (6-7, 313)
Peat is a naturally huge and powerful blocker with surprising explosiveness. The Chiefs would try him out on the right side, but Peat might be a better long-term option at left tackle than disappointing former first overall pick Eric Fisher.
19. Cleveland Browns (from BUF) – Danny Shelton, (3-4) NT, Washington (6-2, 339)
Phil Taylor might not be the long-term solution for the Browns at nose tackle, and guys like Desmond Bryant and Randy Starks fit better at the end spots in a 3-4.
20. Philadelphia Eagles – Landon Collins*, S, Alabama (6-0, 228)
The Eagles need a strong safety to pair with Malcolm Jenkins, so this fit would be an obvious one.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Carl Davis, DT, Iowa (6-5, 320)
Davis' film isn't that great at times, but his excellent workout numbers and effective Senior Bowl showing could make him a target for a Cincinnati defense that needs help at tackle.
22. Pittsburgh Steelers – Shane Ray*, (3-4) OLB, Missouri (6-3, 245)
Ray's pro day workout featured some concerning numbers, especially his miserable three-cone time of 7.70 seconds, but Pittsburgh had no issue with selecting Jarvis Jones under similar circumstances.
23. Detroit Lions – T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh (6-5, 309)
I don't know whether the Lions would prefer him at guard or tackle, but I think Clemmings would be a starter at either one for them.
24. Arizona Cardinals – Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest (6-0, 188)
The Cardinals lost Antonio Cromartie in free agency, so adding a top cornerback talent at this pick seems like a high probability.
25. Carolina Panthers – Jake Fisher, OT, Oregon (6-6, 306)
The Panthers absolutely need to improve their talent at offensive tackle, and the second round might be too long to wait.
26. Baltimore Ravens - Arik Armstead*, (3-4) DE, Oregon (6-7, 292)
The trade of Haloti Ngata leaves Baltimore with a bit of a depth shortage on the interior, as unremarkable veteran Chris Canty is now third in line behind Brandon Williams and Timmy Jernigan. Armstead has Calais Campbell-like upside.
27. Dallas Cowboys – Melvin Gordon*, RB, Wisconsin (6-1, 215)
Assuming Dallas' running back depth chart doesn't change prior to the draft, this pick pretty much has to be Gordon or Todd Gurley.
28. Denver Broncos - Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State (6-5, 313)
Be it at guard or right tackle, Erving would earn a Day 1 starting role in Denver.
29. Indianapolis Colts – Todd Gurley*, RB, Georgia (6-1, 222)
The Colts might understandably be averse to spending another first-round pick on a supposed can't-miss running back, but going into next year with Frank Gore as the only capable starting runner probably isn't a great idea.
30. Green Bay Packers – Jalen Collins*, CB, LSU (6-1, 203)
The Packers could use help at cornerback after losing both Tramon Williams and Davon House in free agency.
31. New Orleans Saints (from SEA) – Danielle Hunter*, (3-4) OLB, LSU (6-5, 252)
I swear I'm not just intentionally giving the Saints LSU players, but here we are. Hunter is one of the draft's elite athletes on the edge, making him a desirable pass-rushing target for the Saints.
32. New England Patriots – Owamagbe Odighizuwa, DE, UCLA (6-3, 267)
The Patriots need interior linemen more than edge players, but Odighizuwa is too good of a talent to pass up here. Plus, he can play inside in four-man fronts.
Second round
33. Tennessee Titans – Malcom Brown*, DT, Texas (6-2, 319)
The Titans have a reasonable amount of talent on the defensive line, but it's hard to pass up on a player like Brown at this spot. He should pitch in snaps both at nose and end in the 3-4.
34. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – D.J. Humphries*, OT/G, Florida (6-5, 307)
The Anthony Collins experiment predictably was a bad idea, and the Buccaneers could use help at both tackle and guard.
35. Oakland Raiders – Nelson Agholor*, WR, USC (6-0, 198)
The Raiders would ideally find a bigger target at receiver, but Agholor would be an excellent catch as at least a long-term WR2.
36. Jacksonville Jaguars – Jay Ajayi*, RB, Boise State (6-0, 221)
Ajayi would hopefully be a big upgrade over Toby Gerhart, giving the Jaguars a running game foundation to help Blake Bortles develop.
37. New York Jets - Eli Harold*, (3-4) OLB, Virginia (6-3, 247)
Harold has some indications of rawness, but it's hard to ask for a better athlete at this point in the draft order.
38. Washington Redskins – Ronald Darby*, CB, Florida State (5-11, 193)
Aside from Byron Jones, Darby might be the most explosive athlete at his position in this draft. Washington is always in need of secondary talent.
39. Chicago Bears – P.J. Williams*, CB, Florida State (6-0, 194)
Kyle Fuller and Tim Jennings are a nice enough tandem at corner, but Jennings has size limitations and the Bears have no depth behind them.
40. New York Giants – Stephone Anthony, LB, Clemson (6-3, 243)
Almost no one has shown more impressive athletic testing than Anthony, who should appeal to a Giants organization that values disruptiveness in the front seven.
41. St. Louis Rams – Shaq Thompson*, OLB, Washington (6-0, 228)
Thompson was expected to go sooner than this when he declared for the draft, but a disappointing Combine could push him this far.
42. Atlanta Falcons – Maxx Williams*, TE, Minnesota (6-4, 249)
This would be an insane steal for the Falcons, but it's possible that Williams' underwhelming Combine might push him into this range.
43. Cleveland Browns – Jesse James*, TE, Penn State (6-7, 261)
James probably doesn't have the suddenness necessary to emerge as a high-volume pass catcher at tight end, but his size and linear explosiveness should allow him to pose a threat downfield and in the red zone.
44. New Orleans Saints - Eric Kendricks, (3-4) ILB, UCLA (6-0, 231)
Kendricks has problems shedding blocks and making plays toward the line of scrimmage, but his combination of athleticism and instincts allow him to limit big plays.
45. Minnesota Vikings – Preston Smith, DE, Mississippi State (6-5, 271)
The Vikings missed out on Michael Johnson in free agency, but adding Smith in the second round might be an even more worthwhile investment.
46. San Francisco 49ers - Sammie Coates*, WR, Auburn (6-1, 212)
Although he's received a lot of criticism for his hands, Coates' exceedingly rare athleticism makes him a worthwhile target for a San Francisco team that struggles to stretch the field.
47. Miami Dolphins - Marcus Peters*, CB, Washington (6-0, 197)
The Dolphins have a very solid roster for the most part, but cornerback might be an exception.
48. San Diego Chargers – Eric Rowe, CB/S, Utah (6-1, 205)
A super athletic CB-S tweener from Utah – Chargers fans might have heard this one before. Although he doesn't project to be the next Eric Weddle per se, Rowe's top notch size-speed combo means he shouldn't fall out of this round.
49. Kansas City Chiefs - Dorial Green-Beckham*, WR, Oklahoma (6-5, 237)
Andy Reid showed no qualms about working with DeSean Jackson, so maybe Green-Beckham's off-the-field history won't scare Reid as much as other NFL decision makers.
50. Buffalo Bills – Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor (6-3, 230)
Kevin Payne requested this pick, so I don't know what other choice the Bills have.
51. Houston Texans - Bernardrick McKinney, LB, Mississippi State (6-4, 246)
Brian Cushing's durability issues make him a liability, and the Texans otherwise don't boast many options at inside linebacker.
52. Philadelphia Eagles - Devin Smith, WR, Ohio State (6-0, 196)
If Chip Kelly missed DeSean Jackson last year, adding Smith would ease the pain.
53. Cincinnati Bengals - Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon (5-9, 192)
Ekpre-Olomu is recovering from a fall ACL tear but was considered a likely first-round pick prior to his injury. He should be a nice value if a team picks him in this range.
54. Detroit Lions – Eddie Goldman*, DT, Florida State (6-4, 336)
Goldman might not offer the pressure element that Detroit looks for, but he should help prevent Ndamukong Suh's exit from gutting the run defense.
55. Arizona Cardinals – Tevin Coleman*, RB, Indiana (5-11, 207)
Coleman is a big-play back more than a classic workhorse back, but splitting the workload between him and Andre Ellington should result in a lot of explosive plays for the Cardinals.
56. Pittsburgh Steelers – Justin Coleman, CB, Tennessee (5-11, 185)
The Steelers definitely need cornerback help, and Coleman is one of the most athletic corners in the draft.
57. Carolina Panthers – Ameer Abdullah, RB, Nebraska (5-9, 205)
Jonathan Stewart's revival season was impressive, but he still has a long history of injury troubles, and Abdullah's rare explosiveness would be a valuable addition to the Carolina offense.
58. Baltimore Ravens – Phillip Dorsett, WR, Miami (FL) (5-10, 185)
The Ravens lost their lead deep threat when Torrey Smith headed to San Francisco, so nabbing Dorsett here should regain their ability to take the top off a defense.
59. Denver Broncos – Jordan Phillips*, DT, Oklahoma (6-5, 329)
Phillips is like a less-hyped version of Michael Brockers, so this would be an excellent value for Denver if he should fall this far.
60. Dallas Cowboys – Xavier Cooper, DT, Washington State (6-3, 293)
Cooper has rare athleticism for a tackle, making him a good fit for the pseudo-Tampa Bay style of defense Dallas runs these days.
61. Indianapolis Colts – Donovan Smith, G/OT, Penn State (6-6, 338)
Smith doesn't seem to get much attention in draft media, but he should. He might be the most athletic lineman in the draft.
62. Green Bay Packers – Paul Dawson, (3-4) ILB, TCU (6-0, 235)
Dawson's Combine numbers were miserable, but an improved showing at his pro day implies that injury had something to do with it.
63. Seattle Seahawks – Alex Carter*, CB, Stanford (6-0, 196)
The loss of Byron Maxwell was a painful one for Seattle, but Carter has the height, length and athleticism to make a worthwhile replacement project.
64. New England Patriots – Craig Mager, CB, Texas State (5-11, 201)
I have no reason to believe Mager is projected to go this high, but I think the corner depth will thin quickly, forcing teams like New England to make unconventional moves. Mager has superb athleticism for a corner of his build.
